SAN DIEGO -- Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers have been playing the long game when it comes to him being built up as a pitcher. But he has been accelerating in recent weeks -- so much so that he built up to three simulated innings and 44 pitches Tuesday afternoon at Petco Park in his third session facing hitters.
Conventional wisdom held that Ohtani would not be on a big league mound until after the All-Star break, given that he needed to go through a full buildup during the season -- while also fulfilling his duties as the Dodgers' everyday designated hitter.
But with the progress he has made, is there a case for Ohtani returning as a pitcher before the All-Star break? Manager Dave Roberts said there's a "north of zero" chance.
"It's tempting," Roberts said hours before the Dodgers dropped an 11-1 decision to the Padres in the second game of the series. "I'm sure Shohei is tempted to just rip the Band-Aid off and get into a big league game, but I think we're doing a good job of trying to be patient."
Ohtani hasn't pitched in the Majors since August 2023, about a month before he underwent a procedure to repair his right ulnar collateral ligament, his second major surgery on his throwing elbow. He also had labrum surgery on his left shoulder this past offseason, which has led the Dodgers to approach his rehab with even more caution.
Ohtani's workload against Dodgers Arizona Complex League hitters was his heaviest yet, surpassing the two innings and 29 pitches he threw in his previous live session on May 31. He breezed through his first two frames on Tuesday before needing 23 pitches to get through the third, and he struck out six against a walk and a base hit.
There is no set volume the Dodgers are targeting before Ohtani gets into a big league game, although the benchmark for starting pitchers tends to be around six innings and 90 pitches.
"It certainly doesn’t have to be a full buildup, because anything he can give us is certainly additive," Roberts said. "But I still stand by him, and Dr. [Neal] ElAttrache and the training staff are going to drive this. I’m just anxious for the next one."
The Dodgers have been using bullpen games with regularity because of several injuries to their starting pitchers. Short starts from Ohtani, at least early on, would not have much of an effect on their relievers' workload.
There's also roster flexibility given Ohtani's two-way player status. If it makes sense, the team could afford to have him start games before he's fully built up, and he wouldn't take up one of the 13 roster spots for pitchers.
One of the most important factors was that Ohtani was able to maintain his stuff and velocity -- which was around the 94-96 mph range -- throughout his three innings on the mound on Tuesday. That, plus his workload, are signs the Dodgers are looking for.
"You start getting close to 44, you start getting into the 60- and 70-pitch range, then you can start envisioning and dreaming about being in a game," pitching coach Mark Prior said. "Because then you know that he has the volume under him to go out there and at least take down multiple innings in a real game."
While Ohtani is getting closer, both Roberts and Prior acknowledged how his unique circumstances mean that his buildup is not always a linear process. Case in point: His heavy throwing days usually take place over the weekend. But the weather in St. Louis led the Dodgers to pencil in Monday for his live session, and it was pushed back an additional day as a precaution when Ohtani was hit by a pitch on his left foot on Sunday.
"There's a lot of variables that change on a daily basis with him that we don't normally come across with pitchers," Prior said.
With Ohtani's progress comes some additional positive momentum for L.A.'s pitching staff. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow have both turned a corner recently, and both threw bullpen sessions on Tuesday. The Dodgers have gotten by without their rotation at full strength, but they're starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
"There’s one side of it of just trying to focus on the guys that you have and keep moving forward," Roberts said. "And the other part of it is the anticipation of guys coming back and becoming whole. … You can start to see us get to the other side."