BOSTON -- If you had to sum up Paul Skenes’ 2024 rookie campaign in one word, it may have been “splinker.” He has a mix of seven pitches that he will go to pretty consistently, but the hybrid sinker-splitter was one of the most deadly pitches in the game, combining velocity and drop in a way that has hardly been seen before.
Skenes’ sophomore campaign has picked up right where he left off, and on Friday at Fenway Park he climbed back to .500 for the first time since May 1 by tossing six strong innings in a 4-2 win over the Red Sox. He allowed two runs (one earned) and lowered his season ERA to a Major League-best 2.05.
That low ERA -- mixed in with his 10.1 K/9 and 0.95 WHIP over 167 innings -- has been a major selling point in a potential Cy Young campaign, even despite that 9-9 record. It was a tall task to try to improve on that 2024 season, but a case can be made that Skenes is doing it.
What’s interesting is that he has shown this growth largely without the hybrid pitch that took the league by storm last year. Of Skenes’ 95 pitches on Friday, just seven were labeled by Baseball Savant as splitters (their designation for the splinker now). Instead, he’s gone to a different offspeed pitch over the past few months: The changeup.
“He’s gone to it a lot, and I think he’s got a really good feel for it right now,” manager Don Kelly said. “He’s been able to generate a lot of swing and miss with it.”
Skenes has always had a changeup as a pro, but it was more of a tertiary offering for most of 2024. On Friday, it was Skenes’ second-most used pitch behind his four-seam fastball, and he used it in big spots. Facing two runners in scoring position with two outs in the fourth, Skenes finished off Nick Sogard with a changeup, which yielded a fly out to center. Sogard had another chance with two runners on in the second inning, but grounded out on a changeup. Skenes tidied up the fifth with a changeup to get Trevor Story and keep the Pirates in the ball game.
The Red Sox put three left-handers and a switch-hitter up against Skenes Friday, and it created opportunities for the Pirates’ ace to use his offspeed stuff. The Red Sox whiffed on four of their eight swings against the changeup Friday and went 0-for-4.
“I feel like there were times today when there were lefties in the box," Skenes said. “Traditionally, that's a pitch you throw to lefties. So times where I needed outs, when I'm facing a lefty ... I don't know, I just think the usage has gone up. It's not something we're trying to do. It's not by design. We're just kinda seeing opportunities for it and using it."
It may not be by design, but the data backs up the decision. Skenes’ changeup usage has increased every month, while his splitter usage has dropped each month.
"When you start throwing something more, something else has to get thrown less,” Skenes said. “The changeup versus the splitter, it gets good results in different ways. I guess it might be a philosophy thing or a game planning thing, but just leaning on that a bit more I think than last year."
It’s hard to argue with the results, either. Coming into play Friday, hitters were batting just .096 against his changeup, the second-lowest in the sport behind Jalen Beeks (min. 200 pitches). It also had the highest whiff rate of all of his pitches (44.9%) and the lowest wOBA and xwOBA (.103 and .133, respectively).
The Pirates needed that changeup to play Friday, especially since the Red Sox countered with Payton Tolle, a hard-throwing lefty who gave the offense fits all night. The rookie eventually wore down, and Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen hit back-to-back doubles in the sixth to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 advantage.
Skenes joked afterwards that he was the “seasoned veteran” compared to his pitching counterpart, but the game also served as a reminder that no matter who is on the hill for the opposition, Skenes almost always at least gives the Pirates a chance to win.
“Luckily, we have someone in Paul Skenes that can fill it up and has a track record,” McCutchen said. “He did his job and we were able to score some runs to give him an opportunity to give him the win."