TORONTO -- The wait is almost over. Shane Bieber is coming.
Friday night in Buffalo left no doubt that Bieber, the Cy Young Award winner and Toronto’s biggest Trade Deadline splash with the potential to lead them deep into October, is ready to make his Blue Jays debut.
Bieber threw seven shutout innings, scattering six hits while striking out four in what’s expected to be the final start of his Tommy John rehab with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. The 30-year-old looked smooth and steady, in full control of the zone over 90 pitches. It’s everything the Blue Jays could have hoped for.
Now, manager John Schneider and the Blue Jays can plot out what everyone’s been waiting for since they dealt their No. 5 prospect, breakout right-hander Khal Stephen, to the Guardians at the Trade Deadline.
“Just in talking to him, he’s an adult. It’s an adult presence,” Schneider said. “It’s a guy with a Cy Young Award. That, coupled with what his stuff looks like and how he’s rebounding from his outings, it’s all really encouraging. It obviously raises the floor, but it really raises the ceiling if he’s what we think he can be.”
Schneider has been spoiled by a veteran, rock-solid pitching staff since he took over the Blue Jays in 2022, but this organization is aiming higher now. It’s not about sneaking into the playoffs, it’s about winning the AL East, finishing atop the AL entirely and skipping right past the Wild Card round that’s given them fits. Even Schneider is dreaming on the upside.
“You’re talking about a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, a guy who’s been in big moments, done well and really understands how to pitch. It’s exhilarating,” Schneider said.
Let’s frame Bieber’s stuff against his 2022 averages. His velocities have always held steady, but coming off a ‘24 season mostly lost to Tommy John surgery and a more pedestrian ‘23 season, the ‘22 campaign represents the best of Bieber.
By the numbers: Bieber’s rehab outing vs. 2022 averages
4-seam fastball: 92.5 mph (+1.2 mph)
Slider: 85.3 mph (+0.3)
Changeup: 88.8 mph (+2.4)
Cutter: 87.8 mph (+0.9)
Knuckle-curve: 83.1 mph (+1.1)
Many of these numbers are sitting closer to Bieber’s averages from 2020 and ‘21, when he was at his peak. Schneider mentioned Friday that he’s throwing a “different” changeup, which can explain that pitch registering a little harder, too. It’s not all about velocity here, and it never has been for Bieber, but there are zero red flags to be found in these numbers.
Next steps: Projecting Bieber’s debut
This is still a 1,000-piece puzzle that Schneider, pitching coach Pete Walker and the front office will spend the coming days staring at, but Bieber is worth prioritizing. Once his Blue Jays debut is set, everything else can orbit around that. Toronto’s rotation is built on veterans who all leave Schneider confident that these conversations -- even the uncomfortable ones -- will be handled professionally.
“We’ve talked to these guys multiple times already,” Schneider said. “We have to see where we are when that time arrives. All of those guys are aware of that. It will depend on what our starters have done, what our bullpen looks like. We have multiple plans in place to see where everyone is with their workload, health, stuff like that. They’re all aware of it. All of the starters are on board.”
The likely outcome here? Bieber could make his Blue Jays debut during next weekend’s road series in Miami against the Marlins. That could potentially set him on a path to make his home debut the following weekend against the Brewers in what could easily be billed as a World Series preview. The Yankees might line up for Bieber’s third start, too, but that’s getting a little far down the line.
Any day Bieber is on a big league mound is a great day for the Blue Jays, though, and we’re finally about to see their biggest, bolded addition on the big stage.