Do you remember where the Houston Astros -- you know, the team that won the AL West for the seventh consecutive full season last year -- were at this point in 2024?
Through May 8, they were 12-24, a whopping 8 1/2 games out of first place. There were people arguing they should have traded Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker during the previous offseason. But then what happened? The Astros eventually woke up, and after falling to a high of 10 games behind Seattle on June 18, wound up winning the division by four games. It no longer mattered where they were at the beginning of May.
This is all to say: If your team is struggling right now, it doesn’t mean they’re out of it. Far from it. Here’s a look at eight teams who haven’t gotten off to the start they wanted but still have plenty of time to turn it around -- and have shown some small signs of being able to do so. (Note: We’re excluding the Braves, who got off to an 0-7 start but are already well on their way back, with FanGraphs playoff odds over 60%.)
Blue Jays (16-19)
Playoff odds: 28.7%
It is remarkable how much the tension around this team lessened when they signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to that extension. Can you imagine how high the temperature would be under everyone’s seat right now if they were under .500 and getting trade calls on Guerrero and Bo Bichette?
Getting that deal done has eased the pressure on a team that still feels, once again, like it’s underperforming. Guerrero is starting to come on, and they’ve gotten an impressively resurgent start from George Springer, but the acquisitions of Andrés Giménez and Anthony Santander have yet to pay dividends.
Those guys probably aren’t washed up just yet though, and you have to think the Blue Jays will be active in looking for some rotation help as well. More to the point: The Blue Jays, because of the Vlad Jr. extension, are likely buyers as the season goes along, rather than sellers.
Brewers (19-18)
Playoff odds: 21.7%
The two-time defending NL Central champs blew a lot of minds last year when they lost Corbin Burnes and manager Craig Counsell and somehow got better. That led many to think they’d be just fine despite waving goodbye to closer Devin Williams and star shortstop Willy Adames this year. While neither of those players is off to a good start with his new team, the Brewers are still sputtering a bit.
The bullpen hasn’t been the problem, and neither has the rotation, or at least the top of it. (Freddy Peralta, Jose Quintana and Chad Patrick all have ERAs under 3.00.) It’s the offense, which was their big surprise last year, that has sputtered. With Adames gone and Joey Ortiz moving over from third base in his place, the team has gotten very little production from either of those positions. Even Christian Yelich (.676 OPS) and William Contreras (.689) haven’t really gotten things going yet, and Jackson Chourio has just two walks in 161 plate appearances. Instead, it’s Sal Frelick, Rhys Hoskins and Brice Turang keeping the Brewers afloat.
If Milwaukee can get some pitchers back in the rotation (including the rehabbing Brandon Woodruff) and get Chourio to maybe take a pitch or two, there’s no reason it can’t get back in this race. They might not catch the Cubs. But this team has proven plenty resilient before and will be again.
Cardinals (18-19)
Playoff odds: 16.6%
The Cardinals, rather famously, didn’t add anyone in the offseason, so you can understand why expectations were pretty low for this team. But all told, the Cardinals, even if their record doesn’t quite show it, have been a little better than you might think. Nolan Arenado has been solid after his offseason trade fell through, Lars Nootbaar and (especially) Brendan Donovan look like All-Stars, and St. Louis is also getting breakthrough seasons from young players Victor Scott II and Matthew Liberatore.
It has been the Cardinals bullpen that keeps imploding on them; that’s the reason they currently have a losing record. The relief corps has been a little better of late, though, and if they can get that problem fixed, this has the look of a .500 team that, with a couple of breaks, could linger around the Wild Card race … if they don’t trade Arenado or closer Ryan Helsley before that happens.
Nationals (17-20)
Playoff odds: 1.3%
The Nats are certainly in the wrong division; if they played in, say, the NL Central, you wouldn’t have to squint that hard to see them as a second-place team. Alas, they don’t, and it's hard to argue they're quite a few steps behind the Mets, Phillies and (eventually) Braves.
But we have seen teams with loads of young talent coalesce earlier than anyone expected many times in the past, and it’s not impossible to imagine the Nats being a team like that. In CJ Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews, they’ve got three players under the age of 25 who are locked in for years to come, improving every day, and now they have MacKenzie Gore looking like a bona fide ace.
The bullpen has cost them a lot of games so far, and the rotation is asking a lot out of a couple of young, unproven pitchers, but this team is going to be a lot better in August than it is right now. No one is going to want to play them down the stretch.
Orioles (13-21)
Playoff odds: 11.7%
The Orioles, after getting swept out of the playoffs for the second straight year, have played some bad baseball out of the gate. One thing that hasn’t helped? A starting rotation that many believed would be a problem has stumbled to an even greater degree than anticipated, with a 5.75 ERA that ranks 28th in the Majors (more than a run behind the 27th-ranked Guardians).
But I’m still a believer. It’s not like all those young stud hitters suddenly forgot how to hit. There are fits and starts with any young player, and the recent fits will be replaced by some starts quite soon. There’s also rotation help coming. You’d like to see this front office operate with a little bit more urgency -- those young players don’t stay young forever -- but there’s a reason everyone has been raving about all the Orioles’ talent for the last half-decade. You didn’t imagine that. It will emerge soon. There’s too much of it not to.
Rangers (18-18)
Playoff odds: 44.9%
This was a sleeper American League pennant pick heading into the year, but they’ve fallen flat so far, to the point that they just dismissed offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker (replacing him with coaching novice Bret Boone), demoted offseason acquisition Jake Burger to Triple-A and waived longtime contributor Leody Taveras.
There have been some wildly underperforming veterans -- Marcus Semien and, especially, Joc Pederson, who is somehow hitting .114 -- and some inconsistency in young pitchers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. But all the pieces are still here. Corey Seager is still an MVP candidate; Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are all terrific starters; Wyatt Langford is still a budding star. The AL West has all sorts of twists and turns in front of it. The Rangers will be front and center for all of them.
Rays (16-19)
Playoff odds: 21.2%
It is surprising seeing so many young pitchers in a Rays rotation struggling. Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz all have ERAs of 3.86 or higher, and Rays starters as a whole rank just 16th in ERA. The nice thing about young pitchers, though, is that they do tend to get better – if they can stay healthy, at least – and there are reasons to be excited about all three of those arms.
The worry about the Rays, I’d argue, is the bats. The infield outside of Jonathan Aranda has been dreadful, and as fun as Chandler Simpson has been, he still has only one extra-base hit. (The Junior Caminero breakout hasn’t happened yet, either.) But there’s so much young talent here that, if it coalesces, they could make a run. Of note: Despite their losing record, they’ve outscored their opponents this year.
Twins (16-20)
Playoff odds: 38.3%
The Twins have come on a little bit of late. They're 9-5 since April 22, but they still keep running into the same problem they always do: injuries. At least Royce Lewis and Willi Castro are back now, but Minnesota still has Matt Wallner and promising rookie Luke Keaschall on the IL, while Carlos Correa (.611 OPS) has not seemed right despite being in the lineup all season.
The larger issue is that the rest of the division is playing so well; in the past, being five games under .500 this early wouldn’t drop you so low, but now, with the way the Tigers, Guardians and Royals are playing, you can plummet fast. It all comes down to whether those teams fall back a bit, and if the Twins can get keep their everyday lineup together. That might be wishful thinking. But in the past, it has been wishful thinking that has worked.