As has become the custom in the bonus-pool era, the team with the No. 1 overall selection isn't tipping its hand and giving up any negotiating leverage. With nine days to go before the Draft begins during All-Star Week in Atlanta, the Nationals still are weighing the merits of as many as eight candidates.
That group includes all or most of the two best high school shortstops (Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits), the top four college pitchers (Kade Anderson, Jamie Arnold, Liam Doyle, Kyson Witherspoon), the best high school arm (Seth Hernandez) and the top college position player (Aiva Arquette). Most industry sources expect the decision ultimately to come down to Holliday vs. Anderson.
This first-round projection features six prep shortstops plus Hernandez in the top 15 picks, compared to two high schoolers going that early last year and four in 2023. That reflects the strengths and weaknesses of this crop, which is lighter on college bats than usual.
Detailed scouting reports, grades and video for all players mentioned below can be found on MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 250 list.
1. Nationals: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 2)
Anderson fills a greater need and will get to Washington quicker than Holliday, and he might cost a little less as well. If we're assigning percentage chances for this pick, I'd say Anderson 45 percent, Holliday 40 percent, Arquette 5 percent, Hernandez 5 percent, Willits 5 percent.
2. Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 8)
The Angels love to expedite their first-rounders to the Majors and could do so with any of the top college southpaws (Anderson, Doyle, Arnold), all of whom are in their sights. Rumors persist that Auburn outfielder/catcher Ike Irish could do a discount deal in the top five -- he isn't guaranteed 75 percent of slot value because he didn't attend the Draft Combine and have a medical exam there -- and he could fit here. They also have spent a lot of time on Willits, a top-five talent who skipped the Combine, and fellow prep shortstops JoJo Parker and Daniel Pierce, who fit more in the 7-15 range but did undergo physicals at the Combine. Parker and Pierce wouldn't seem to merit a $7,689,525 bonus (75 percent of slot at No. 2) or have any chance getting pushed down to the Angels' next choice at No. 47, however.
3. Mariners: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 3)
Anderson would be an obvious choice for the Mariners but seems unlikely to get to them. They're intrigued by Hernandez, who may be the most talented player available but comes from a demographic (high school right-hander) that usually scares off teams at the top of the Draft. If they can't bring themselves to take Hernandez, they could grab one of the other college arms or opt for Arquette. Don't rule out Irish, who several clubs believe is the best all-around offensive player in the college class.
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4. Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)
The biggest lock in the Draft is that the Rockies will take Holliday if he gets to them, and he might get paid more here than at No. 1. Anderson seems like the only pitcher they'd strongly consider, with Arquette and Willits as other possibilities.
5. Cardinals: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 11)
Assuming the Cardinals won't get a shot at Holliday or Anderson, this decision may come down to cutting a deal with Irish or dipping into the deep prep shortstop pool for Parker or Willits.
6. Pirates: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)
It's hard to project the teams in the back half of the top 10 with little certainty of which players go ahead of them, as Holliday and Anderson are the only locks. The Pirates will sift through some combination of Hernandez, Arnold, Willits, Arquette, Carlson, Doyle and Witherspoon while also considering discount deals.
7. Marlins: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS (No. 5)
It's no secret that the Marlins covet Willits, though they also have an affinity for Parker as well. Irish and Carlson are two more options.
8. Blue Jays: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
The Blue Jays are mostly associated with college arms and high school shortstops, which not coincidentally are the two most fertile areas at the top of the Draft. This feels like Arnold's floor and Witherspoon could land here if he's the final top-tier arm remaining. They also have strong interest in Parker and could take Willits or Carlson.
9. Reds: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)
The Reds will take the best available player who remains on their board. That could be Hernandez, whose only destinations before this appear to be the Pirates and Mariners. Other possibilities from the consensus top tier include Carlson, Witherspoon and Parker.
10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 9)
The White Sox are locked in on high school shortstops and Parker may be their favorite from a group that includes Willits, Carlson and Kayson Cunningham. Tennessee second baseman Gavin Kilen looks like the top college possibility.
11. Athletics: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona (No. 16)
After hitting on advanced college bats Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz with their last two first-rounders, the A's could take that route again with Irish, Summerhill or Kilen. Witherspoon could be tempting, and they also could be the ceiling for UC Santa Barbara right-hander Tyler Bremner.
12. Rangers: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek (Ga.) HS (No. 13)
The Rangers appear to be looking for offense, with leading contenders such as Irish, Parker, Pierce and prep third baseman Gavin Fien.
13. Giants: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 10)
There's usually a guy who looks like a lock for the top 10 but falls, and in this scenario, it's Witherspoon. That would be a boon for the Giants, who otherwise would ponder college bats (Irish, Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston, Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette, Summerhill), prep shortstops (Pierce, Cunningham) and Bremner.
14. Rays: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 18)
While the Rays have a track record of taking high schoolers and shortstops in the first round, the better play might be to get a pitcher at No. 14 if Witherspoon or Bremner is available, then land a prep shortstop with one of their two supplemental first-rounders.
