It’s July, which means All-Star month and the informal end of the first half of the season. It certainly isn’t too early to start trying to project what the October postseason field will look like. Are our current division leaders for real?
Here’s a look at those current leaders and what the playoff field could look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place
Since 1996, the first full season with at least one Wild Card, 109 of 168 eventual division champions held at least a share of that division lead entering July 1. That’s 65 percent of division winners.
Take note, Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers fans -- those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.
Last season, four of the six division leaders on July 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Guardians won their division, while the Orioles, who led the AL East entering July by percentage points, made the postseason as a Wild Card instead. The Mariners led the West entering July and went on to miss the playoffs. In the NL, the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers all won their divisions after leading entering July.
If you were wondering, there have been three seasons in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering July 1: 1996-97 and ‘99.
Since 1996, 18 of the 28 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering July. The Dodgers did so last year.
This year’s leaders overall
Of this year’s current division leaders entering July, each has had at least a share of that lead entering July at least one other time since 2019, except one. The Tigers are in this spot for the first time since 2014.
Each of the current leaders won its division last year -- except the Cubs, who last did so in 2020 and in ‘17 in a full season, and Tigers, who last did in 2014.
Speaking of Detroit, the Tigers lead the AL Central by 11 1/2 games. That’s tied for the sixth-largest division lead entering July, with the 2022 Astros (divisional play began in 1969), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Only the 2001 Mariners (20-game lead), 2017 Astros (13 1/2), 2022 Yankees (12 1/2), 1999 Cleveland (12 1/2) and 2019 Dodgers (12) led by more at this point.
What’s next
Even three-plus months in, there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, more than half of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff- or division-leading position, there’s still plenty of hope -- while 65% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 35% do not, too. Only time will tell.