We have come to the end of the first full month of the MLB season. Can you believe it? Weren’t we just watching those Tokyo Series games yesterday?
Alas, it really is May, a new month … and one that might end up answering some of those urgent questions that April ended up posing. We’ve got five more full months of baseball moving forward, but May will be an urgent, pivotal one for many, many teams. We’re going to think a lot differently about how this season is going on May 31 than we do today.
What are the big questions May will answer? Let’s take a look.
1) How long can Judge stay around .400?
Aaron Judge, as my colleague Mike Petriello astutely pointed out, is in the midst of one of the all-time heaters in baseball history; it just turns out that this “heater” has lasted a full calendar year. But of all the runs at history we all imagined Judge possibly making this season, did anyone in the world imagine he’d be taking a shot at .400? Judge has only been above .300 twice in his 10-year career, but he’s at .427 heading into May, just another statistical category in which he’s leading the Majors.
Our Sarah Langs has tracked the latest in each season a qualified player was hitting over .400, and Judge has already passed Jose Altuve’s mark of 18 games last season. Luis Arráez made it 78 games in 2023. If Judge can even approach that, it’s fair to say that people are going to lose their ever-loving minds.
2) Can the Orioles turn it around?
No team has been more disappointing so far than Baltimore. The general consensus on the Orioles heading into the season was that while they probably should have added to their rotation in the offseason, their young hitters would take such huge steps forward that they’d score enough runs to more than make up for it. Well, the starting pitching has been even more of a problem than people anticipated (29th in MLB with a 5.47 ERA), thanks to injuries and some tough starts. (We love you, Charlie Morton, but it sure looks like it’s getting dark out there.)
More surprising is that most of those young hitters have spent the season idling, or even slumping. Even Gunnar Henderson is batting just .228 with two homers after missing the first seven games of the season. And so, a team that finished fourth in the Majors in runs per game in 2024 (4.9) is down to 20th this year (4.0).
It has led to a miserable April, one that comes on the heels of a difficult second half to 2024 and a quick October exit. (In fact, Baltimore is 48-60, postseason included, since last July 4.) There is still so much young talent on this team, and there are reasons to hope the rotation will get some reinforcements soon. But this was supposed to be the season the Orioles took a step forward. If May is anything like April was, there might be some huge changes in store in Baltimore.
3) Can the NL West keep this up?
We’ll leave the Rockies out of this, because, jeez, haven’t they suffered enough? But if you were wondering whether anyone in this division would step up to challenge the Dodgers, we have a definite answer. The National League West has muscled up.
The Diamondbacks, thought by most to be the second-best team in this division heading into the season, are above .500 and hitting the ball like crazy. Their rotation, thought to be a team strength, has held them back in fourth place so far. The Padres, who were uncharacteristically quiet this offseason, are riding an MVP-level season from Fernando Tatis Jr. And, most shockingly, the Giants, thanks to some clutch hitting and a tendency to win close games, have spent most of this first month in first or second place in their initial season under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are, somehow, already running out of starting pitchers again. Most people didn’t think this would even be a two-team race, let alone a four-team one. Can this possibly continue for a whole other month? Or will the Dodgers straighten out and start to pull away?
4) Will Acuña turbo-charge the Braves’ resurgence?
The Braves got off to an even rougher start than the Orioles, losing each of their first seven games and 13 of their first 18. Fortunately, though, they have since crawled their way back toward .500. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley have helped pick up the slack, but you know what would really help get this going? The return of Ronald Acuña Jr., who is expected back from last season’s torn left ACL injury in the first half of this month. (Spencer Strider, who strained his right hamstring following his season debut, is also due back by the end of May.)
In other words, the cavalry could be coming for a team that has already started to play better baseball. Put it this way: The Mets, even with their substantial lead on the Braves, will never not get nervous when they see this team in their rearview mirror.
5) Who emerges in the crowded AL West?
We’ll have to see if the Orioles can crawl out of the basement in the American League East, but as of now, the tightest division in baseball from top to bottom is the AL West. The Angels have fallen into last place after a hot start, but they’re still within shouting distance, 5 1/2 games out of first place.
Everyone else has been bobbing around .500. The Mariners have gotten hot lately to take the division lead, but we’ve seen that before. Will it be the Rangers, who seem to have the most talent but have hit a rough patch after a strong start? The Astros, not ready to let go of their crown? The A’s, who have struggled in their new digs in West Sacramento but have climbed back over .500? Heck, maybe even the Angels have another kick in them.
There’s no division as muddled as this one. Perhaps May will give us some clarity.
6. Will the trade market open early again?
Remember when the Marlins traded Luis Arraez to the Padres last year? It wasn’t at the Deadline; it was on May 4. As we approach Memorial Day, it can become clearer to some teams that 2025 might not be their year. They might be more aggressive in their rebuilding, understandably believing some of their stars will have more value to a contending team if they get two more months of them, rather than waiting until the end of July.
The Marlins (despite a better-than-expected start) could once again be the first team to make a move, if Sandy Alcantara can get going. But May also will be a pivotal month for teams such as the Twins, Angels, Pirates and even the Cardinals to decide whether they’re going to contend in 2025 or turn the page toward '26 and beyond.
7) Will we see Ohtani pitch?
It’s one of the biggest questions of the year: When does Shohei Ohtani get back on the bump? He threw his first mound session since returning from paternity leave over the weekend, and while the Dodgers are understandably taking their sweet time getting him ready, May was the original target date for him to make a start. That seems a little unlikely, even with the Dodgers’ pitching shortages, but this is the month we’ll see him ramp up considerably, either way.
All eyes are always on Ohtani. May will be no different.