All spring, we’ve been talking about how the Nationals are looking at a pretty wide array of players to potentially take with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s Draft. From the get-go, the leader of that group has been Ethan Holliday, son of Matt, brother of Jackson. And while it’s been in no way a slam dunk, he’s been No. 1 in the three mock drafts we’ve published so far.
Until today.
While there’s still a strong chance Holliday goes in the top spot, there are other possibilities. We discussed that on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, when we were asked to revisit the percentage chance of different players going in the top spot. This is where Jim Callis and I landed:
Ethan Holliday: 40 pct (Callis); 50 pct (Mayo)
Seth Hernandez: 30 pct (Callis); 20 pct (Mayo)
Kade Anderson: 20 pct (Callis); 15 pct (Mayo)
Aiva Arquette: 4 pct (Callis); 5 pct (Mayo)
Jamie Arnold: 3 pct (Callis); 5 pct (Mayo)
The field: 3 pct (Callis); 5 pct (Mayo)
As I was working through this week’s mock after the pod, I had several conversations with scouting directors and it started to make a bit more sense to me that if the Nats don’t go with Holliday, it feels more likely that they’d go with a college arm who could impact the big league team relatively quickly. One who has an up arrow next to his name. One who is currently ranked on our Draft Top 250 list as the best college arm in the class. One who scouts think has the best combination of stuff, delivery and surety of being a starter. And that’s why I decided to move Kade Anderson into the No. 1 spot.
Let’s see how the rest of the first round could shake out with that shakeup at the top.
1. Nationals: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 3)
Anderson heads into Super Regional play second behind Tennessee’s Liam Doyle in strikeouts among all Division I pitchers and is coming off a Regional start in which he tossed seven shutout innings, striking out 11 while allowing just four hits and two walks. The lefty is athletic, throws strikes and has a legit four-pitch mix. With all of his stuff ticking up in the Regional, it looks like he still has plenty in the tank, checking off the durability box. Oh, he’ll also have just turned 21 before the Draft as a sophomore-eligible prospect.
2. Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 9)
While the Angels are still doing due diligence on a host of players across all the demographics, most feel a college arm is still the right fit here. With Anderson off the board, that leaves them with Jamie Arnold and Doyle as the main candidates. He might cost less, and the Golden Spikes Award finalist has had arguably the most dominant season of any starter in college, currently leading the nation in strikeouts and K/9.
3. Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)
In this scenario, it could come down to a choice between the college arm in Arnold and the top college bat in Arquette, who heads into Super Regional play – where he’ll face Arnold and Florida State – with a 1.137 OPS.
4. Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)
This has been the perceived floor for Holliday and it’s seemed that if the Nats don’t take him, this is where he likely lands. Arnold could be the college arm choice here.
5. Cardinals: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
There’s interest in the high school shortstops coming up next here, but I think they’re hoping one of the three lefties lands here. If Arnold goes to the Mariners, for example, the Cards could be looking at Billy Carlson or Eli Willits, or could turn their sights to Oklahoma right-hander Kyson Witherspoon if they want a college arm.
6. Pirates: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS (No. 5)
If top high school hurler Seth Hernandez doesn’t make history and become the first prep right-hander to go No. 1 overall, this could be a landing spot. But after taking Konnor Griffin last year, it’s not hard to see the Pirates taking who they think is the best of the high school toolsy shortstops, and that could be Willits or Carlson.
7. Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)
If Carlson goes here, then Willits could very well be the pick, with the other high school shortstops (JoJo Parker, Steele Hall among them) in view. If they want a college bat, Wake Forest’s Marek Houston could be an option.
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8. Blue Jays: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 8)
Witherspoon struggled in his Regional start, allowing nine runs (three earned) on 10 hits over four innings against North Carolina. It’s not the best last impression, but he’s still the best college arm available in the top 10.
9. Reds: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 2)
Not only is he a high school right-hander, which will make the risk-averse look elsewhere, he’ll be 19 at Draft time, which some team models won’t like. But the Reds have had some success with SoCal prep righties who hit triple digits, so …
10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 10)
The White Sox could pick from the strength of the Draft here and take the best high school shortstop available. If they wanted to go the college route, they could look at Houston, Texas A&M’s Jace LaViolette or Tennessee’s Gavin Kilen.
