How does Seth Hernandez stack up against the best prep RHP Draft prospects ever?

A high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 in the Draft.

That’s an oft-repeated statement when discussing what is considered to be the highest-risk demographic in the Draft. There are teams that won’t go near a prep pitcher at the top of the first round, or early on at all.

As a result, it’s extremely rare for a high school righty to even be in the conversation at the top of the Draft. Over the past quarter-century, there have been just two examples: In 1999, the Rays seriously considered Josh Beckett before opting for the toolsy outfielder Josh Hamilton. And in 2017, there were members of the Twins scouting staff who really wanted to take Hunter Greene before they decided on Royce Lewis.

Nine high school right-handers have gone No. 2 overall in 60 years of the Draft:

1968: Pete Proberg (didn’t sign)
1969: JR Richard (22.2 bWAR)
1971: Jay Franklin (-0.2)
1974: Tommy Boggs (2.4)
1977: Bill Gullickson (23.3)
1999: Josh Beckett (35.7)
2010: Jameson Taillon (13.4)
2014: Tyler Kolek (--)
2017: Hunter Greene (11.3)

The 2025 class includes one prep arm hoping to break through that glass ceiling: Seth Hernandez from Corona High School in California. Currently ranked No. 3 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 250 Draft Prospects list, Hernandez is giving the Washington Nationals, owners of the No. 1 pick in the Draft, a whole lot to think about. Could he become the first, or will he be a victim to his demographic?

“I hear it more times than I want to,” Hernandez said about the perceived risk of taking a high school right-hander in the Draft. “Obviously, it’s a risky demographic, so I don’t blame people for thinking that."

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Hernandez has drawn comparisons to Beckett, who often is mentioned as the the best prep right-handed pitching prospect in Draft history. Hernandez went to YouTube to watch the former All-Star, who was the exact same size as Hernandez (6-foot-4, 190 pounds) when he was a high school senior in 1999. He’s not mad at the comp, even daring to dream about one-upping the 14-year big leaguer on Draft Day.

“What I have to prove, it’s so much more than the Draft,” Hernandez said. “I have a bright future ahead of me, and wherever I go in the Draft, it’s not going to affect me. Josh Beckett went second overall, so if I were to beat him out, that would be pretty cool.”

Along with Beckett, Greene and the likes of Dylan Bundy (No. 4 overall pick in 2011), Kerry Wood (No. 4 in 1995) and Lucas Giolito (No. 16 in 2012) all come up in discussions about the best prep right-handed Draft prospect of all time. Hernandez clearly belongs in the conversation.

“He’s way up there,” one veteran scouting executive said. “The day I saw the kid, he couldn’t have pitched any better. He would fit very high on the list with Kerry Wood and going back as far as you want to go. He’s very advanced.”

“Without a doubt he belongs in the conversation,” a second long-time evaluator said. “This kid has components of all of those other pitchers. He doesn’t have quite the same power to his curveball that Wood had. He doesn’t have quite the same aggressive demeanor Beckett had, but there’s a little bit of all of them in him.

“The thing he possesses is a demeanor and an ability to slow the game down that those guys didn’t possess until they reached the highest level of professional baseball.”

It’s Hernandez’s combination of electric stuff and feel for pitching that sets him apart. Hernandez sits in the mid-90s and touches 98 mph with his fastball with ease. He has two excellent breaking balls, a 12-to-6 spike curve that could be a plus pitch and a newer, harder slider. But it’s the changeup that is a real separator. It’s at least a plus pitch, and he’ll throw it to any hitter at any point in the count.

“I’ve always had a really good feel with it,” Hernandez said, adding that he’s basically been throwing the same version since eighth grade. “I could wake up out of bed now and probably throw that pitch for a strike. I’m super blessed to be able to have that in my back pocket.”

Scouts agree that Hernandez’s ability to turn over that changeup sets him apart from some of the other highly regarded prep righties in history. Even if someone like Greene was considered a better overall talent, Hernandez’s pitchability is in a different category.

