There have been a ton of big-name prospect callups to the big leagues so far this year. There are nine members of the Top 100 on big league rosters, though those there since the beginning of the season will graduate off shortly and one (Kumar Rocker) is on the injured list. Others have been up and are back down in Triple-A, waiting for another chance. Still more are hoping to hear that phone ring for the first time.
At the same time, there are a lot of exciting things going on at the lower levels of the Minors and, of course, the 2025 Draft is looming. This week's MLB Pipeline Inbox tries to check off all of those boxes, with a question about who might move the needle the most as a big league callup, one about someone making his full-season debut, a look at Complex League prospects and finally a query about Draft possibilities for a team picking in the top 10.
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Will the eventual debut of Andrew Painter be the most impactful prospect move of 2025? -- @blahbla92342524.bsky.social
We chose this question for the Mailbag on this week's MLB Pipeline Podcast -- go for the George Lombard Jr. interview, stay for the Mailbag answer! This was a good one because Jim Callis and I disagreed on this one, and who doesn't love a little healthy tension?
I agreed with the premise of the question, that Painter, currently No. 5 on our Top 100, will be the most impactful "prospect move" this season. (We hope we correctly defined prospect move as a player being called up to the big leagues ... seeing a guy make it to Double-A is exciting and all, but we didn't think that's what you meant by impactful.)
Here's my thinking:
Painter, who is pitching competitively for the first time since 2022 following Tommy John surgery, has been slowly ramping up this year. He was tremendous in the Arizona Fall League and was more than healthy enough to begin the year on a roster. But the Phillies slowed his progression, and he didn't make his debut until April 11, with Single-A Clearwater. He made four starts there and just made his first with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday. Philadelphia is monitoring his workload closely -- he's thrown 14 1/3 total innings over five starts to date -- because the hope is he has plenty of innings left, and plenty left in the tank, for late in the year, including October. The idea is for him to be ready, willing and able to contribute to a Phillies run in the postseason. Whenever they make the call, it could be like getting an elite-level arm in a huge trade to bolster the pitching staff.
Jim decided to look back rather than forward in terms of most impactful move. And the question was about all of 2025, so it's not a bad call. He felt the Red Sox's decision to put Kristian Campbell on the Opening Day roster will be seen as the best move of the year. Campbell is going to graduate from prospect status soon, and he's having a solid rookie season in Boston (.819 OPS so far), and Jim's thinking is that having a player in the lineup every day that helps a team potentially get to the playoffs carries more weight than a pitcher coming up in the middle of the season.
Bryce Rainer has looked very good so far in Single-A. Do you see him making a quick jump up the rankings if he continues this progression or something you guys might wait to see if he can maintain through the season? -- @ebodz13
We're in the process of doing our first "market corrections" for the Top 100, our first re-ordering based on what we've seen thus far in the 2025 season. Rainer's name was definitely discussed because of his start (.302/.397/.508) with Lakeland, but without giving away too much of the new order, we decided, at least for now, to leave him pretty much where he is (he's at No. 47 currently). It's been just 18 games and 63 at-bats, a little too small of a sample at the very start of a pro career to jump him up just yet. I'll say that if he continues this -- and I feel pretty confident he will -- he'll make a leap up next time we tweak things or at least when we do a full re-ranking of all of our lists after the Draft. The same holds true for the Pirates' Konnor Griffin, taken two spots ahead of Rainer in last year's Draft (No. 9 vs. No. 11) and is also in the Florida State League. His overall numbers aren't quite as impressive as Rainer's, but he's been showing off all five tools. We'll be watching both of them closely.
Potential complex league stock risers? -- @tschulmanreport
The Florida and Arizona Complex Leagues started last Saturday (May 3), and Sam Dykstra previewed that Opening Day with a list of 14 prospects to watch, which is a good list to draw from for this question. Some of these prospects can move quickly, like Justin Gonzales, currently No. 16 on the Red Sox Top 30 and one of the most intriguing prospects to start the year in Rookie ball before earning promotion to Single-A Salem. He’s a big 6-foot-4 corner outfield/first baseman type with a ton of raw power. He’s already been registering big exit velocities and he has the chance to be a very good all-around hitter who does a lot of damage after a .908 OPS in the Dominican Summer League last year, following signing with the Sox for $250,000 in January of 2024.
In Arizona, I'd keep an eye on Reds shortstop Tyson Lewis, No. 9 on their Top 30. There was a lot of debate when constructing that list whether to list him or Sammy Stafura first. We went with Stafura, a 2023 draftee, one spot ahead, but both are prep shortstops with tools the Reds decided to start in the ACL. Stafura hit so well out of the gate, he earned a pretty quick bump up to full-season Daytona last year, and I'm sure the Reds wouldn't mind the same thing happening for Lewis, a left-handed-hitting infielder who can do everything well on the diamond when he's locked in.
One deeper dive for you, using my Pittsburgh bias. The Pirates are very excited about the ceiling of No. 23 prospect Edward Florentino. He had a solid enough debut in the DSL last year after signing, but player development folks were raving about how he looked this spring (unoffically, had a 1.100 OPS in Spring Training and extended spring before the FCL started), and he's carried it over thus far by going 4-for-12 with a double and homer out of the gate. He could push his way to full-season Bradenton soon.
As a Reds fan, what realistic options will be there for their first pick? Please be a college bat close to helping soon. -- @mstuart142
The Reds pick ninth this year, and they certainly don't have any qualms with taking a college hitter with their first-round pick, having done so most recently in 2021 (Matt McLain), but also in 2018 (Jonathan India) and 2016 (Nick Senzel). We just posted our first mock draft, and Jim Callis did have the Reds taking Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette. He has a ton of power and athleticism, but it comes with some swing-and-miss concerns. Perhaps someone like North Carolina catcher Luke Stevenson could come into play, but the bigger buckets at that point might be college pitching (and they have done that the last two Drafts, something that looks like it's going to work out quite well) -- Oklahoma's Kyson Witherspoon is the one available in Jim's mock -- and keep an eye on someone like Tyler Bremner at Santa Barbara who looks like he's getting hot at the right time. Or maybe a high school infielder, the strength of the Draft, makes sense. If someone like Billy Carlson or Eli Willits makes it to them, any team should be interested, then there are names like Kayson Cunningham, JoJo Parker, Steele Hall and Daniel Pierce -- all in the top 20 of our Draft Top 150 list -- who could come into play.