Yordan Alvarez is back and looking better than ever.
In what was looking like a potentially lost year, Alvarez returned on Aug. 26 after missing nearly four months due to a hand injury. Since returning, Alvarez has a .386/.471/.596 slash line in 68 plate appearances with three home runs, 10 walks and eight strikeouts. Any thoughts about a diminished -- or perhaps not fully healthy -- version of Alvarez coming back for Houston have vanished.
Perhaps, that’s not a surprise. After all, this is a career .297/.389/.573 hitter with 170 home runs in 674 career games. Since debuting in 2019, his career 163 OPS+ only trails Aaron Judge’s 185 clip among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances. Alvarez’s combination of prodigious power, excellent bat to ball skills and elite plate discipline have been well-established.
But considering the timing of Alvarez’s return as an elite hitter, the state of the Astros roster (you might have seen their extensive list of injuries) and Houston’s current place in the standings -- the Astros are tied with the Mariners for first place in the AL West -- this could have huge implications for the state of the 2025 postseason.
The following numbers are entering Saturday’s games.
Yordan’s excellence since returning
It certainly doesn’t take a lot of convincing to say that a hitter with a 1.067 OPS since returning in late August has been one of baseball’s top producers. That OPS is 12th-best among any hitter with 50 plate appearances since Alvarez returned.
What’s perhaps more notable is how hard Alvarez is hitting the ball and the lack of swing and miss that has come with it.
Alvarez’s numbers since Aug. 26 vs. career norms
xwOBA: .474 vs. .418
Avg. exit velocity: 95.5 mph vs. 93.6 mph
Hard-hit rate: 62.0% vs. 53.2%
Barrel rate: 16.0% vs. 16.8%
Whiff rate: 21.9% vs. 22.4%
Chase rate: 24.5% vs. 27.1%
Yes, we’re dealing with a 16-game sample, but this isn’t exactly out of character for Alvarez. Most importantly, however, is the fact that he’s seemingly proven that his hand is fully healthy and that Alvarez is back to being one of the most feared hitters in baseball.
Alvarez was initially placed on the injured list on May 5, this after he hurt his hand at some point in late April. The Astros slugger never quite got going at the beginning of the year, posting a .646 OPS with three home runs in 29 games before being placed on the injured list. After having numerous setbacks during his rehab process, it was anything but certain that Alvarez would return to his normal form, if returning at all, this season.
Instead, Alvarez has hit the ground running since late August, prompting optimism for the Astros, and a warning sign for the rest of the potential playoff teams.
Why this version of Alvarez can alter the postseason
Far be it from me to convince you why Alvarez operating at full force could be one of the biggest X-factors in the postseason. But let’s dive into it anyway.
Postseason Yordan has been nearly as good as the regular season version, no small feat considering the uptick in competition and the sheer stakes of the postseason, especially for an Astros team used to making deep playoff runs. Alvarez owns a career .944 OPS in the postseason, not terribly far off from .962 OPS in the regular season.
Alvarez’s career 156 wRC+ in the postseason is fifth-best all time among players with at least 200 plate appearances, only trailing Bryce Harper (171), Carlos Beltrán (169), Nelson Cruz (159) and Albert Pujols (156). Pretty good company.
While the Astros were swept in two games in the Wild Card Series against Detroit last year, you don’t have to go too far back to remember Alvarez’s postseason heroics. Let’s recap:
2023 postseason: Alvarez homered six times -- half of his career postseason total -- in 11 games against the Twins and Rangers. That included three straight games with a homer in the ALDS vs. Minnesota, including two home runs in Game 1. And while the Astros ultimately lost in seven games to Texas in the ALCS, Alvarez had 13 hits and two home runs, including a three-hit effort in their Game 7 loss.
2022 postseason: No, this postseason was not as impressive on the whole -- he had a .734 OPS in 13 games -- but boy, did he make his moments count. In Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Seattle, Alvarez hit a dramatic walk-off home run against Mariners pitcher Robbie Ray. In Game 2, he hit a go-ahead, game-winning home run against Luis Castillo to give Houston a 2-0 series lead. And in Game 6 of the World Series against the Phillies, Alvarez hit a game-winning, 450-foot three-run homer that secured Houston’s second World Series.
2021 postseason: Alvarez had a 1.023 OPS in 16 games, including a 1.408 OPS and 12 hits in the ALCS against the Red Sox, where he took home ALCS honors.
2019 postseason: Alvarez had a 1.112 OPS in seven World Series games against the Nationals as a 22-year-old rookie.
You get the point. Alvarez is not someone who has simply raked in the regular season -- he has an extensive track record of performing at an elite level when the games matter most. Based on what we’ve seen in recent weeks, there’s good reason to believe Alvarez is operating at full health, which bodes well for Houston in the playoffs.
Of course, the Astros would like to hold onto the division, but they’re a pretty safe bet to make the postseason at this point. When you evaluate the state of the rest of the playoff field, there’s no reason to believe that this current Astros team with a fully-functioning Alvarez can’t make a deep playoff run.
Even with the influx of injuries this year and questions of lineup depth and in the bullpen without Josh Hader right now, the Astros still feature plenty of offensive firepower and a rotation headed by two likely Cy Young Award candidates in Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. With Alvarez back to his usual level, Houston’s chances of reaching the World Series yet again have increased dramatically.