How would Padres' October rotation shake out? Drop Arraez in lineup? Your questions answered

September 10th, 2025

On Wednesday, Padres beat reporter AJ Cassavell conducted an AMA (ask me anything) on Reddit. You can read the full transcript here. But these are the highlights (edited lightly for clarity and brevity):

What do you think our playoff rotation is going to be? Obviously and , but who follows them up in a Wild Card series? Does manager Mike Shildt trust or more?

Definitely Pivetta-King (or King-Pivetta if we see Ace Michael King down the stretch). Then, I like Cease in Game 3. Cease has been far too inconsistent this season -- even within his own starts. But one benefit of playoff baseball is that the moment Cease begins to teeter, you can go to your bullpen immediately. I think Cease's next few starts in the regular season will be about earning more trust ahead of those playoff starts. But still ... if he's been dominant for three innings, then starts to nibble in the fourth -- with this bullpen, there's no reason not to use it as soon as possible.

Why has Shildt been so adamant about keeping at No. 2 in the lineup?

I think Shildt has been adamant about Arraez being the version of himself from the 2022-24 seasons, when he was a .371 OBP guy (and nearly .400 against righties). Or at least, he's adamant about ensuring Arraez gets back to that level. If Arraez is that guy, he's a very good option for the No. 2 spot (at least against righties). But we're getting to crunch time, and Arraez has not looked like that guy at all this season. We'll see how the lineup looks come October.

Like most fans, I love that general manager A.J. Preller isn't afraid to pursue major upgrades at the Deadline. But the games before August matter just as much as they do in the last two months. Has anyone ever posed the question of how much less expensive it would be to pursue a deeper roster before the season begins? Finding a decent LF and backup C during the spring, or in May, wouldn't have precluded bigger moves later and would have banked more wins.

I have posed this exact question to people, because I think there are games the Padres lost in June and July specifically because they waited to act on their thin starting lineup. The answer ... the prices drop significantly toward the Deadline as teams fall out of the race and must make a decision.

And, hey, last year, Preller traded for Arraez in early May. So he'll do it if he thinks the price is right.

Just to be clear, the trade isn't really what we're talking about here. That's a guy with 4 years of control, added to what's already a strength. It's the O'Hearn/Laureano deal. Those guys are both perfect fits. I don't think you're getting them at any point before July 31 (at least not at a reasonable price).

Not adding until July definitely comes with a cost in the standings. But you're almost always going to overpay if you move early.

Obviously the Padres dealt some serious talent at the Deadline, but internally does the front office believe they held onto some gems that they are higher on than the rest of the industry? Kruz Schoolcraft is getting rave reviews early, while Kash Mayfield and Miguel Mendez have had strong 2025 seasons. Jorge Quintana has great size for an 18 year old shortstop! Is our Pipeline underrated?

Yes, the Padres certainly think so. They know they gave up a lot. They were also very pleased with who they were able to hold onto. And you know what? They've earned the benefit of the doubt, having rebuilt their farm system on 3-4 other occasions. (And, yeah, lots of people very happy Schoolcraft fell to them in the Draft.)

What’s one thing you think the Padres should change if they make the postseason?

Against a left-handed starter, I don't want a lefty hitting second (as the Padres have done all season). I want Laureano there -- with his .916 OPS against left-handers. If you want a lefty to break things up at the top, bat him third and Machado fourth.