Most free agents entering their age-33 seasons don’t find great success in securing a healthy multi-year contract, especially those who don’t bring much -- or any -- defensive value to their game.
Kyle Schwarber isn’t most players.
The Phillies slugger made history this week, becoming only the second player in franchise history to hit 50 home runs in a season. Schwarber’s year has him in the National League Most Valuable Player conversation, as he entered Thursday leading the league in home runs (50) and RBIs (123), pacing a Phillies lineup that is headed for an NL East title and possibly a No. 1 seed in the NL.
Having already posted a career season at the age of 32, Schwarber has bigger goals in mind for the coming weeks, as he and the Phillies are looking for the franchise’s first World Series title since 2008. Whether the Commissioner’s Trophy is hoisted in Philly or somewhere else, Schwarber will be one of the most sought-after free agents this offseason, setting him up for another big payday despite the recent history for players at his age and position.
“I think he’s one of the more tricky projections in the game,” an NL executive said. “He is just different than other guys who have been in similar situations because he seems to just be getting better at an age when that shouldn’t be the case.”
Schwarber was ranked at No. 3 on our recent list of this offseason’s free agents, behind only Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. The Phillies, Orioles and Rangers were cited as potential fits, though other clubs including the Red Sox, Tigers, Padres, Reds and Braves could also make sense.
“He is a great player that would improve every team’s lineup,” another NL exec said.
Schwarber’s lack of positional flexibility -- sure, he can play left field, but he’s done so only 13 times since the start of 2024 and is considered a below-average defender -- will surely take some big-market teams out of the mix immediately. It’s difficult to see the Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton), Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani) or Giants (Rafael Devers) pursuing Schwarber given their current DH situations, but a number of clubs will certainly try to add his power bat to their lineup.
Schwarber’s importance to the Phillies goes beyond what he does at the plate, which is why it wasn’t surprising when John Middleton, the Phillies’ managing partner, said last month that the team plans to do everything it can to keep Schwarber in Philly beyond 2025.
Schwarber has been described by some teammates as the “heart” of the Phillies, which is saying something given the presence of star veterans including Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler.
“He’s a great person in the dugout, he’s a great person in the clubhouse,” Middleton said. “We love him, we want to keep him.”
So what will it take to sign Schwarber?
Finding a good comp for a 33-year-old DH coming off of his best season is a difficult task. Most DH-only players don’t land big multi-year contracts in the first place; they typically become a DH in the middle of a long-term deal that was signed while they still played a position.
“I’d take the under on $100 million, but it’s not impossible,” an AL executive said. “The guy can hit. The closest comp off the top of my head would be Nelson Cruz signing with Seattle (four years, $57 million) a long time ago. Cruz was older and there’s been a lot of inflation since then; now that I think about it, $100 million is not crazy.”
Cruz was entering his age-34 season when he signed that deal, so the comp isn’t bad even if it stretches back more than a decade ago to December 2014.
More recently, J.D. Martinez signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Red Sox in the spring of 2018 as he entered his age-30 season. Martinez was an All-Star in every full season of the deal, the lone exception coming in 2020, when there was no All-Star Game.
“Martinez is a good comp,” an NL executive said. “Guys like him and Schwarber have the swing and makeup to hit well into their mid-to-late 30s, so age isn’t as much of a concern.”
Martinez did play some outfield for Boston, though that decreased each season. After playing 57 games in the field in 2018, Martinez played 38 in 2019, six in the abbreviated 2020 season, 36 in 2021 and none in 2022. During the final two years of Martinez’s career with the Dodgers and Mets, he was the DH 228 times against only three games in the outfield.
“The plus [with being a full-time DH] is that you know his defense can’t get much worse as he ages,” added an AL executive.
Schwarber is finishing the four-year, $79 million deal he signed with the Phillies prior to the 2022 season, though he had missed six weeks with a hamstring injury during his contract year in '21. He also hadn’t matured into the consistent threat that he has become since joining the Phillies, with whom he has averaged 45 homers and 106 RBIs with an .855 OPS while playing no fewer than 150 games.
“I don’t know how the Phillies let him leave,” an NL executive said. “I have to believe they’ll do everything they can to keep him.”
Among those we spoke to, the consensus is that Schwarber should land a deal of four or five years for at least $30 million per season. The days of signing players into their 40s are largely a thing of the past, but locking up Schwarber through his age-36 or age-37 season seems like it should be in play.
“I don’t think it will be a lot of teams pursuing him because of the cost, his age and defensive value -- which is none,” an AL executive said. “I expect that a lot of good teams with money will explore shorter-term, high-AAV possibilities with him.”
Even without the Dodgers and Yankees involved, Schwarber should find multiple teams willing to shell out big bucks for his services. Power like his is difficult to find, so even without a defensive component to his game, the three-time All-Star should be a popular target for offense-needy clubs.
“I think a shorter-term, higher-end [average annual value] deal is probably going to be out there from a few different clubs for sure,” an NL executive said. “It will just be a question of whether someone wants to step up and sign him for longer to get it done. It will be fascinating to see how it plays out.”