On pace stats don't always offer insight. For example, four players started the 2025 season on pace to hit 324 home runs by virtue of hitting two on Opening Day, and after a week of play, three different NL West teams were on pace to win at least 140 games.
Point being, if you really want an idea of where a player's season is going, stretching a small sample size over a 162-game season isn't always wise, especially since the numbers most guys can actually sustain are found between their highest highs and lowest lows. No one's really as good as they look at their best, right?
Well … usually. But we've been reminded several times in recent years that it's also possible we really are watching historic seasons in progress. In light of that possibility, we asked seven MLB.com writers and researchers to choose one especially interesting on-pace stat they're keeping an eye on.
All stats below are through Friday.
Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
On pace for: 466 total bases
Judge entered Saturday leading either the AL or all of MLB in a whopping 14 offensive categories. While staying close to a .400 batting average is understandably getting most of the buzz, perhaps we should be equally amazed at another column: total bases -- because that's where the Yankees slugger could really make history in 2025.
Judge is on pace for 466 total bases, which would break the all-time single-season record of 457 set by Babe Ruth in 1921. But even if Judge ultimately falls short of Ruth's record, he could still finish with a historic total. Nobody has even had 420 or more total bases since Sammy Sosa had 425 in 2001. Nobody had reached 400 at all since 2001 until Shohei Ohtani got to 411 total bases last season. The 392 Judge had in 2024 were his career high.
The key to a high number of total bases is extra-base hits, and Judge is stocking that cupboard nicely so far. He's on pace for 55 homers, 42 doubles and six triples. But he's getting plenty of singles, too, which is why he's on pace for a career-high 246 hits (his previous high is 180). Given Judge's torrid start, even a mild cooldown could allow him to finish well north of 400 total bases. But as of now, he could very well threaten or conquer an unsung record held by the most storied Yankee of all time.
-- Jason Foster
MacKenzie Gore, SP, Nationals
On pace for: 295 strikeouts
Through 11 starts, Gore is on pace to flirt with one of the game’s increasingly rare feats: a 300-strikeout season. Only 19 pitchers in the modern era (since 1900) have reached the 300-strikeout plateau in a single season, with Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander the last to do so as Astros teammates in 2019. A left-handed pitcher hasn’t struck out 300 batters in a season since Chris Sale in 2017.
Gore’s current clip puts him in the conversation. Always a strikeout artist, he’s taken things to another level this year: His 36.3% strikeout rate is in the 97th percentile of MLB, and it’s a 10-point increase from his career average. Gore has punched out a whopping 93 batters in 62 1/3 innings, good for a 13.42 K/9 ratio. That would be the highest mark for a qualified starting pitcher since Spencer Strider’s 13.55 K/9 ratio in 2023. Coincidentally, Strider is the most recent pitcher to make a legitimate bid for a 300-strikeout season, finishing with 281 K’s in ‘23.
-- Jared Greenspan
Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners
On pace for: 55 HR and 9.7 fWAR
Raleigh is rather quietly on pace for one of the best seasons by a catcher … ever? Appearing in all 50 Mariners games, Raleigh has crushed 17 home runs, putting him on a 162-game pace for 55 home runs, which would make him the first primary catcher with a 50-home run season.
With an excellent .373 on-base percentage and his usual elite defense, Raleigh has accumulated 3.0 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement. That puts Raleigh on pace for 9.7 WAR, which would put him just shy of Buster Posey’s highwater mark of 9.8 WAR (2012), the highest total by a catcher in a single season.
It might be easy to dismiss Raleigh’s current trajectory, but just remember that Raleigh is one of the most durable catchers in the sport -- he played in at least 145 games in 2023 and ‘24 -- and his excellent offensive season is backed by underlying numbers (.564 expected SLG, .394 expected wOBA).
-- Brent Maguire
Shohei Ohtani, DH, Dodgers
On pace for: 55 HR and 35 SB
He may not be on pace for 50-50 again, but Ohtani is still putting up incredible numbers. Entering Friday, he was on pace for 55 homers and 35 stolen bases. That would be his fourth season with at least 40 homers and 20 stolen bases, tying Alex Rodriguez for the most such seasons in MLB history.
But that’s just the low threshold. There’s only been one 50-30 season in MLB history and it was Ohtani’s last year. This would make two. And if he can raise that stolen base pace slightly — which we know he is capable of doing — he could be the first player with multiple 40-40 seasons.
-- Sarah Langs
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs
On pace for: 10.1 fWAR
With his dazzling defense in center field and his base-stealing potential, we knew the speedy Crow-Armstrong could be quite valuable if he could just hit a little in 2025. Well, he's hit a lot.
Crow-Armstrong is on pace to flirt with a 40-40 season and has produced a 139 wRC+, up from 87 a year ago (100 is league average). He also has been one of the most valuable defensive players in the sport. Accordingly, the 23-year-old ranks second in the Majors behind Judge with 3.2 fWAR through 51 games. At his current pace, he would cross the 10 fWAR threshold over a full season.
In the 150-year history of the Cubs, only six players have even had an 8 fWAR season: Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby (1929), Ernie Banks (two seasons), Ron Santo (three seasons), Hack Wilson (1930) and Ryne Sandberg (1984), as well as Sosa (2001). Only Hornsby went over 10 WAR in any of those seasons.
-- Thomas Harrigan
Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers
On pace for: 246 K's / 21 BB (11.71 K/BB)
Big league pitchers mostly fall into one of two categories -- "nasty" (fewer strikes, more strikeouts, more walks) or "efficient" (more strikes, fewer strikeouts, fewer walks) -- which is part of the reason why Skubal, who had 228 strikeouts against just 35 walks in 2024, is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. But last year's was a ratio of 6.51 strikeouts for every walk, so he's much closer to doubling that in 2025 than he is to repeating it.
It really can't be overstated how outrageous that would be. Just two pitchers have ever had qualifying seasons with a K/BB rate of 11 or higher -- Bret Saberhagen (11.0 in 1994) and all-time record-holder Phil Hughes (11.63 in 2014) -- and neither of them were averaging a strikeout per inning. Skubal's current pace would have him with 246 K's in 185 innings, just shy of 12 K/9. Whether or not this scales over a full season, we'll find out, but it is worth pointing out that there are nine active pitchers who've had 12+ K/9 years in non-shortened seasons, the most recent being Strider (13.5 K/9) in 2023.
-- Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru
Luis Arraez, 1B, Padres
On pace for: 14 strikeouts all season
Arraez is the greatest throwback hitter in the game today. He simply does not strike out, in an era when everyone strikes out. He's the modern day Tony Gwynn, and he even plays for Tony Gwynn's team.
Arraez has struck out a grand total of four times this season in 189 plate appearances. He's already had two streaks this season of over 50 plate appearances without a strikeout -- one to start the year, and one that just ended on Thursday.
That puts Arraez on pace to finish the 2025 season with 685 plate appearances … and only 14 strikeouts. No qualified hitter since Gwynn has even finished a full season with 20 or fewer K's. And even Mr. Padre, who routinely stayed under 20 strikeouts during his prime, only had one 15-K season, in 1995. That Arraez can even be mentioned in the same contact-hitting conversation as Gwynn is crazy.
-- David Adler