Apparently, being the best pitcher in baseball wasn’t enough for reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
His ERA may not reflect it yet -- it’s up by nearly half a run -- but the Tigers ace looks even more dominant than he did a year ago. And that’s saying something, considering he posted a 2.39 ERA with 228 strikeouts and 35 walks over 192 innings in 2024.
Skubal’s whiff, chase, strikeout and walk rates have all improved compared to last year, and his K/BB ratio has him on track to flirt with history.
Going into Sunday’s scheduled start against the Guardians (11:35 a.m. ET on Roku), the left-hander has recorded 79 strikeouts with just seven walks over 59 2/3 innings, good for an 11.29 K/BB ratio. In his past eight starts? Skubal has issued three free passes with 69 strikeouts. That's 23 K's per every one walk, for those keeping track.
Only four qualifying pitchers in MLB history have finished a season with a K/BB ratio of 10.0 or better. For all of them, that efficiency stemmed far more from limiting walks than piling up strikeouts -- the highest K/9 among the group belonged to Phil Hughes at just 8.0 in 2014, the year he set the all-time record with an 11.63 K/BB ratio.
Skubal is getting there a bit differently. He's not only minimizing free passes but overwhelming hitters, too, with an 11.9 K/9 that puts him in a completely different tier.
Highest single-season K/BB ratio in MLB history
Pitcher must have qualified for the ERA title in that season
Phil Hughes, 2014 -- 11.63
Tarik Skubal, 2025 -- 11.29
Bret Saberhagen, 1994 -- 11.0
Cliff Lee, 2010 -- 10.28
Jim Whitney, 1884 -- 10.0
Let’s take a look at why the encore might end up being even better than the original for Skubal as he pursues his second straight Cy Young Award.
All stats below are through Friday.
His stuff (especially his four-seamer) has leveled up
Skubal already featured an impressive arsenal, but in 2025, he is somehow even nastier.
In fact, Stuff+ -- a metric that rates a pitcher’s repertoire based on characteristics such as release point, velocity, movement and spin rate, with 100 considered average -- gives Skubal the highest rating (119) among qualified pitchers, with a significant gap between first and second place. (Skubal had a 112 Stuff+ in 2024.)
Skubal’s four-seam fastball gains are especially notable. He's not only throwing the pitch faster than he did in 2024, he's also inducing more "rise" due to how he spins the baseball. That means the pitch is dropping less on its way to the plate, making it appear like it's rising to a hitter.
More rise can make a major difference in missing bats, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen from Skubal -- his whiff rate on four-seamers has jumped from 27.7% to 32.9% since last year.
Highest whiff rate on 4-seamers, 2025
Min. 150 swings on 4-seamers
1. Tarik Skubal: 32.9%
2. Hunter Brown: 32.3%
3. Zack Wheeler: 31.5%
4. Bryan Woo: 31.4%
5. Garrett Crochet: 30.8%
With a heater like that, you’d think Skubal would lean on it as much as possible, but that hasn’t been the case in 2025. It’s not even his most-used pitch. Instead, he’s turned more often to his signature putaway offering: the changeup.
Granted, if you've glanced at the numbers or have seen the pitch in action, it’s easy to understand why. While all five of Skubal’s pitches have a Stuff+ rating of 112 or higher this season, his changeup once again leads the way at 126.
Despite its name, Skubal doesn't need to use the pitch as a change of pace. He’s comfortable throwing it in virtually any count and situation, to lefties and to righties.
The added exposure hasn’t dulled its edge, either. Rather, his whiff and strikeout rates on changeups have actually gone up, which is a testament to just how filthy it is -- and how well it pairs with his high-octane fastball.
Skubal has notched a 47.9% whiff rate and a 45.5% strikeout rate on changeups in 2025, putting it among the best individual pitch types in both categories.
Highest whiff rate on single pitch type, 2025
Min. 150 swings against that pitch
1. Tarik Skubal’s changeup: 47.9%
2. Max Meyer’s slider: 44.4%
3. Chris Sale’s slider: 42.2
4. Landen Roupp’s curveball: 41.8%
5. Dylan Cease’s slider: 41.4%
Highest strikeout rate on single pitch type, 2025
Min. 75 plate appearances ending on that pitch
1. Carlos Rodón’s slider: 47.5%
2. Tarik Skubal’s changeup: 45.5%
3. Max Meyer’s slider: 45.0%
4. Chris Sale's slider: 44.3%
5. Hunter Brown’s four-seamer: 44.3%
He's dominating the edges in key spots
The quality of Skubal’s stuff has only been part of the equation this season. He has also been sharper than ever with his pitch location, particularly at the most pivotal points of his matchups.
In both two-strike and three-ball counts, Skubal has been throwing a much higher rate of his pitches to the edges of the plate than he did last year. That kind of precision forces hitters to make tough swing decisions with two strikes, lest they get punched out. It also helps a pitcher minimize walks without needing to serve up hittable pitches in three-ball counts.
Take a glimpse at Skubal's strikeout chart this season and it's immediately clear how many of them have come around the edges of the plate or just beyond that zone, which in technical terms covers the area within one baseball's width (both inside and outside) of the strike-zone borders.
It’s a big reason why Skubal is tied for the highest run value (+18) on edge pitches, even though his overall edge rate is merely average. (He tied for 15th in run value on edge pitches a year ago.)
Highest pitching run value on edge pitches, 2025
1-T. Tarik Skubal: +18
1-T. Max Fried: +18
3. Freddy Peralta: +16
4. Zack Wheeler: +15
5-T. Paul Skenes: +14
5-T. Corbin Burnes: +14
He's become more efficient
Of course, Skubal hardly needs to nibble. Even when he’s over the plate, he is incredibly difficult to hit. And he has been over the plate a lot this season, making quick work of hitters as a result.
The fact that he can throw the ball in the zone as much as he has and still be this dominant speaks to the impressive combination of stuff and command that he possesses.
It's a combo that has Skubal in position to challenge for a rare piece of K/BB history, not to mention potentially join the select group of pitchers who have won back-to-back Cy Youngs.