This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- The Padres turn the calendar to May with 19 wins in the bank. The only other time they finished April with 19 wins? They won the 1998 National League pennant.
All things considered, it was a fantastic month for the Padres, who weathered serious injury concerns and finished April with consecutive victories over the division-rival Giants.
Still, there are some crucial questions they'll need to answer in May. Here's a look at four of them:
1. Can the Padres get healthy -- and continue to find their offense as they do?
The Padres finished April with an offense that ranks basically middle-of-the-pack. They owned a 103 wRC+ entering play Wednesday, indicating they’ve been about 3% better than league average at the plate. But break that number down, and the Padres took a circuitous route to get there.
Entering play on April 15, they ranked third in the Majors. Since then, they rank 27th. What changed? Well, duh. Everyone got hurt. Obviously their offense was going to struggle without four-ninths of its regular lineup (and serious questions about its depth).
Now, Luis Arraez and Jason Heyward are back. Jackson Merrill (right hamstring strain) should rejoin the team at some point on the upcoming road trip. Jake Cronenworth (right rib fracture) isn’t too far behind.
Are those returning players enough to maximize the Padres’ offense? Maybe. But it wouldn’t hurt if Xander Bogaerts could sustain his recent turnaround, or if the Padres could find a way to get more production from their bench. On that front, they’ll face some key decisions as they get healthier.
2. What is the Padres’ rotation plan, and how does Yu Darvish’s status affect it?
Temporarily, the Padres are using a four-man rotation. And why not? With the glut of off-days amid this current three-week stretch, their four starters are already getting extra rest. Keeping five starters -- and leaving six or seven days between starts -- was counterproductive.
But that’s going to change. The Padres will need a No. 5 starter next Tuesday in New York. They’ll presumably need to return to a full-time five-man rotation shortly after that. And come late May/early June, the schedule picks up significantly. In a 27-day span, San Diego will have just one off-day -- and 14 games against its three primary division rivals, the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks.
It sure seems like that’s the stretch of the schedule the Padres are building Darvish toward. His progression has been methodical, since he was sidelined in mid-March with right elbow inflammation. The Padres don’t see a need to rush the 38-year-old Darvish, who is currently ramping up the intensity of his bullpens. The next step is facing hitters, then appearing in rehab or simulated outings, where he'll build his pitch count.
Come early June, the Padres could reeeeeeeally use a healthy Yu Darvish.
3. Is there enough at catcher?
I’m not quite sure we got an answer in April. Offensively, it’s a no. Padres catchers combined to post a .572 OPS entering play Wednesday -- 26th in the Majors. Defensively, the advanced metrics aren’t particularly kind either. But …
How can you argue with the results the pitching staff has produced while working with Martín Maldonado and Elias Díaz? As anyone in the organization -- including every single pitcher -- will tell you, the two veteran catchers have played an integral part in the team's elite run prevention this year. Whether it’s strategizing, pitch-calling or game management -- largely intangible qualities -- Maldonado and Díaz have drawn rave reviews.
Which brings us to May. Can the Padres sustain this level of dominance on the mound? They’ve allowed the fewest runs in baseball. If that keeps up, they can absolutely stomach an OPS around .600 from their backstops. But if those catchers aren’t hitting, and the Padres’ run prevention drops off, even slightly, calls for a Luis Campusano callup will grow louder -- and further questions will emerge come trade season.
4. Can the Padres separate among playoff contenders?
The early June schedule is daunting. The May schedule is not. The Padres play series against the Pirates (twice), Rockies, Angels, Blue Jays and Marlins -- all of whom are below .500. (As are the Braves currently, but a series at Atlanta clearly does not fall into the same category.)
The Padres can’t expect to come through that June stretch unscathed. It’s going to be a grind. They’re going to lose games. They’re probably going to lose series. They’re going to fire some extra bullets and probably tax their pitching staff a bit, while trying to win important divisional games.
In May, all the Padres can do is put themselves in the best possible position for that stretch. They have several off-days and ample opportunity to cash in on weaker opposition. Even if they aren’t playing many games in the national spotlight, a critical month lies ahead.