What's the Royals' strategy before the Trade Deadline?

This story was excerpted from Anne Rogers’ Royals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

KANSAS CITY -- With the Trade Deadline a week away, the Royals have decisions to make. And the choice between buying and selling is turning out to be more complicated than just one or the other.

After a 3-3 road trip, the Royals are 4 1/2 games out of an American League Wild Card spot. They’re one of six teams within 4 1/2 games of a spot, so the Royals aren’t the only team trying to figure out the best path forward at the Deadline.

The Royals’ schedule makes things interesting. They still play the Guardians (2 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot) twice, including this weekend. They play the Twins (five games back) two more times. They head to Toronto (first place in the AL East) and then Boston (holding the last Wild Card spot) right after the Deadline. They’ll play the Rangers (1 1/2 games back) once more, a four-game set in August. And they still play the Angels (five games out) twice in September.

A lot can happen when all these teams start to match up. So the Royals are not completely out of playoff contention. They also have to play very well for the next two months to ensure they actually get in and stay in contention.

What happens between now and next Thursday at 5 p.m. CT will reveal a lot about how the Royals view their roster for the end of 2025 -- and what they can do in ‘26.

What they need

It’s no secret that the Royals are looking for hitters who can help their offense this year and in the future. Their desire to find outfielders who have years of control is nothing new. That has been stated going back months now, and it’s as glaring of a need as any.

Kansas City’s outfield has a .574 OPS and 56 wRC+ this year, both of which rank last in MLB.

It’s really as simple as that. Perhaps they find a more versatile hitter who can bounce between the infield and outfield, but the Royals’ infield is pretty set. Outfielders who can hit are the priority.

Given the state of the Royals’ pitching depth, they might look to add there, even if it’s smaller deals, like when they acquired Triple-A righty Joey Krehbiel from the Rays for cash considerations on Wednesday.

What they can give up

Despite interest in hitters like Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia from front offices looking to upgrade their own offenses, it doesn’t seem likely the Royals will deal from their core players -- because they still believe in that core for ‘26. Plus, the Royals can’t really spare any offense unless the return far outweighs what they’re giving up.

The Royals’ strength, though, is pitching, and teams are always looking for pitching at the Deadline. Right-hander Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal as the Deadline nears. He has a 2.95 ERA in 19 starts and has proven himself to be one of the best starters in baseball over the last two-plus seasons, including last year’s runner-up finish in AL Cy Young voting.

Lugo, 35, will likely turn down his $15 million player option for 2026 to become a free agent. That means teams would likely view him as a rental player, but even rental starters could net a solid package from contending teams eager to add to their rotation for a playoff run.

Right now, the Royals are hesitant to trade Lugo, who is comfortable in Kansas City and is a major part of its rotation and clubhouse. They feel confident about potentially resigning him this offseason, similar to what they did with Michael Wacha at the end of 2024.

Losing Lugo makes it that much harder for the Royals to envision a playoff run in ‘25, too. Their depth is thin as it is, even with Michael Lorenzen (left oblique strain) eyeing an early August return and Cole Ragans (left rotator cuff strain) eyeing a late August return.

But if Lugo can get the Royals another core bat? They should and will listen.

Relievers to deal?

The Yankees have reportedly been interested in Royals closer Carlos Estévez, and there would likely be more teams inquiring about the 32-year-old who is tied for the AL lead in saves (26) if the Royals made him truly available. Estevez is in the first year of a two-year, $22 million deal with a team option for ‘27, so he’s far more than a rental player.

But Estévez is not the only reliever garnering interest, according to a source. The Royals could use some of their relief arms to help with a trade package, including Steven Cruz, Jonathan Bowlan, Andrew Hoffmann and Evan Sisk.

Prospect depth

The Royals have some low-level pitching they could use in deals, but their prospect strength is obvious: Going back to last year’s Trade Deadline, teams have called about the Royals’ catching depth. Catchers represent three of the Royals’ Top 10 prospects and four of the Top 30. Blake Mitchell (2023 first rounder) and Carter Jensen (2021 third rounder) are a power-packed 1-2 punch atop the list.

While Mitchell is coming back from hamate surgery, Jensen’s stock has risen quite a bit this year. After hitting .292 in Double-A, he has a 1.043 OPS with seven homers in 16 games in Triple-A.

Ramon Ramirez (No. 8) is also rehabbing from a hamate injury, but the anticipation is he’ll be back in Single-A Columbia next week. He and Mitchell would be intriguing for teams looking for younger talent still developing; while Jensen is only 22 years old, some say he’s close to being Major League-ready.