We are at the time of the MLB season in which we’re all looking at the standings every day -- multiple times a day, really. We only have a little more than a month left, after all. Every game on the schedule counts the same, but in late August and September, some games certainly feel like they count for more. The standings are the North Star: They track where everyone is going.
But they cannot, in fact, tell us everything. They can’t tell us the second-most important thing to the standings themselves: The schedule. The standings tell us where we’ve been, but they cannot tell us where we are going.
And what’s ahead, in many cases, is all that matters. So, as we head toward September, let’s take a look at three teams who are well-positioned moving forward, schedule-wise ... and those whose climb may be a little more uphill than it seems.
Note: Each team below is listed with its remaining strength of schedule (SoS), and MLB rank, per FanGraphs, entering Thursday.
3 contenders with an easier path
Yankees
Remaining SoS (rank): .482 (30th)
The Yankees have six games left with the Red Sox, following Thursday night’s series opener in the Bronx. Those matchups are always going to be an ordeal, but the happy news for the Yanks is all the games they have outside their division. They have three against the Nationals, three against a Twins team they always seem to dominate and, remarkably, seven games against the White Sox.
Following a Sunday night game at Boston on Sept. 14, the Yankees won’t face another team that currently has a winning record, playing their final 13 games against the Twins, Orioles and White Sox. A lot of Yankees fans are worried their team is going to collapse down the stretch, particularly in the season’s final two weeks. But it’s difficult to see a collapse happening while facing so many teams that are out of contention.
Cubs
Remaining SoS (rank): .483 (29th)
Now that this week’s five games against the Brewers are out of the way, it should be smooth sailin’ for the Cubbies. Only seven of their final 35 games are against teams that currently sport a winning record, and they’re all in the season’s final two weeks (Sept. 18-25): Four on the road in Cincinnati and three at home against the Mets.
Until then, it could be, quite frankly, a cakewalk. West Coast swings can be tough, but the Cubs have one of the more favorable versions possible -- three each against the Angels, Giants and Rockies -- and then they’re back at Wrigley Field for six against the Braves and Nationals. The Cubs make a quick trip to Georgia for three more with the Braves, but then they’re back home against the Rays before getting three in Pittsburgh. It will be Sept. 18 when the Cubs play another winning team … and they finish at home against the Cardinals, a team that entered Thursday at 15-25 since July 1. While catching the Brewers probably isn’t happening, this team should have every opportunity to set itself up to host a Wild Card Series.
Padres
Remaining SoS (rank): .484 (28th)
It should be said that this has more significance for the NL Wild Card race than the NL West race, as the Dodgers’ 25th-ranked SoS (.492) is roughly similar. (Of course, those two teams also go head-to-head for three games this weekend.)
I’m giving the slight edge to the Padres here because, even though they have three games against the indestructible Brewers, they have seven left with the Rockies (unlike the Dodgers, who just finished playing Colorado four times) and San Diego has three with the White Sox. I mean, the Padres could conceivably sweep all 10 of those games, you know? They might want to stack up every win they can before the final week: Their final homestand begins with those Brewers.
3 contenders with a harder path
Reds
Remaining SoS (rank): .519 (3rd)
It’s tough to find things to cheer up Mets fans of late, so let’s try this: The only team with any real chance to knock them out of the NL Wild Card race might have the toughest schedule left of any contender. The Reds are currently only a third of the way through a West Coast swing -- one that didn’t even follow an off-day -- that has them facing the D-backs and Dodgers next.
The Reds also have remaining series against the AL East-leading Blue Jays and NL Central-leading Brewers, as well as three other teams in playoff position (the Mets, Padres and Cubs). At least that Mets series -- which will be in Cincinnati -- provides a key opportunity to make up ground head to head. But if the Reds are going to make their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2013, they are very much going to have to earn it.
Red Sox
Remaining SoS (rank): .508 (5th)
We’ve already mentioned the six remaining games they have against the Yankees. But while the Yanks will be chilling against the Twins, Nationals and White Sox when the rivals are apart, the Red Sox run the gauntlet. They get two of the three AL division leaders in Toronto and Detroit, and not just that: That’s the two teams they play during the final week of the season -- all while the Yankees face opponents with losing records.
Another potential tricky spot for the Red Sox: They have six games left against the A’s -- who, while not a playoff contender, have been a winning team since the All-Star break, with one of the most exciting offenses in the sport right now. The time to face the A’s was in the first half of the season -- not when the Red Sox have to face them.
Phillies
Remaining SoS (rank): .504 (9th)
The Phillies are attempting to get back to the World Series and then win it, to make up for the years they’ve fallen short and before the clock strikes midnight for an older, veteran-laden roster. The two teams standing most firmly in their way on the NL side of a potential playoff bracket would appear to be the Brewers and Dodgers. The Phillies will have opportunities to face each of them before that point, facing both on the road in September.
If the Phillies are going to get a first-round postseason bye, they’re very much going to have to earn one. And don’t think any of those seven remaining games against the Mets are going to be simple, either. The trick is surviving until the final week, which features, at last, a break, with home series against the Marlins and the Twins.