Weighing the pros and cons of a potential Bednar trade

This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpf’s Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SAN FRANCISCO -- For as automatic as David Bednar has been since returning from the Minors in mid-April, the Pirates’ closer had to grind Monday night at Oracle Park. He surrendered a trio of hits and a run -- snapping a streak of 23 straight outings without allowing an earned run -- but prevailed in the end, remaining perfect in his 17 save opportunities this year.

Sometimes it’s those outings where they’re not at their best that really shows what a pitcher has to offer. Consider it a reminder that Bednar is back in top form, having what is perhaps his best season if you look at his stats after returning from Indianapolis: a 1.70 ERA, 1.47 FIP and 50 strikeouts over 37 innings.

But each time Bednar has taken the mound this past week or so, there’s been a lingering thought on many a Pirate fan’s mind: Could this be his last appearance as a Pirate?

“No one is stupid. Everyone kind of knows what’s going on and knows who could be traded and who could be here,” Mitch Keller said Monday. “I’m not actively thinking, ‘Oh, this could be the last time I see David Bednar throw,’ I’m more worried about the game and how he’s doing. He’s my friend, so I want him to pitch well, do well and get the save. Everybody knows it's in the air and it could happen. I don’t think anyone is too focused on it.”

The Trade Deadline is this Thursday, and like always, there’s a demand for high-end relievers. Bednar is one of the best available, and a market has developed. They don’t need to trade him, as Bednar has one year of team control remaining via arbitration. However, the demand is high and he will be due a sizable raise on his $5.9 million salary, perhaps to an eight-digit salary. That’s not a bad price for a two-time All-Star closer who has a 2.37 ERA this season, but it would be a good chunk of the Pirates’ payroll.

The Pirates have leverage, and right now is a time to talk trades to see if something makes sense.

League sources have indicated to MLB.com that the Phillies and Tigers are interested and are potential landing spots. The Phillies are in need of a closer since José Alvarado will be ineligible for the postseason after being suspended for PEDs, and the Pirates have been scouting the Tigers’ farm system. Other reports have also named the Cubs and Rangers as possibilities.

The Post-Gazette has recently reported that the asking price is a club’s top-five prospect. Getting that type of return, especially if it’s a hitter, could bolster a lineup that needs all the help it can get. The Pirates are also aiming to compete in 2026, and having the ninth inning locked down would go a long way toward doing that.

The Pirates have other pitchers who could probably step into a closer role. Dennis Santana has been the team’s most consistent bullpen arm and has shown he can pitch in that spot (assuming of course he is not traded either). Isaac Mattson has been a pleasant surprise this year and could potentially move into a late-inning role, as could Braxton Ashcraft, if the Pirates opt to keep him in the bullpen rather than move him back to a starter down the road.

But those guys don’t have Bednar’s experience. Sure, there’s the fear that he could regress to 2024 form, but his curveball was revamped this winter and at Indianapolis, and now it’s playing better than ever. It may seem cliche, but those struggles have made him a better pitcher.

Bednar’s also a leader. His demotion to Indianapolis in April may have helped him regain his top form, but it did not sit well with the room at the time. Since returning, he’s been a glue guy again, an anchor on one of the best pitching staffs in the league. It may have been seen best on July 26 when catcher Joey Bart was on the verge of being emotional when talking about Bednar recording his 100th career save.

“We all know how much this city means to him and his family,” Bart told Hannah Mears of SportsNet Pittsburgh. “That’s a moment that he’ll never forget.”

There’s no easy answer for what to do with Bednar. It would normally be hard to improve a club in the short-term by trading away one of its best arms, but given the offense, it’s very possible. There’s no reason to force a trade, but right now, the Pirates have to listen.