This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
HOUSTON -- With George Kirby back from the injured list, Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert nearing returns and the extra rest that the Mariners intend to grant that trio for the foreseeable future, might the Mariners consider a six-man rotation in the near future?
The short answer: Yes -- but unlikely.
Seattle’s baseball operations group has huddled on the topic, but not to the point where they’ve discussed it with players.
“When we get Logan back, when we get Bryce back, when we get George built up, we can have those conversations,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told MLB.com. “But right now, [not] trying to be too creative -- we're just trying to figure out how to manage today and tomorrow.”
Kirby will operate on a six-day routine for at least the next week or two, and Gilbert and Miller will join him on that schedule when they return.
Miller is optimistic that he could be activated on Seattle’s upcoming homestand, though that hasn’t been solidified. The Mariners will remain on turn for their series against the Nationals, with Logan Evans, Kirby and Emerson Hancock, in order. Gilbert will need a Minor League rehab assignment, which will extend his rehab into June.
The Mariners have four off-days to work with through June 19, beginning with yesterday’s, a span of 25 days, broken up by a six-game stretch with no breaks beginning Tuesday, followed by a nine-game stretch then another six-game stretch. Then, they have 17 straight games and, in total, play on 23 of the 24 days leading into the All-Star break.
Somewhere in that span -- if all goes well -- Gilbert, Kirby and Miller could be more stretched out to go back to a five-day routine.
“We try to keep guys on a six-day routine,” Mariners director of pitching strategy Trent Blank said. “We try to give them something consistent, because we are moving other things. So the one thing I would keep consistent is the amount of rest they have in between, and we're building the other things around it, but just create sole stability for them.”
Indeed, because MLB allocates more off-days earlier in the season, the Mariners begin mapping out that schedule at the outset of Spring Training, where nearly all Cactus League starts were made on a six-day. Of their 52 regular-season games so far, only 11 times has a starter been on a standard, five-day. And for what it’s worth, the Mariners have gone 9-2 in those games.
“If you take 32 or 33 starts in a season, you're not really on a five-man rotation,” Dipoto said. “There might be five times where you're starting on the fifth day. More often you're starting on the sixth day. So if you bake in a six-man rotation, then everybody's getting two days of rest.”
Player consultation plays a part in the calculus, too.
“If you talk to some of our starters, they like being on normal rest,” Blank said. “Some of them don't like the extra day. They appreciate consistency. And so that's probably like the most overlooked thing.”
The large reason that this has become a topic is the emergence of the personnel that would allow for it, as Hancock and Evans have performed well as fill-ins. Take away Hancock’s brutal first outing vs. the Tigers, and that tandem has a 4.11 ERA with a 9-3 team record.
If the Mariners remain adamant about a five-man rotation, one of those arms will likely be optioned to Triple-A Tacoma if Miller returns this weekend, then the other could be when Gilbert is back.
“I think the biggest silver lining is that we've maintained a pretty good spot in the standings, and that we’ve found out a lot about Logan [Evans] and Emerson,” Dipoto said. “They've grown up in a very quick way.”
A six-man rotation wouldn’t be unfamiliar territory for Dipoto and Blank, as the club nearly installed one, albeit very briefly, towards the end of 2023, when Miller and Bryan Woo were rookies and blowing past career highs in innings while in the thick of a push to reach the postseason. They also used one at the outset of 2021, when they were emerging from their rebuild and had so many unproven arms.
But this situation -- one that may not even materialize -- is much different.
“It's more of an as-needed,” Blank said. “And yeah, we do have the personnel that would allow us to do that. So it's always on the table. But we're not looking to go that route.”