The baseball calendar constantly offers opportunity for fans to freak out.
We freak out about slumps, about the standings, about injuries, about trades that disrupt rosters, about signings that do or do not happen, about the possibility of a rare, invasive, bat-eating bug infesting our favorite team’s equipment room and forcing them to forfeit the remainder of the season.
That’s why, for the last decade, we’ve had a recurring segment on MLB Network’s “MLB Central” morning show (weekday mornings at 10 a.m. ET) called “Freak-Out Factor,” in which these various issues are properly rated on a scale of 1 (no biggie) to 10 (full-on FREAK OUT).
But let’s be clear: There is no better time to freak out than … right now! It’s mid-August, summer is winding down, and, as we enter the season’s home stretch, every setback seems bigger than ever.
So let’s take a look at some recent developments and see where they fall on the patented, scientifically savvy Freak-Out Factor (FOF) scale. (Numbers below are through Tuesday’s games.)
Zack Wheeler is on the IL!
FOF: 9, or how many quality starts Wheeler has pitched for the Phils in the postseason
Wheeler hasn’t been the most celebrated or decorated pitcher in MLB since he joined the Phillies in 2020. He’s just been the best. He’s the only pitcher in the game in that span with at least 900 innings and an ERA+ at least 40% better than the league average.
This guy is a gamer, a great pro. And you have to feel for him right now as he recovers from Monday’s procedure, which removed a blood clot from his right upper extremity. That’s scary stuff. And in less-important baseball terms, it’s concerning stuff, given where we’re at in the baseball calendar and where the Phillies are in their championship window.
If healthy, the Phils have all the makings of a World Series winner now that they acquired a lockdown closer in Jhoan Duran. But Father Time is ticking against them, with Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suárez all pending free agents and other key players also in their 30s. The October outlook in Philly is certainly compromised to some degree if Wheeler is absent. Suárez’s strong start against the Mariners on Monday was evidence he understands his assignment going forward.
Vladdy hurt his hammy!
FOF: 3, for the first base position Guerrero was playing when he overstretched his leg
The Blue Jays made Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million man at the start of the season, and, in the last couple months, he’s looked the part. He’s got a .331/.416/.596 slash in his last 43 games, delivering that special blend of contact and power that comes when he’s at his locked-and-loaded best.
Guerrero did the splits making a nice pick on a play at first base Monday night in Pittsburgh and had to leave the game with hamstring tightness. He received an MRI as a precaution and was out of the lineup Tuesday and Wednesday. But for now, the inflammation does not seem super serious.
While the Blue Jays have an abnormally deep lineup (12 position players have been worth at least 1.0 bWAR), Guerrero is obviously elemental in their push for what could be their best shot at an AL pennant since 2016. So let’s not induce any more agita, Vladdy.
The Cubs crumbled in the NL Central!
FOF: 6 1/2, or the Cubs’ NL Central lead as recently as June 17
There are a lot of reasons the Cubs quickly went from 6 1/2 games up to nine back entering Tuesday, before getting back within seven by sweeping a doubleheader from the first-place Brewers. Many of those reasons revolve around those Brewers basically forgetting how to lose a baseball game for an entire month (with Andrew Vaughn suddenly turning into peak Mo Vaughn).
But to be sure, the Cubs have contributed issues of their own to the equation. To be “all-in” enough to make the Kyle Tucker trade in the offseason and then have as tepid a Trade Deadline as the Cubs did was baffling, and the club itself has been pretty tepid in the aftermath. Pete Crow-Armstrong has not been the dynamo he was in the season’s first half, and Tucker has struggled to the point of being booed and now briefly benched for a mental reset. A Cade Horton blister issue on Monday was another blow.
Still, the Cubs remain in a commanding Wild Card position, which is why we’ll keep the FOF manageable here (for now, at least). While their rotation sure feels an arm or two short, it’s actually performed pretty well in the second half (MLB-best 3.10 ERA, entering Wednesday). The Central flame is probably extinguished, but, if PCA and Tucker can turn things back around (and it says here they can) and if late-season callup Owen Caissie can bring a boost (and it looks like it so far), the Cubs can still flip the script come October, when it matters most.
The Yankees have issues!
FOF: 9, for the right field position upended by Aaron Judge’s elbow injury
Despite a recent standings scare, the Yankees are still quite likely to reach October. But they still have a lot to prove before anybody should feel confident penciling them in for a World Series return.
