This story was excerpted from MLB Pipeline's newsletter. Subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
April is the month of the arched eyebrow.
After the cold winter months wondering how players would perform come spring, we get our answers out of the gate, but we don’t always trust them. How much of this is real? How much is the result of a small sample? Of course, the more numbers we get, the stronger we feel about a player’s performance. But some numbers give us a deeper sense of trust than others.
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
We’re not quite a month into the Triple-A season yet, but we are close. With Statcast available at that level, there is some data that can aid our understanding of gaudy numbers or help us see prospects in different ways than traditional stats can on their own.
Here are some Statcast numbers that should draw interest for Top 100 prospects at the Minors’ highest level:
Roman Anthony: 31.9 percent barrel rate (barrel per batted-ball event)
First, let’s define what a barrel is -- a batted ball with an exit velocity of 98 mph or higher hit at an optimal launch angle (as is based on the exact exit velocity). In other words, if you hit a barrel, you pounded the ball as planned. Anthony -- the top position-player prospect in baseball -- leads Triple-A with 15 barrels, entering this week; no one else has more than 12. His 31.9 percent barrel rate is also tops among 266 Triple-A hitters (min. 50 PA); no one in the Majors has one higher than 27.6 (Cal Raleigh) under the same restrictions. The Red Sox top prospect has the prodigious strength to hit the ball hard, and he makes the right swing decisions to optimize that physicality. It’s a potent combination in Worcester and a reason to be excited beyond his good .273/.415/.530 line through 18 games.
Alex Freeland: 63.9 percent hard-hit rate
Hard-hit rate is defined as percentage of batted-ball events at or above 95 mph exit velocity, meaning more than three-fifths of the ball the Dodgers' No. 5 prospect is putting in play for Triple-A Oklahoma City are scorchers. That’s interesting coming from a switch-hitter with what was considered average pop coming into 2025. Freeland doesn’t have the upper-tier top EVs that Anthony does -- he’s maxed out at 109.5 mph so far -- and his strikeout rate has crept back up to 26.5 percent. But when he gets bat to ball, it tends to be loud contact, and his 11 doubles in 21 games speak to that.
Harry Ford: 10.2 percent chase rate
At 22 years old, the Mariners' No. 4 prospect is one of the youngest players in Triple-A ball, but you wouldn’t know it by his approach. Ford has swung at only 10.2 percent of pitches outside the zone over 56 plate appearances. That’s the lowest chase rate for any of the 241 Triple-A hitters who have seen 100 pitches outside the zone so far in 2025. He’s only swung and missed on two of those 12 swings too. Ford’s overall .238/.411/.262 is certainly an odd one for Tacoma, but that OBP isn’t a soft one right now. Focusing on more drivable pitches in the days ahead could help Ford’s other numbers come around in his first taste of Tacoma.
Bubba Chandler: Four-seam fastball metrics
There have been 78 Triple-A pitchers who have thrown at least 100 four-seam fastballs this season. Among them, Chandler ranks third in average induced vertical break (18.5 inches), fourth in average velocity (98.5 mph), fifth in whiff percentage (41.8 percent) and eighth in average spin rate (2,451 rpm). It’s a hard pitch with a ton of spin and ride, and batters haven’t been able to touch that type of heat with only three hits of Chandler’s four-seamer in four starts. The Pirates' No. 1 prospect owns a 1.76 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 23 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings.
Caden Dana: 56.0 percent slider whiff rate
Only one Top 100 prospect has thrown a pitch 25 or more times at Triple-A this season and generated a whiff rate above 50 percent. That’s the Angels right-hander’s gyro slider, which has a little more vertical drop and a little less sweep than it did in the Majors last year. The Angels' No. 2 prospect is throwing from a slightly higher slot, which might be affecting that movement, and he’s still relying primarily on his four-seam fastball against batters from both sides (61.7 percent) and going to other offerings against lefties. But the slider has been a downright weapon against righties and should offer him a return to Anaheim after his one appearance on April 4.
Owen Caissie: .611 xSLG
Looking for a prospect who might be ready to pop off? Turn to the Cubs’ No. 3 prospect, who enters this week with just a .208/.296/.479 line and 97 wRC+ for Triple-A Iowa. Caissie’s .611 expected slugging percentage -- based on a calculation of factors such as exit velocity and launch angle -- is third-best among 232 Triple-A players with at least 50 plate appearances. Only Anthony (.711) and Will Wilson (.688) rank higher. Sure, Caissie’s overall strikeout numbers are an issue with a 37 percent K rate, but his loud contact (53.6 percent hard-hit rate, 28.6 percent barrel rate) could lead to more eye-popping numbers, especially as it warms up across the International League.