How the Trade Deadline could impact Hot Stove season

The events of a wild Trade Deadline will surely impact this year’s playoff races, but that’s only part of the story.

From the blockbuster deals that went down to the notable trade candidates who weren't dealt, the decisions made this summer are sure to echo past the final out of the World Series, carrying into Hot Stove season.

Here’s a look at some of the key offseason questions and storylines that could be shaped by what happened -- and didn't -- before the Deadline on July 31.

All stats below are through Tuesday.

Can these sellers retool quickly?

A number of this year’s selling clubs can look to the Blue Jays as an example of how quickly things can turn around. After selling at the Deadline in 2024 and finishing in last place, Toronto currently sits atop the American League East.

Another AL East team, the Orioles, is perhaps the most likely of the 2025 sellers to follow in the Blue Jays’ footsteps next year, though addressing a rotation that ranks 28th in ERA (4.90) will be imperative. Getting Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells back from injuries should help, but the Orioles would be wise to seek a frontline-caliber arm to fill the hole left by Corbin Burnes when he departed as a free agent last offseason.

The Giants and D-backs are also candidates to flip the script in a hurry after selling at this year’s Deadline. The Cardinals are, too, provided they’re more active in their first offseason under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom than they were last winter.

We’ll also throw the Braves into this category even though they didn't sell. It will be interesting to see if Atlanta rests on its laurels -- hoping that better health is enough to propel the team back into contention after a thoroughly disappointing campaign -- or looks to shake things up this offseason.

Are these reserved buyers ready to get aggressive?

The Cubs and Tigers were buyers this year, but neither was particularly aggressive in doing so, continuing to operate with the same restraint they showed last offseason and casting further doubt about their willingness to go “all in” even though they are clearly ready to win now.

This will be a pivotal offseason for both clubs. The Cubs not only have to navigate Kyle Tucker’s free agency but also remain in need of a starting pitcher after failing to land an impact arm at the Deadline. The Tigers, meanwhile, control ace Tarik Skubal for only one more season after 2025 and will have a number of holes to fill heading into ’26.

Did the Padres just acquire their future ace?

Padres general manager A.J. Preller lived up to his reputation as one of baseball’s boldest executives at this year’s Deadline, making a flurry of moves headlined by the club’s acquisition of Mason Miller.

The flamethrowing right-hander has given San Diego’s bullpen another electric arm, though it remains to be seen how long he’ll actually stay there. No, Miller isn’t going anywhere -- he’s controllable through 2029 -- but there have been rumblings that the Padres could consider transitioning him back to the rotation in the future. With Dylan Cease, Michael King and the newly acquired Nestor Cortes all nearing free agency, how the Friars decide to proceed with Miller could have a major impact on their approach to the starting pitching market this offseason.

How will the Mariners follow up their bold Deadline?

While the Padres were one of the National League’s most aggressive buyers, the Mariners followed suit in the AL, adding two badly needed bats in Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. Though Suárez has slumped since the trade, Seattle won 10 of 11 to tie the Astros for the AL West lead going into Wednesday.

Even if they don’t go all the way this year, the Mariners have the pieces in place to contend for the franchise’s first World Series title in 2026. However, they need to keep their foot on the gas this offseason, especially with Suárez and Naylor both set for free agency. Will they actually do it? That much is unclear after they stayed largely quiet last offseason.

Twins starters on the trade block?

No team traded away more talent from its big league roster at this year’s Deadline than the Twins, who shipped out (deep breath) shortstop Carlos Correa; closer Jhoan Duran; relievers Griffin Jax, Danny Coulombe, Louis Varland and Brock Stewart; center fielder Harrison Bader; first baseman Ty France; and utility man Willi Castro.

Despite significant interest, they refrained from dealing All-Star starter Joe Ryan, but that doesn’t mean the righty won’t be shopped again in the offseason. The Twins have already committed to a rebuild and are unlikely to contend again before Ryan can become a free agent at the end of 2027, by which point he will be 31 years old. Fellow starter Pablo López, whose four-year, $73.5 million deal runs through 2027, could be put on the trade block as well, assuming he makes it back healthy from the teres major muscle strain that has kept him out since June.

Are the Marlins ready to make a push?

The Marlins have taken a big step forward this season, with Kyle Stowers emerging as an All-Star, Eury Pérez making a strong return from Tommy John surgery and several other players looking like potential building blocks as well. The club even reached the .500 mark on Aug. 3 before its recent slide.

Miami fielded offers for Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera prior to the Deadline but ultimately didn’t move either pitcher. The Marlins could dangle both on the trade market again this offseason, but will they? Or will they look to add as they move to the next phase of their rebuild?

What’s next for the Nationals?

The first order of business for the Nationals this offseason? Finding new leadership after parting ways with longtime president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez in July. Whoever takes the helm will face the challenge of charting a course for a franchise that has struggled to recapture the glory of its 2019 World Series title.

Washington has a pair of All-Star position players to build around in James Wood and CJ Abrams but otherwise does not seem particularly close to contending. As a result, it might make sense to revisit trade talks for pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has two years of club control remaining after 2025.

Who can get a qualifying offer and who can’t?

Free agents must have spent the entire previous season with a club to receive a qualifying offer -- a one-year deal that, if turned down, attaches the player to Draft-pick compensation should they sign elsewhere.

Accordingly, pending free agents who were traded -- including Suárez, Naylor, starter Merrill Kelly (traded to Rangers) and closer Ryan Helsley (traded to Mets) -- will not be eligible to get a QO this offseason. Meanwhile, there are some upcoming free agents who found themselves involved in trade rumblings before the Deadline but weren’t moved, which means they'll still be eligible to receive a QO (provided they haven't received one before). The Padres’ Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez and the D-backs’ Zac Gallen are the most likely QO candidates among the players in this group.