Trying to determine which teams will have the biggest impact on the trade market can be a difficult task.
One year ago, the Rays were only a few games out of a Wild Card spot in the AL, looking to extend their streak of postseason appearances to six years. One month later, Tampa Bay went into sell mode, dealing away a number of players including Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin and Isaac Paredes.
The Blue Jays were fighting to stay in the race, sitting six games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. That quest essentially ended on July 26, when Toronto made the first of eight trades, moving players including Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Danny Jansen and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Teams currently on that postseason bubble could find themselves in a similar situation next month, which makes it so tough to gauge which players might become available between now and July 31.
One NL executive tabbed the Athletics, Orioles, Rockies, White Sox, Marlins, Nationals, Pirates and Angels as “the clubs who clearly need to sell,” though he predicts a number of other teams jumping into the sellers’ market as we get into mid-July.
“There are a lot of other clubs -- like Atlanta -- hovering just below .500 who will likely join the seller grouping as we get past the All-Star break,” the exec said.
The Orioles and Angels are far from surefire sellers at this point, though the other six clubs mentioned above figure to make players available soon (if they haven’t already).
The Marlins don’t have a ton of trade chips, as the vast majority of Miami’s roster is made up of young, controllable and relatively inexpensive players. But if they make former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara available -- especially now that he’s looking like his old self after a tough return from elbow surgery -- the Marlins may have the most prized asset of trade season.
“Aces don’t become available often, particularly those with two years of club control,” an AL executive said. “If Alcantara continues to throw the way he has lately, the Marlins should be able to get a big return for him.”
The Rockies have the worst record in the league, so it’s no surprise that most of their players aren’t highly coveted by others. But a few executives pointed to three Colorado players -- third baseman Ryan McMahon and relievers Jake Bird and Seth Halvorsen -- as trade chips that could net good returns for GM Bill Schmidt.
“They could be very interesting if [Schmidt] decides to really open things up,” an NL exec said. “That’s not what he’s typically done at the Deadline, so I don’t know if it’s something we can expect. But they have pieces that can help teams.”
The White Sox are in a similar position, with some controllable relievers (Cam Booser, Steven Wilson) in their thirties, a couple of rental starters (Aaron Civale, Adrian Houser) and an enigmatic center fielder (Luis Robert Jr.) whose reputation continues to overshadow his recent performance.
The Pirates (Andrew Heaney, David Bednar, Dennis Santana, Isiah Kiner-Falefa), Nationals (Nathaniel Lowe, Kyle Finnegan, Amed Rosario), Athletics (Miguel Andujar, Luis Urías) and Marlins (Jesús Sánchez, Edward Cabrera) have some trade chips that will draw interest, but none have the same impact players to dangle as the Orioles, who executives believe to be the team that can have the biggest impact on the market.
“I still find it hard to believe that they are going to decide to be an official ‘seller’ until late July,” an NL executive said. “I would be shocked if they sell unless they have a long losing streak in the near future. They have an extremely talented roster and they certainly aren’t out of it at this point.”
Should the Orioles decide to sell, they have a number of expiring contracts that could help determine the postseason picture if they are moved.
Among Baltimore’s potential trade candidates are Ryan O'Hearn, who is having an All-Star-caliber season and can play multiple positions, and outfielders Cedric Mullins and Ramón Laureano. Starters Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton (4-0, 2.90 ERA in six starts since rejoining the rotation) -- who could help a number of pitching staffs -- are also headed for free agency.
“It’s not very close,” said another NL executive when asked which team might prove to be the most influential seller. “The Orioles players on expiring contracts represent a better collection of talent than the other current likely sellers.”