“Seth Hernandez is way advanced compared to Hunter Greene,” the first scouting executive said. “Hunter is still developing his offspeed stuff. Seth is one of the more advanced high school pitchers I’ve seen.

“You could go see a really good high school pitcher, it’s usually a very good fastball he commands well, then a curve or a slider. The high-level ones don’t have a real good changeup. They don’t need it so they don’t practice it. Seth Hernandez has an off-the-charts changeup. That’s where you see the advancement.”

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Hernandez turned 19 at the end of June, which would be considered “old” for a high school Draft prospect by some. There are teams for whom that’s also a disqualifier, with models that might kick out any high school player who is 19 at Draft time. But not everyone sees Hernandez’s age as a detriment.

“I would build the argument that he’s a lower risk because of his age; that helps him,” the first scouting executive said. “He’s a little closer to being like a college pitcher, closer to having adult strength.”

Beckett was 19 at Draft time in 1999. So was Zack Wheeler, the No. 6 pick in the 2009 Draft who Hernandez tries to model his mechanics after. Jose Fernandez, who went No. 14 overall in 2011, turned 19 the month after he was drafted. He spent just one year in the Minors before winning National League Rookie of the Year honors in 2013.

“I think he’ll do what Jose Fernandez did, as long as he stays healthy,” the first executive said. “If he does that, I see him moving very quickly. If there’s such a thing as a lower-risk high school pitcher, he’s one of those guys.”

Where Hernandez will land in this year’s Draft remains to be seen. He’s still ostensibly in the Nationals' mix at No. 1, but we’ll have to wait to see which team at the top of the first round is willing to push past the demographic discomfort to take him. Hernandez, for one, seems to have a firm grasp on the intestinal fortitude it takes to select a high school right-hander early.

“It's a lot of pressure, but I think it's more pressure on the Nationals if they were to draft me because that's a risky pick, but I'm going to give it all I’ve got to prove [naysayers] wrong,” Hernandez said.

HS RHP first-round Draft picks in the bonus pool era

2024: None
2023: Noble Meyer (No. 10)
2022: Dylan Lesko (No. 15); Owen Murphy (No. 20)
2021: Jackson Jobe (No. 3); Andrew Painter (No. 13); Chase Petty (No. 26)
2020: Mick Abel (No. 15), Nick Bitsko (No. 24)
2019: Quinn Priester (No. 18); Blake Walston (No. 26)
2018: Carter Stewart (No. 8); Grayson Rodriguez (No. 11); Cole Winn (No. 15); Mason Danaburg (No. 27); JT Ginn (No. 30)
2017: Hunter Greene (No. 2); Shane Baz (No. 12)
2016: Ian Anderson (No. 3); Riley Pint (No. 4); Matt Manning (No. 9); Forrest Whitley (No. 17)
2015: Ashe Russell (No. 21); Beau Burrows (No. 22); Mike Nikorak (No. 27); Mike Soroka (No. 28)
2014: Tyler Kolek (No. 2); Touki Toussaint (No. 16); Grant Holmes (No. 22); Luis Ortiz (No. 30)
2013: Kohl Stewart (No. 4); Phil Bickford (No. 10); Huntery Harvey (No. 22)
2012: Nick Travieso (No. 14); Lucas Giolito (No. 16); Lucas Sims (No. 21); Ty Hensley (No. 30)

Top HS RHP first-round picks by bWAR

Zack Greinke (2002, No. 6): 77.4
Roy Halladay (1995, No. 17): 64.2
Dwight Gooden (1982, No. 5): 53.0
Adam Wainwright (2000, No. 29): 45.3
Zack Wheeler (2009, No. 6): 39.5
Josh Beckett (1999, No. 2): 35.7
Rick Rhoden (1971, No. 20): 35.3
Chris Carpenter (1993, No. 15): 34.2
Rick Sutcliffe (1974, No. 21): 33.9
Matt Cain (2002, No. 25): 29.0