This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpf’s Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PITTSBURGH -- Bubba Chandler’s debut Friday was a long time in the making. And he didn’t disappoint.
The top pitching prospect in the game threw four scoreless innings and got the save to close out the Pirates’ 9-0 win over the Rockies, striking out three batters in the process.
"It feels great,” Chandler said. “Kind of everything I've dreamed of. The past 22 years, it's just been -- 'I want to be on a Major League field.' And whether it was hitting or pitching, I just wanted to be in the game and show what God gave me, and I believe I did that."
Chandler gave a sneak peek at what he has to offer as a pitcher and what future years could look like with him toeing the rubber every five days. Of the 40 pitches he threw, the three most impactful were those strikeouts, each of which offers a glimpse into what makes him the top pitching prospect in the game.
PITCH 1: Fastball to Ryan Ritter, called strike three
The metrics: 99.9 mph, 2540 RPM of spin, 18.7 inches vertical break induced
What stands out: The obvious answer is Chandler dots this pitch, hitting Henry Davis’ target right off the plate. He’s able to receive it well and get a called third strike.
That’s also a ton of vertical break. Paul Skenes doesn’t get 18.7 inches of vertical movement on his fastball. No Pirate does, once you factor in gravity (Isaac Mattson comes a very close second at 18.5 inches). That’s going to help that pitch play up in the zone, giving the illusion of rise to the hitter.
High velocities are only going to make that illusion tougher to read. Going off of Baseball Savant data, here are the other pitchers who average over 98 mph on their four-seam fastball and get roughly the same amount of vertical movement. It’s not perfect, but these are some rough comparisons:
• Trevor Megill (99.1 mph, 19.1 IVB)
• Mason Montgomery (98.7 mph, 18.5 IVB)
• Ryne Stanek (98.5 mph, 18.4 IVB)
• Robert Suarez (98.5 mph, 18.3 IVB)
• Aroldis Chapman (98.4 mph, 18.6 IVB)
• Chase Burns (98.4 mph, 18.1 IVB)
There’s more to pitching than just velocity and movement (I don’t think anyone will mix up Montgomery and Chapman), but there are plenty of All-Stars in that group. Metrically speaking, this pitch has a chance to be elite.
PITCH 2: Fastball to Mickey Moniak, swinging strike three
The metrics: 100.4 mph, 2,471 RPM of spin, 17.6 inches vertical break induced
What stands out: There’s no need to revisit the analytics of the pitch, so let’s look at the intent.
This was a four-pitch sequence. First came a fastball high and out of the zone. Moniak took it for a ball, but his wrists broke and he was obviously enticed. Chandler came back with a changeup that Moniak swung through and then another fastball, this time fouled off. That second fastball missed Davis’ target and was a little too center-cut to get a whiff, but there was something there.
Ahead in the count 1-2, Chandler and Davis go back to the first pitch: fastball up. This time, Moniak bit and he swung through the heater. Davis and Chandler both celebrated as they headed back to the dugout, and justifiably so. That was a big pitch with a runner on third, and a reminder that even if Chandler doesn’t execute one pitch, he can still go right back to it.
PITCH 3: Changeup to Orlando Arcia, swinging strike three
The metrics: 93.2 mph, 2020 RPM of spin, 16.3 inches horizontal break
What stands out: A right-on-right changeup? Ok, having that level of confidence in that pitch is noteworthy.
“I think that might be his best pitch, honestly,” Davis said. “... I'm a big believer in 'Call what's hardest to hit.'”
This qualifies, and it starts with the sequence. Fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. Arcia saw everything Chandler had to offer, and that was the clincher, a biting offspeed pitch that bit down. The pitch before was a curveball just inside that Arcia was able to fly lazily foul, partially because he was a little ahead. For most hitters, seeing a pitch come in a similar spot and better velocity would be reason to guess it’s a fastball. Instead, the changeup went down instead of up, and Arcia whiffed. That’s stuff, sequencing and execution.