PITTSBURGH -- Paul Skenes hasn’t had a chance to watch Bubba Chandler pitch this year. He doesn’t know how many hits he has allowed so far offhand or what the scouts are saying right now.
But is Skenes excited about the prospect of having Chandler join the Pirates’ rotation? Well, that’s obvious.
“He’s my buddy,” Skenes answered. “Looking forward to being with him every day, whenever that is. He’s going to bring a lot to the staff, I’m fired up to see that. I’m excited.”
It’s safe to say Skenes speaks for just about all Pirate fans who want to see Chandler in black and gold. He ranks as the No. 14 prospect in the game, according to MLB Pipeline. He also might be the top performing pitcher in Triple-A, ranking first in the International League in batting average against (.106) and WHIP (0.64), while ranking third in ERA (1.33).
If it wasn’t for Skenes, Chandler would probably be the organization’s top pitching prospect in a decade. Add Mitch Keller and Jared Jones to the mix, and the Pirates should have one of the most potent rotations in the game at some point this season.
The only question is when Chandler could debut. May is going to be pivotal for figuring out that answer, as well as checking the boxes the Pirates want to see.
Some of it is developmental, as you would expect from any 22-year-old pitcher. Chandler is far from a finished product, and a lot of that lies with his secondary offerings. His fastball is an elite offering and he can blow it by Minor League hitters, but he is going to need that curveball, slider and changeup to play, too.
"He's now got four potentially really good pitches, and Triple-A lineups, especially as we increase volume, will challenge him and how he's using those pitches,” general manager Ben Cherington said recently. “I would like to see him get some more reps with that, just the usage, where he's going in different situations, how he's using his stuff.”
Looking at Chandler’s pitch usage in Triple-A this year compared to the seven starts he made with Indianapolis last year, his fastball usage is roughly the same, with the most noticeable change in his mix being with his curveball. He’s throwing it more (5.3% to 11.5%), and it’s averaging more velocity and spin.
This year, Chandler's curve is averaging 84.1 mph compared to 81 mph last year, and 2,428 rpm of spin versus 2,276 rpm. You have to consider those are early season stats compared to August/September stats, but it’s getting good movement and a ton of whiffs (37.5%).
Continuing to develop the breaking stuff was expected. We saw times in Spring Training when Chandler would challenge himself to throw an offspeed pitch rather than a fastball in a pivotal count just so he didn’t come off as predictable.
Continuing to develop is part of the equation, but he also needs to fully stretch out as a starter. That will be happening in May.
So far, Chandler has maxed out at five innings a start, sitting in the 50- to 70-pitch range. That’s by design and with the understanding that he is probably going to throw a new career high in innings, having logged 111 in 2023 and 119 2/3 last year. He’ll blow past that this year.
The Pirates did something similar with Skenes last year. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison since 2024 was Skenes’ first full pro season, but like with their other young pitchers, the goal is to have Chandler pitch through the end of the season.
"I think it's similar but they're different people with different backgrounds,” manager Derek Shelton said. “Paul, it was his first professional season, where Bubba's actually played. To say there's some consistency to it, that's probably true, but they're different guys."
The goal is for Chandler to be ready to throw a fuller pitch volume by the end of May. He’s close to the Majors, and this is going to be a pivotal next month toward getting the Pirates’ prized prospect to Pittsburgh.