PHILADELPHIA -- Even if the Blue Jays have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, all of the attention on Friday was on a Triple-A game 400 miles away.
Max Scherzer made his first rehab start, throwing 56 pitches over 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts for Triple-A Buffalo at Sahlen Field. This is what the Blue Jays hope will be one of the final steps in a long, complicated road back for the likely future Hall of Famer.
“It will be the most-watched Triple-A game for a while for me,” John Schneider said prior to Friday’s 8-0 loss to the Phillies. “Or, at least the game I’m most updated on.”
And now … we wait.
All along, stretching back to Spring Training when Scherzer first felt this recurring right thumb issue pop up again, he’s circled the 50-pitch mark as the danger zone. Bullpen sessions are fine, but when he starts to stretch out into longer appearances, that’s when the problems have arisen.
This isn’t your typical rehab assignment, where a pitcher is presumably back to 100% health and simply building up their workload again. There’s still an element of the unknown at play here, which is what makes each day so important.
“I want to see how Max feels tomorrow, to be honest with you,” Schneider said. “I couldn’t care less about his line score. I want to see 60-65 pitches, I want to see that the fastball velo is good and that he’s coming out of it healthy, really. The main thing is to see how he feels tomorrow and just keep going in that direction.”
By the numbers
Given that we only have three innings of data to work with from Scherzer’s lone start in 2025, it’s more useful to look back to his ‘24 numbers with the Rangers. Prior to his injury last year, he was able to be effective enough at those velocities with a 3.95 ERA, so those velocities can be framed as the baseline.
2024 velocities (and usage)
Fastball: 92.5 mph (44.3%)
Slider: 85.0 mph (22.3%)
Changeup: 82.8 mph (13.9%)
Curveball: 74.7 mph (13.9%)
Cutter: 86.6 mph (6.0%)
You can take these and compare them to what Scherzer did Friday night in Buffalo. Yes, 56 pitches is a very small sample size, but that’s all we have to work with until Scherzer makes his next start.
Friday night velocities
Fastball: 91.9 mph
Slider: 83.3 mph
Changeup: 83.4 mph
Curveball: 74.1 mph
Cutter: 85.7 mph
"It's nice to face somebody else and be in a real game," Scherzer said after his start. "You definitely take it to another level, it's a different level of competition. So, on the mend here and try to get back as fast as possible. ...
"I'm not celebrating anything until I'm actually back in the big leagues."
Scherzer’s fastball velocity is most important here, and early on, it looked particularly encouraging. He was sitting at 93 mph and even touched 94 mph in the early innings. But he ended up sitting more in the range of 91-92.5 mph later in his outing, and his final two fastballs were clocked at 87.8 and 89.5 mph.
“We were looking at the pitch count, the velo, the stuff and how he felt after. He said he felt good after,” Schneider said after the game. “He’s going to shoot over here tomorrow and check in with us to see how he’s recovering. I think that, overall, he was pleased with it. I haven’t talked to him yet, but looking at the line and looking at the stuff, a pretty good first step.”
What comes next
In a perfect world, Schneider conceded, Scherzer would be making his next start with the Blue Jays, but we don’t live in a perfect world.
“He’ll probably need at least one more,” Schneider said. “The plan right now is for him to meet us here, probably throw a bullpen in between and then go back to do another one on normal rest.”
That would put Scherzer on track to pitch next Wednesday for the Bisons when they’re on the road in Worcester, Mass., which is about 40 miles west of Boston. Thursday is possible, too, if the Blue Jays prefer to give Scherzer the extra day as he builds up, but regardless, this could put Scherzer on track to return Toronto’s rotation during a series that everyone has circled.
The Yankees visit Toronto from June 30-July 3, and if the Blue Jays keep playing like they have been, that series could frame the top of the AL East for the month of July as we approach the Trade Deadline. Are the Blue Jays legitimate division contenders instead of just a Wild Card team? If all goes well, Scherzer could be part of that answer soon.