In the last 25 years, the Cubs have originally signed and developed just three homegrown pitchers who became All-Stars for them: Mark Prior, Jeff Samardzija and Justin Steele. The most recent of that trio, Steele, was drafted 11 years ago.
Chicago famously ended its 108-year World Series title drought in 2016 and seemed positioned to stack championships with a young nucleus of hitters. But its inability to produce arms have led to just one postseason series victory since and no playoffs in a full season since 2018.
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
The Cubs currently are rolling with the best record in the National League Central (22-16) and a wholly imported rotation now that Steele is lost for the season following elbow surgery. But recent history may be about to change.
Cade Horton is expected to join Chicago for its weekend series in New York, filling a void in the rotation left when ace Shota Imanaga went on the 15-day injured list Monday with a strained left hamstring. Horton is the organization's best pitching prospect since Prior, a generational arm who dominated when healthy in the big leagues but lasted just 106 starts.
No. 46 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, Horton would rank higher if he hadn't missed most of last season with a shoulder strain. The Cubs committed to bringing him back carefully this spring, and his stuff has bounced back while he has dominated Triple-A hitters.
The 23-year-old Horton has allowed just four runs in six starts and leads the International League in ERA (1.24) and opponent average (.129) while striking out 33 in 29 innings. He walked 10 batters in his first three outings before dialing in his control and issuing just three free passes in his last three games.
Fully healthy again, Horton is back to operating in the mid-90s and topping out at 98 mph with his fastball. Interestingly, he has added a running and sinking two-seamer to his standard four-seamer that carries more toward the top of the strike zone. His 83-86 mph slider with two-plane depth remains his best pitch, a true wipeout offering at its best, and he also can mix in a curveball with similar velocity and an upper-80s changeup with fade.
The same athleticism that made Horton one of the top two-sport and two-way prospects in the 2020 high school class helps him repeat his efficient delivery and provide consistent strikes. He has the pitches and polish to become a frontline starter, though he'll have to prove that he has the durability. He pitched just 53 2/3 innings in two college seasons at Oklahoma and has worked just 151 2/3 frames in two-plus full seasons as a pro.
Horton joined the Sooners as a dual-sport recruit but never made it on to the football field as a quarterback. He also sat out his first baseball season after blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery in February 2021.
After recovering, Horton began his redshirt freshman year in 2022 as Oklahoma's starting third baseman and didn't take the mound until late March. He finished the regular season with a 7.94 ERA, then discovered his slider and dominated in the postseason en route to a second-place finish at the College World Series.
In 2014, the Cubs liked Kyle Schwarber more than any club and surprised many by drafting him fourth overall, a move that allowed them to sign him to an under-slot bonus and give seven-figure bonuses to three high school pitchers later in the Draft (including Steele in the fifth round). They executed a similar strategy with Horton in 2022, taking him seventh overall, giving him a below-slot $4,450,000 bonus (the highest in franchise history for a Draft arm) and using the savings to land prep left-hander Jackson Ferris in the second round. Ferris since has developed into one of baseball's best southpaw pitching prospects, though he was sent to the Dodgers in the January 2024 trade for Michael Busch.
Horton wasted little time establishing himself as pro, earning Cubs system pitcher of the year honors in his 2023 pro debut. He posted a 2.65 ERA, .191 opponent average and 117/27 K/BB ratio in 88 1/3 innings while advancing to Double-A, then excelled there to begin last season before earning a promotion to Triple-A and injuring his shoulder.
Horton has better pure stuff than anyone currently in Chicago's rotation, so he's equipped to be more than a short-term solution. It's unclear how many innings he can handle this year after his abbreviated 2024, though the Cubs have said they will monitor his stuff and stress rather than establishing a pre-set limit.