This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TAMPA -- After splitting a six-game homestand against the last-place Orioles and White Sox to start the season’s unofficial second half, the Rays boarded a flight on Thursday to begin a seven-game trip to Cincinnati and New York.
When they return next Thursday night, likely landing a few hours after the Trade Deadline, their roster could look different.
How different? That’s the question.
President of baseball operations Erik Neander made it clear the 13-game stretch between the All-Star break and the Trade Deadline would be critical for the Rays. As he said last week, the Rays hoped to find themselves “in a position where we’re looking to at least improve somewhere on the roster, if not significantly so.”
But if they continue to struggle like they did before the break, Neander acknowledged, “That comes with all sorts of additional questions that I’d much rather not think about.”
And if the Rays remain where they are now, 8 games behind the American League East-leading Blue Jays and 1 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot? There may not be much incentive to rock the boat in either direction.
Unlike last year, the Rays would be in position to realistically reach the postseason, which is always their goal, and they have shown they have a roster capable of getting on a run. But their aggressiveness as a buyer is relative to their proximity to a first-round bye, and that may not be as realistic after a 6-12 start to July left them fourth in the division.
To illustrate those points: Their odds of reaching the postseason as of Thursday were 29.3%, according to FanGraphs, but they were given just a 3.2% chance to win the AL East.
Players will acknowledge the importance of winning now to keep the group together or perhaps convince the front office to make further additions. They already received a vote of confidence, of sorts, with the addition of reliever Bryan Baker. But they can’t afford to look too hard at the bigger picture.
“We're trying to go out there and win every game, no matter what. Obviously everybody’s seeing it. We all hear the rumors. We understand we play for the Rays,” starter Zack Littell said. “I think everybody here believes this group is good enough to beat just about anybody in the league. So when we're playing the baseball that we're capable of playing, I don't think it's even a conversation.”
The Rays’ place in the standings is one reason they could have a relatively quiet Deadline. Their roster is another.
It’s hard to see Neander and Co. finding upgrades at first base (Jonathan Aranda), second base (Brandon Lowe, assuming he comes off the injured list soon), shortstop (Ha-Seong Kim), third base (Junior Caminero) or designated hitter (Yandy Díaz). Danny Jansen has been solid behind the plate, and teams with high-end catchers typically cling to them.
Center fielder Chandler Simpson has been a game-changer. They’re committed to Josh Lowe in right field. Left fielder Jake Mangum has been key to their success. Is there room for another outfield bat? Sure, especially a right-handed hitter in a bigger role than Christopher Morel is currently playing. But could they fill that need over the final two months with some combination of what they have plus the rehabbing Jonny DeLuca and Richie Palacios? Possibly.
There is clearly still room for improvement in the bullpen. The Rays were on the lookout for relief help before landing Baker from the Orioles, and that pursuit could continue, although it’s hard to imagine bigger upgrades than righty Edwin Uceta getting right and lefty Mason Montgomery figuring it out in Triple-A.
They’re pretty well set in their rotation with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, Littell, Joe Boyle, Taj Bradley and potentially Shane McClanahan. Littell is a logical trade candidate, as a pending free agent, but the Rays need his innings with Rasmussen limited to 150 and others trending toward totals they’ve never reached.
It would simply be unlike the Rays to stand pat at the Deadline. Even when they’re not making major moves, they’ve pulled off under-the-radar deals that help in the long term, like getting Garrett Cleavinger in 2022 or Manuel Rodríguez in ‘23.
What will the next week bring? The answer might begin on the field in Cincinnati.
“Not saying that you can't improve, but I would make the argument [that] this group right here is good enough to beat anybody,” Littell said. “So our goal is to go out there and win games, no matter what, and try to tune out the rest of the noise.”