Right now, Judge, who seems to have slipped behind Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh in the AL MVP race with an uncharacteristic and injury-riddled second half, is unavailable in right. And unsurprisingly, Giancarlo Stanton’s body didn’t respond particularly well to right field play last week. That complicates the lineup picture, as does Jasson Domínguez’s damaging defense in left field.
Meanwhile, Max Fried appears to have hit a wall (7.00 ERA since the All-Star break), a troubling trend for a rotation that has survived without Gerrit Cole but needs an ace come October. At the same time, a new-look bullpen is deep on options but has yet to settle into a real rhythm.
If the Yankees aren’t hitting dingers aplenty -- which they certainly did do on Tuesday night -- they look pretty ordinary and still have many of the issues with poor fundamentals that plagued them in the World Series last year. Plus, you could argue the AL playoff field looks more arduous this year than it did in 2024.
Francisco Alvarez is on the shelf!
FOF: 11, or how many runs Alvarez has driven in this month
Demoted to the Minors in mid-June, Alvarez returned to the Mets on July 21 and has slashed .323/.408/.645 in the time since. But he jammed his thumb in the Little League Classic and hit the IL on Tuesday with an injury that will, at some point, require surgery.
If it feels like it’s one thing after another for the Mets, that’s because it is. Their starters average fewer than five innings per game (though freshly promoted prospect Nolan McLean provided a jolt of upside against the Mariners last weekend), so they run the risk of wearing out their new-look bullpen before (and if) they reach October. They somehow blew leads in seven straight games recently. And on the whole, their offense has not come as advertised, in part because most of the power production from Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor has come with no runners on base.
Hopefully, Alvarez will be able to play through this in 2025, because the Mets’ catching situation beyond him is sub-optimal. (Note that the FOF system is programmed to ratchet up the intensity of Mets freak-outs in order to keep up with the populace.)
The Rangers have endured an unsightly August!
FOF: 12, or how many August games the Rangers had lost, entering Wednesday
Texas added to its already impressive pitching staff at the Trade Deadline but balked at the price of bats and has continued to struggle to put up the requisite runs. It caught up to the Rangers in the standings, where they were just one game back of a Wild Card slot at the start of the month but were 5 1/2 back entering Wednesday.
This offense has been too Marcus Semien-oriented this year. Texas is 32-11 when Semien scores a run, 30-52 when he doesn’t. He’s a 34-year-old second baseman in his second straight season of offensive regression, and manager Bruce Bochy moved him down to the No. 6 spot in the batting order last weekend.
The Padres got swept by the Dodgers!
FOF: 2, or how many games back San Diego was after the sweep in L.A.
Apparently, the problem with overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West, as the Padres briefly did, is that it wakes L.A. from its slumber. Between a vintage start from Clayton Kershaw and a huge homer from Mookie Betts, the Dodgers looked reborn last weekend, and their rotation is getting healthy just in time for the games that matter most.
But even if the baseball world will continue to paint the Padres as the little brother in this relationship, this is no time for a Friar freak-out. There’s another Dodgers series looming this weekend at Petco Park, for one. And more importantly, should these clubs meet again come October (here’s hoping), the postseason is such a bullpen-oriented environment that the Padres would be right to feel optimistic that they can out-arm a Dodgers team that’s iffy in the late innings.
The Guardians played with our emotions!
FOF: 10, or how many games the Guards lost in a row from June 26-July 6 before a surprising midsummer surge
Despite having two key pitchers (Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz) on non-disciplinary paid leave and dealing an important potential pitching reinforcement (Shane Bieber) at the Trade Deadline, the Guardians cut their AL Central deficit down from 14 games to just five at one point this month and were also breathing down the necks of the Yankees in the Wild Card race.
Then came the past two series, in which the Guards were swept at home by a sub-.500 Braves squad and then dropped two of three to the sub-.500 D-backs. Cleveland’s playoff odds, per FanGraphs, dropped from 29.9% on Friday to 15.9% going into Wednesday. Things can ebb and flow quickly this time of year, but the Yankees have the softest schedule in MLB the rest of the way, and the Guardians, with no shortage of offensive issues, have spent the bulk of the season looking little like the club that pestered its way to the ALCS last season. It feels like it could be a wasted year of José Ramírez’s prime.