We're now officially halfway through the 2025 campaign, with every club having played at least 81 games in the regular season. So it's an excellent time to check in on what the postseason picture would look like if the season ended today.
Which clubs are in? Which clubs are out? Which clubs are just outside the playoff field?
There's a long way to go, and much can change between now and when the regular season ends. But here's a look at how it would all shake out if the postseason began today.
(Here's a refresher on playoff tiebreakers, which were used to determine this postseason outlook.)
American League
Byes: Tigers (1), Astros (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Mariners (6) at Yankees (3)
Blue Jays (5) at Rays (4)
Just missed: Rangers, Guardians and Angels (all 1 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot)
The Tigers remain atop the American League with the best record in the junior circuit, tied with the Dodgers for the best in the Majors at 52-32. Detroit has more than proven that the final two months of last season, in which it surged to a long-awaited playoff berth despite being eight games under .500 as late as Aug. 10, were no fluke.
With ace and reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal leading the way in the starting rotation and the offense taking a big stride forward -- all but one of their everyday players has produced an OPS+ above the league average of 100 so far in 2025 -- the Tigers appear to be a formidable force as we near the All-Star break.
The Astros, meanwhile, are doing Astros things. In other words, they’re in first place. Despite losing stars Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman this past offseason, departures that prompted the notion that its dynastic reign in the AL West was coming to an end, Houston remains the team to beat in that division, something that has been the case for the better part of a decade.
The Yankees are still perched atop the standings in the AL East, but from the last time we checked in on the postseason picture, the landscape in that division has changed dramatically. With the Rays and Jays surging -- Tampa Bay suddenly finds itself just a half game out of first while Toronto overcame a lackluster start by winning 12 of 14 from late May through early June -- the Yanks’ once comfortable lead is all but gone.
Back out west, the Mariners are hovering around .500 (42-40) and have fallen to seven games out of first thanks to the Astros’ recent run of success.
Division Series matchups
Mariners or Yankees at Tigers
Blue Jays or Rays at Astros
The Tigers are aiming for much more than a playoff appearance this year after reaching the postseason for the first time in a decade last fall. After losing to the Guardians in the Division Series, Detroit is hungry for a deep postseason run -- one the club hopes will culminate in its first World Series title in more than four decades.
The Astros have won two World Series championships in the past eight years, but just when you might have thought Houston’s great run was over, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Co. are looking to lead Houston to an incredible eighth AL Championship Series in the past nine years. Are the Astros inevitable?
The Yankees plan on repeating as AL champs, but given the current playoff picture, the road might be more difficult than it was in 2024, when they had the luxury of a bye in the Wild Card round.
Seattle, Tampa Bay and Toronto are hoping to be playing deep into October after each club missed the playoffs altogether last year -- and in the Mariners’ case, the past two years after snapping a 21-year postseason drought in 2022.
National League
Byes: Dodgers (1), Cubs (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Padres (6) at Phillies (3)
Brewers (5) at Mets (4)
Just missed: Cardinals (one win percentage point behind Padres) and Giants (1/2 game out)
The Dodgers are only getting stronger, and a microcosm of that notion came on Saturday, when two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani threw the fastest pitch of his career (101.7 mph) in his third start on the mound since 2023. Los Angeles has reeled off wins in 11 of its last 14 games to turn a tight NL West race into one that the Dodgers are leading by six games.
In the NL Central, the Cubs have come down to earth a little after bolting out of the gate. But they’re still showing that the surprising offensive production of Pete Crow-Armstrong and the rest of Chicago’s lineup is the real deal.
The Brewers are making a run to put the heat on the Cubs -- they seem to have righted the ship after early-season injuries decimated the roster; the Crew has cut Chicago’s division lead to just two games thanks to eight wins in its last nine games. Flamethrowing rookie Jacob Misiorowski has been tremendous over the first three starts of his career, adding to the building excitement in Milwaukee.
The Phillies surged past the Mets as the latter began to struggle in mid-June. Philadelphia is trying to build some sustained momentum after a hot stretch in the middle of the month but a rocky ride since.
The NL Wild Card standings are tight, with three teams within 2 1/2 games of a playoff position. Following a hot finish to May and a hot start to June, the Mets have fallen on hard times and out of first place in the NL East, losing 12 of their past 15. The aforementioned Brewers are just a half game behind New York, and the Padres -- who are right at .500 since the start of May -- are hoping to get hot.
Division Series matchups
Padres or Phillies at Dodgers
Brewers or Mets at Cubs
If the season ended today, the Dodgers could conceivably find themselves in a Division Series showdown against the Padres in what has over the past several years become one of the best rivalries in the game.
If that does, indeed, happen, it will be a rematch of last year’s NLDS between the two SoCal clubs, as well as the third NLDS between them in the past four years.
The Phillies, of course, don’t want to see that at their expense. After nearly winning it all in 2022, then coming within a game of returning to the Fall Classic in ’23, and then losing in the NLDS last fall, Philadelphia is looking to dethrone the defending champion Dodgers this time around.
An NL Central NLDS? It could happen given the way things have shaped up so far. It would mark the first time former Brewers manager Craig Counsell would face Milwaukee in the postseason since he took the helm for the Cubs last year. It would also mean the Cubs end a five-year playoff drought.
On the other hand, it could be the Big Apple vs. the Windy City if the Mets advance to the Division Series in this scenario -- after inking superstar slugger Juan Soto to the biggest contract in sports history, a deep playoff run for the Mets would be apropos.
Who’s out from last year?
Braves, Guardians, Orioles, Royals
The Braves have had a largely disappointing first half of the 2025 season. With the tremendous talent up and down the roster, injuries and underperformance have Atlanta currently seven games out of a Wild Card spot, at 38-44.
In much the same way, the Orioles have taken a step back after two consecutive playoff appearances with a young and exciting core featuring Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Grayson Rodriguez. Injuries have hurt in Baltimore, as well, with Rutschman, Rodriguez and others currently on the IL.
The Guardians and Royals, who along with the Tigers formed an AL Central trio in the postseason last fall, are each under .500 midway through the season.
Despite Shane Bieber still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and the offense largely struggling outside of José Ramírez and Steven Kwan, Cleveland is still within striking distance of a playoff position.
Kansas City, meanwhile, continues to pitch well, but offensively, Bobby Witt Jr. isn’t having the MVP-caliber season he had last year and his supporting cast has mostly underperformed the plate.
Who’s new this year?
Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, Rays
The Jays and Mariners generated excitement over the past few years with young talent that seemed poised to break through for a deep postseason run. But after breaking a long playoff drought in 2022, Seattle hasn’t been back since, while the Jays haven’t been able to get past the Wild Card round, being swept in the Wild Card Series each of the last three times Toronto made the playoffs.
The Rays always seem to be in the hunt, though they missed the postseason for the first time in five years in 2024. Early on this year, it seemed as though they might be headed for a second straight disappointing campaign, but then Tampa Bay got red-hot, winning 11 of 15 games to close the gap with the first-place Yankees.
And the Cubs have ridden a powerful offense to the top of the standings in the NL Central. Between Crow-Armstrong, Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and others, Chicago’s lineup looks as formidable as any in the game.