Could this be the year that Zack Wheeler finally wins his first Cy Young Award?
One of the best pitchers of his generation and inarguably a top-three pitcher in the sport in recent years, Wheeler is on his way to having one of the best seasons of his career. Heading into Friday’s showdown against his former team, the Mets, he sports a 2.76 ERA in 88 innings this season and 2.5 Wins Above Replacement, according to FanGraphs. Wheeler is doing so with sparkling underlying numbers that show this is no joke.
A top-10 Cy Young Award finisher in three of the previous four years, including runner-up placements in 2021 and ‘24, the 35-year-old Wheeler is showing no signs of slowing down. He’ll face stiff competition in Pirates phenom Paul Skenes and Giants’ veteran Logan Webb, but Wheeler figures to be in the Cy Young mix. Wheeler plans to retire when his current deal ends after the 2027 season, so this could be a final push to capture his first elusive Cy Young Award.
Here’s how Wheeler keeps producing at a high level and why this could be the year he takes home the game’s most prestigious pitching award.
The following numbers are entering Thursday's games.
He’s missing more bats than ever
We’re burying the lede a bit here, but Wheeler has been better across the board. Let’s start with the uptick in whiffs and strikeouts.
From 2023-24, Wheeler struck out 436 batters, just two strikeouts short of Dylan Cease’s MLB-leading 438 strikeouts in that time. Wheeler has three career 200-plus strikeout seasons and another four seasons of at least 160 strikeouts. This was already one of the biggest strikeout producers in the game.
Wheeler’s taken it up a notch this season with 110 strikeouts (fourth-most) and a 32.5 percent strikeout rate (third-best among qualified starters). With a strong baseline already in place for producing strikeouts, Wheeler is blowing his previous seasons out of the water.
Wheeler from 2021-24 vs. ‘25
Strikeout rate: 27.9% vs. 32.5%
Whiff rate: 27.1% vs. 29.5%
In-zone contact rate: 79.7% vs. 76.6%
Putaway rate: 22.4% vs. 24.6%
Wheeler has produced at least eight strikeouts on six different pitch types, with his 44 four-seamer punchouts leading the way. Wheeler’s trio of fastballs (four-seamer, sinker and cutter) have generated 66 of his strikeouts, the fourth-most fastball strikeouts of any pitcher this season.
Hitters haven’t had much luck on his non-fastballs, either. In 118 plate appearances ending with Wheeler’s sweeper, splitter and curveball, opposing hitters have just 16 hits and a .397 OPS, and have whiffed on 36.8 percent of swings.
What’s led to the uptick in swing-and-miss stuff? The fastball profiles are largely the same, but Wheeler’s curveball is generating nearly an additional three inches of break with 2 1/2 inches of drop, while the sweeper has three more inches of break. Still, the biggest factor seemingly driving Wheeler’s improved performance is …
Impeccable command
Even before this season, Wheeler was the rare pitcher who boasted excellent strikeout and walk numbers, not to mention his supreme durability.
From 2021-24, Wheeler’s 22.3 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate ranked ninth-best among pitchers with at least 300 innings. The combination of strikeouts (27.9%) and lack of walks (5.6%) made him a tough matchup.
Like the uptick in swing-and-miss numbers, Wheeler is showing career-best command numbers in two key categories.
Wheeler from 2021-24 vs. ‘25
Zone rate: 50.2% vs. 52.7%
Edge rate: 44.0% vs. 46.1%
These changes aren’t quite as drastic, but Wheeler’s command was already top-shelf. Now, Wheeler is pounding the zone at a career-high clip, while placing more of those pitches on the edge, where batters have the most difficulty doing damage.
Wheeler’s excellent edge rate gives you a glimpse of why he has been such a tough matchup. Only nine qualified starters have a better edge rate and all of them are viewed as command-over-stuff pitchers. The one pitcher Wheeler is tied with in this metric who combines excellent stuff and an ability to dot the edge of the zone? That would be Skenes (46.1 percent rate).
When you combine Wheeler’s stuff and command, only one other starter has rivaled him this season. Of the seven qualified starters boasting a strikeout rate of at least 30 percent, Wheeler’s 5.6 percent walk rate is only bested by Tarik Skubal’s 2.7 percent mark.
One of baseball’s most diverse arsenals
These improvements can’t be talked about without referencing Wheeler’s increasingly diverse arsenal.
Every season, Wheeler tinkers here and there with his arsenal, adding a sweeper into the mix in 2023 and bringing a splitter back last season. This year, Wheeler is the rare pitcher who is throwing six different pitches a good chunk of the time.
The three fastballs still account for a majority of his mix (71.0 percent), but Wheeler is now throwing each of his six pitches at least 9.6 percent of the time. And with Wheeler’s elite command, he’s been able to account for every part of the strike zone and beyond.
Being the complete pitcher that he is, Wheeler changes his approach based on the batter's handedness.
Against right-handed hitters, the approach simplifies, with Wheeler throwing his four-seamer, sinker and sweeper at least 26.6 percent of the time, while all but ditching the curveball and cutter. In 142 plate appearances against Wheeler, right-handed hitters have a .602 OPS with 45 strikeouts compared to just six walks.
Wheeler’s been even better against opposite-handed hitters, allowing a career-best .534 OPS in 196 plate appearances, while striking out 65 hitters. The arsenal expands against lefties, with Wheeler throwing his four-seamer, cutter, curveball and splitter at least 13.4 percent of the time.
This is about as complete as a pitcher is going to look. With his résumé of durability and high-level production -- not to mention his sparkling postseason success (2.18 ERA in 70 1/3 career playoff innings) -- Wheeler had already entered the year as one of the top starters in the sport. Now, we’re seeing the culmination of what might be the best year of Wheeler’s career, and possibly the path to his first Cy Young Award.