11. Athletics: Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee (No. 17)
One of the best contact hitters in the Draft, Kilen could provide a very nice complement to the college contact bat currently playing shortstop in the big leagues for the A's, Jacob Wilson.
12. Rangers: Kayson Cunningham, SS/2B, Johnson (Texas) HS (No. 11)
This continues to look like another prep infielder landing spot and while Hall or Daniel Pierce could land here, I'm changing it up and putting Cunningham and his plus hit tool here.
13. Giants: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M (No. 15)
LaViolette has become one of the tougher college bats to place. He has size, power, athleticism and a lot of swing-and-miss.
14. Rays: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS (No. 13)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but this is potentially another prep shortstop landing spot. Hall reclassified, so his age (17) looks good in team models.
15. Red Sox: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest (No. 12)
I’ve had a few scouting directors tell me they think Houston could land in the top 10 when all is said and done, but I’m not quite ready to put him there just yet. If they want to look at other college options, the next three players coming off the board could fit.
16. Twins: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona (No. 19)
Summerhill can do a lot of things well and seems to have an up arrow next to his name currently. He could go higher, especially if a team thinks he can play center field.
17. Cubs: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 14)
This keeps being a landing spot for Bremner, who did not get the chance to show what he can do in postseason play. I still think he could float higher after finishing the year with double-digit strikeouts in six of his last seven starts.
18. Diamondbacks: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 21)
Irish is coming off a Regional in which he went 7-for-14 with two homers, two doubles and five RBIs over three games and could go higher than this.
19. Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS (No. 27)
The Orioles like hitters -- both high school and college -- with power, and Neyens fits the bill as maybe a left-handed-hitting version of Coby Mayo. They could switch gears and also look at a prep shortstop like Daniel Pierce.
20. Brewers: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek (Ga.) HS (No. 18)
The Brewers often tend to like college bats here, so that could be players like Arkansas shortstop Wehiwa Aloy, North Carolina catcher Luke Stevenson or Tennessee’s Andrew Fischer. But Pierce’s talent might be too good to pass up, and they did go the prep bat route in the first round last year.
21. Astros: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak (Calif.) HS (No. 26)
Fien didn’t have a great spring, but many considered him to be the best pure high school hitter on the summer showcase circuit. Some scouts think he goes higher than this, and if he does, the Astros could look at a college bat like Aloy.
22. Braves: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina (No. 20)
The Braves have loaded up on arms up top lately, so they could look to Kruz Schoolcraft on the high school side, maybe JB Middleton, Riley Quick or hot names Zach Root and Gage Wood on the college end. The last time they took a college catcher in the first, it worked out OK for them (Shea Langeliers).
23. Royals: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas (No. 22)
This is a spot most think a high schooler will land and there are still several bats, plus Schoolcraft on the mound to consider. But it feels like Aloy should go higher than this and the Royals could take a long look at his up-the-middle talent if he’s still on the board.
24. Tigers: Slater de Brun, OF, Summit (Ore.) HS (No. 25)
Yes, he’s undersized, but the guy can rake and the Tigers do enjoy high school left-handed hitters (Bryce Rainer, Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle).
25. Padres: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset (Ore.) HS (No. 16)
It’s been nine straight Drafts that the Padres have taken a high schooler with their top pick and four of those have been left-handed pitchers. If Schoolcraft is there, picking them to go 10 and 5 seems like a layup.
26. Phillies: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest (No. 28)
There are several college bats the Phillies could consider here and Conrad could be a nice little sleeper pick as someone who likely would have hit himself higher if he hadn’t hurt his shoulder in March and missed most of the season.
27. Guardians: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee (No. 29)
Fischer went 6-for-16 with two homers and nine RBIs in Regional play and could follow in the footsteps of left-handed-hitting college bats Cleveland has taken in recent years (Travis Bazzana, Chase DeLauter).
I’m following in Jim Callis’ footsteps and including projections for the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers, who all had their top picks dropped 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive-balance tax.