We’re two months into the 2025 season, which means roughly a third of the regular season is completed.
That gives us a solid enough sample size to take note of which teams are performing well, those that aren’t and try to gauge what the playoff picture will look like. Plenty can happen between now and October, but some teams have started well enough to put themselves in a prime position for the playoffs.
With this in mind, here’s what the playoff matchups would look like if the season ended today.
(Here's a refresher on playoff tiebreakers, which were used to determine this postseason outlook.)
American League
Byes: Tigers (1) and Yankees (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Mariners (6) at Astros (3)
Guardians (5) at Twins (4)
Just missed: Royals (one game out of Wild Card spot), Rays (1 1/2 games), Blue Jays (1 1/2 games)
The Yankees (6 1/2-game lead in the AL East) and Tigers (six-game lead in the AL Central) have the largest divisional leads of any team, which is largely due to both teams playing exceptionally well and the AL East not playing up to expectations.
The Tigers are clicking on all cylinders, with a top-five offense (295 runs scored) and pitching staff (3.26 ERA). Detroit’s scorching-hot start put any doubts about its 2024 season legitimacy to bed. Even when things got dicey last week when the Tigers lost the first three games of a four-game series to the Guardians, Tarik Skubal’s dominating performance on Sunday got the Tigers right back on track.
In the case of the Yanks, their offense has shown no signs of slowing down and has once again been led by a historic effort from Aaron Judge. Even with the devastating pitching injuries suffered in Spring Training, the Yankees have had huge performances from Max Fried and Carlos Rodón in the rotation. Helping the Yankees’ cause has been an immensely disappointing season from the Orioles and a Red Sox team playing below expectations.
With the Astros winning and the Mariners losing on Friday, Houston has sole possession of first place in the AL West for the first time this season. Given the Rangers' struggles this season and the Angels and A's well below .500, this should be a two-team battle for the AL West.
It’s looking like another potential season where we see two or three AL Central teams making the playoffs, as the Twins, Guardians and Royals are all firmly in the mix right now. The division is still up for grabs, too, although the Tigers have given themselves a sizable lead.
Division Series matchups
Guardians (5) or Twins (4) at Tigers (1)
Mariners (6) or Astros (3) at Yankees (2)
The Yankees are the best bet to win their division, given how large their lead is. The FanGraphs playoff odds agree, giving the Yankees a 91.7 percent chance to win the AL East. It’s a little less secure for the Tigers in the AL Central (71.5 percent), but they also have a 94.9 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Based on the current playoff configuration, we could see AL Central foes face off in the playoffs for the second straight year, while the Yankees would be slated to face one of the two AL West squads.
National League
Byes: Phillies (1) and Cubs (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Giants (6) at Dodgers (3)
Padres (5) at Mets (4)
Just missed: Cardinals (zero games back -- Giants hold tiebreaker advantage)
If the playoff picture is clearer in the American League, there’s a whole lot of instability in the National League. There are plenty of good teams -- it’s just a matter of who ends up winning the division and who finds themselves on the outside looking in to a hypercompetitive NL playoff field.
There’s a strong argument that any of the top four teams -- the Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Mets -- could end this season as the NL’s top seed. The problem each of those clubs faces is competition from divisional foes.
In the NL East, the Phillies only have a one-game lead over the Mets. For the Dodgers, it’s a two-game lead over the Padres and a three-game lead over the Giants. Even the Cubs are only three games up on a Cardinals team that has surged since a sluggish start.
Those top four teams all look like legitimate World Series contenders, which makes this battle for playoff seeds an exciting storyline to monitor. Add in the surprise seasons from the Giants and Cardinals and it’s making for a compelling season for the senior circuit.
Division Series matchups
Padres (5) or Mets (4) at Phillies (1)
Cardinals (6) or Dodgers (3) at Cubs (2)
There are endless possibilities for entertaining NL playoff matchups. A repeat of Phillies vs. the Mets? Ditto for the Dodgers and Padres? How about other intradivision rivalries like Dodgers-Giants and Cubs-Cardinals? With no disrespect to the American League, the NL is shaping up to have a much more interesting playoff field.
Who’s out from last year?
Braves, Brewers, Royals, Orioles
Perhaps the most shocking development of the season has been the Orioles having a 20-36 record through two months, the third-worst record in the Majors. A combination of underperformance and injuries has crushed an Orioles team that was widely expected to be a legitimate playoff contender.
It hasn't been quite as drastic for the Braves, but at 26-30, they have the same record as the Nationals and are 5 1/2 games back of a playoff spot. Atlanta's hole is not quite as deep as the Orioles, but with the rampant competition in the National League, it's going to take a quick turnaround for the Braves to get back in the playoff picture.
Who’s new this year?
Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Twins
It's been a stellar season for the Cubs, whose 35-22 record is only behind the Tigers, Yankees and Phillies. There's ample reason to believe that this club is legitimately good and Chicago has a real shot at grabbing the top spot in the National League.
It's been quite the season, too, for a Giants team that is 32-25 and not only in possession of a Wild Card spot right now, but also within striking distance of the Dodgers in the NL West.