15. Red Sox: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS (No. 12)
The Red Sox could go in several directions here. Hall gives off some Trea Turner vibes and could really take off with the organization's bat speed and strength program. They drafted Kilen in high school, while Houston and Summerhill are two more college position players who could interest them. So might Witherspoon, Bremner or Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood from the college pitching ranks. Boston is linked repeatedly to Fien and may be able to float him to No. 33 with its $12.4 million bonus pool.
16. Twins: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest (No. 15)
This could be the start of a run on college position players for at least five of the next six clubs. The Twins are on several college up-the-middle players, including Summerhill, Houston, Kilen, LaViolette, Arkansas shortstop Wehiwa Aloy and Coastal Carolina catcher Caden Bodine. Wood, Pierce and Hall also get mentioned here.
17. Cubs: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas (No. 17)
The Cubs could take a prep shortstop such as Pierce if he makes it to No. 17 but they appear to be leaning toward collegians. Bat possibilities include Aloy, Summerhill and Kilen, while arms such as Bremner or Wood could make sense.
18. Diamondbacks: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina (No. 32)
The top catcher in the Draft, Bodine could land in the middle of the first round with his elite contact and framing skills. Houston, Bremner, Kilen, Wake Forest outfielder Ethan Conrad and Tennessee corner infielder Andrew Fischer are other college candidates. Many teams note that 5-foot-10 sparkplug Slater de Brun, a high school outfielder, is a Diamondbacks-style player.
19. Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS (No. 25)
The two names that come up most often with the Orioles are two of the best power hitters in the Draft, Neyens and LaViolette. Aloy and Houston could fit here as well.
20. Brewers: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M (No. 20)
LaViolette entered 2025 as a potential No. 1 overall pick and the Brewers never would have expected a shot at him before his up-and-down junior season. Houston, Aloy, Kilen and Wood are more college possibilities.
21. Astros: Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee (No. 21)
Aloy, LaViolette or Kilen would make it four straight Astros first-round picks who were college up-the-middle players with offensive upside. Among the high school crop, Neyens gets linked to Houston a lot.
22. Braves: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas (No. 23)
The Braves are one of the few teams mentioned with more pitchers than hitters. Wood has one of the best fastballs in the Draft and threw a 19-strikeout no-hitter at the Men's College World Series in his final start, but he also missed two months with shoulder issues. Other arms to consider: Louisville right-hander Patrick Forbes, Alabama righty Riley Quick and the top prep left-hander, Kruz Schoolcraft.
23. Royals: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset (Ore.) HS (No. 19)
The Draft could flip from that college run to a stretch of four consecutive high school picks for teams that tend to focus on younger talent. Schoolcraft won't give up his Tennessee commitment for a slot bonus, but the Royals have a large pool ($12.8 million) and Brian Bridges may love prep southpaws more than any other scouting director. Hitting options include third basemen Fien and Josh Hammond, outfielder de Brun and middle infielders Sean Gamble and Tate Southisene. Quick is a college candidate, but maybe more at No. 28.
24. Tigers: Kayson Cunningham, SS/2B, Johnson (Texas) HS (No. 14)
Cunningham was the best hitter on the high school showcase last summer but seems to be the prep shortstop dropping further than expected. Plan B could be de Brun with Neyens, Hammond and Gamble also in the mix.
25. Padres: Slater de Brun, OF, Summit (Ore.) HS (No. 24)
The Padres are contemplating many of the same position players as the Royals and Tigers, and prep middle infielders Ryan Mitchell and Dax Kilby could be sleepers here. They also aren't afraid of high school arms and could look at Schoolcraft (who would have trouble fitting in their $6.6 million bonus pool) and Aaron Watson, among others.
26. Phillies: Sean Gamble, 2B/OF, IMG Academy (Fla.) (No. 27)
The Phillies could take a high school first-rounder for the sixth straight Draft and have been tied to many of the same position players mentioned with the three clubs above. If they want a pitcher, they're more likely to take a collegian such as Wood or Quick.
27. Guardians: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest (No. 28)
Led by Conrad and Fischer, college bats come up most frequently with the Guardians. Also mentioned: outfielders Devin Taylor (Indiana), Cam Cannarella (Clemson) and Mason Neville (Oregon), and catchers Bodine and Luke Stevenson (North Carolina).
Supplemental first-round picks
28. Royals: Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian Academy (N.C.) (No. 26)
29. Diamondbacks: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee (No. 29)
30. Orioles: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina (No. 33)
31. Orioles: Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana (No. 30)
32. Brewers: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson (No. 36)
33. Red Sox: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak (Calif.) HS (No. 22)
34. Tigers: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy (Ill.) (No. 57)
35. Mariners: Max Belyeu, OF, Texas (No. 34)
36. Twins: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian Academy (Fla.) (No. 45)
37. Rays: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville (No. 31)
38. Mets: Mason Neville, OF, Oregon (No. 35)
39. Yankees: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama (No. 38)
40. Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B/OF, Oaks Christian (Calif.) HS (No. 37)
41. Dodgers: JB Middleton, RHP, Southern Mississippi (No. 41)
42. Rays: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan (Ga.) HS (No. 62)
43. Marlins: Charles Davalan, OF, Arkansas (No. 54)