A rollercoaster first half has come to an end for the Twins, and perhaps appropriately given all the highs and lows, they’re right around .500 as the All-Star break hits. They’ve endured two rough spells, one brilliant hot streak, and a few weeks -- though not many -- in between.
Extensive injury issues have hit both the starting rotation and lineup, but both units are trending toward health, with youngsters Zebby Matthews and Luke Keaschall moving closer to playing and Pablo López hopefully not far behind.
Still, a great deal is unsettled for Minnesota at the break. It’s not even entirely clear whether the Twins will buy or sell at the Trade Deadline. That may well be determined by their on-field play over the next two weeks.
The second half starts with a tricky trip to Colorado and Los Angeles, followed by a pivotal homestand against the Nationals and Red Sox. With less than two and a half months remaining in the season, here’s a brief look back at the first 96 games and a bit of an examination of the next 66.
One second half goal
Get the best hitters going. Byron Buxton has been amazing, but the rest of the Twins’ top hitters have fallen short of expectations. Carlos Correa has been healthy, but his overall numbers are well off what he’s capable of. Royce Lewis is getting hits but is not hitting for power, and Matt Wallner is the opposite -- hitting homers but batting .205. If the lineup core gets going, the team will, as well.
Likely Trade Deadline strategy
Still figuring it out. They’re not likely to make huge moves, and it’s conceivable that they could make both small additions and small subtractions. They could probably use a left-handed reliever and a corner bat. The Twins also could move some of their impending free agents, a list that includes Chris Paddack, Willi Castro, Christian Vázquez, Danny Coulombe and Ty France. There’s interest in their back-end relievers, but that type of sell seems unlikely.
Key player: Pablo López
There were plenty of other factors, but it’s not completely coincidental that the Twins’ slide began just as López hit the injured list with a strained muscle in his shoulder. He’s begun throwing off flat ground, so he’s likely a good ways away from getting into games, but his durability, effectiveness and leadership are critical. The sooner he’s back, the more likely the Twins are to make the postseason.
Prospect to watch: Luke Keaschall
Keaschall, ranked by MLB Pipeline as Minnesota's No. 3 prospect and No. 45 overall, provided the Twins an instant jolt of energy when he was called up in April, then suffered a broken arm almost immediately. He’s begun taking live at-bats and could start a rehab assignment soon. His slashing style brings a different and valuable dimension to the Twins' lineup, and if he comes back strong, it would be an enormous boost.
Schedule analysis
As of a couple of weeks ago, the Twins had played the most road games in baseball. They finally got a long homestand and made a little hay, but things get challenging out of the break, with road series in both Los Angeles and Detroit within the next three weeks.
- Game remaining: 66 (Home, 33; Away, 33)
- Remaining strength of schedule: .488, 24th in MLB, 12th in AL, third in AL Central
- Key series:
- July 28-30: With the Trade Deadline looming, the Twins have three games against the Red Sox, one of the teams they’re chasing in the Wild Card race
- Aug. 1-3: At Cleveland right after the Deadline. Progressive Field has been a house of horrors for the Twins, but with this year’s Guardians team looking vulnerable, it will be vital not to stumble here.
- Sept. 5-10: A possible make-or-break road trip, with series at the Royals and Angels, two of the other teams in the crowded Wild Card mix