High school seasons are wrapping up, Division I college regional play is about to get started, and MLB Pipeline has a new, and expanded Draft rankings. We must be getting close to the 2025 Draft!
With just over six weeks before the Nationals kick things off in Atlanta by taking the No. 1 pick this year, we’ve re-ordered our rankings and built it out to a new Top 200 list. There’s still a long way to go before teams have to decide who to take, and we’ll have one more expansion/update, out to 250, before we get to Draft night on Sunday, July 13. But this list reflects the latest in terms of who the industry thinks are the top 200 talents (think top seven rounds, talent-wise, as we do not take things like signability into account for these rankings).
We’ll continue to provide projections of the top of the Draft in mock drafts between now and Draft day as we get more information on who might go to which team. For now, at least in terms of talent, there is a group coalescing at the top, with some consensus.
Top 10:
1. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS, Okla.
2. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS, Calif.
3. Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State
4. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
5. Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS, Okla.
6. Aiva Arquette, 2B, Oregon State
7. Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS, Calif.
8. Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
9. Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
10. JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS, Miss.
Complete list »
The names at the top are basically the same that were in the conversation when the Top 150 came out. The big move is from Anderson, the LSU lefty, who vaulted from No. 9 on that list up to No. 3 to become the top college arm in a crowded group (more on that in a bit).
Depending on who you talk to, the end of the top 10 is a bit malleable, with the players in the 11-15 range: college hitters Marek Houston (No. 12) and Jace LaViolette (No. 15), high school infielders (still the strength of the class) Kayson Cunningham (No. 11) and Steele Hall (No. 13) and college arm Tyler Bremner (No. 14) -- all hovering in range to go in the top third of the first round.
As we have in the past, we wanted to see what the decision-makers thought about this top group, so we sent out a survey and a total of 22 higher-level members of the scouting industry responded, from national cross-checkers to scouting directors and general managers.
It helped confirm our thoughts that Holliday deserved to stay in the top spot, where we had him when we launched the Top 150. He got 10 first-place votes, twice as many as any other prospect. Those who voted for him in the top spot pointed to his overall tools, chance for impact/star potential and, as the son of Matt/brother of Jackson, the baseball pedigree.
“I thought the top three are pretty tightly clustered,” said one evaluator who voted Holliday, Arnold, Willits in the top three spots. “Holliday offers the best chance for impact bat at power. His defense has improved this spring compared to last summer.”
“Ethan's trajectory continues to head in the right direction with a lot of indicators in the frame, bloodlines, and consistent progress being strong indicators,” another scout said.
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A third pointed to his track record of being a high-profile guy, saying, “He’s been a top prep player for several years. He’s consistently the best player on the field and has all the tools.”
Perhaps a little surprising is that the player who got the second-highest total of top votes was Willits, also the son of a former big leaguer (Reggie). He received five first-place votes. One general manager pointed to his tools, projection, instincts and age -- as a reclassified player, he’s just 17 at the Draft -- as reasons for voting him in the top spot. Others concurred.
“I feel like Willits has both good floor from his contact, defense, and speed, plus upside due to age and physical development,” a scouting director responded.
Another scouting director said: “Best overall player with tools, performance and elite makeup while being young.”
High school right-handed pitching is always considered the riskiest demographic, but there were still four people who put Seth Hernandez in that top spot, even if they were well aware of that risk, pointing to his frontline starter potential.
“He has the highest ceiling, though the demographic likely knocks him down a few rungs on the ladder,” a general manager said.
“He’s the most talented player in the class, profile be damned,” a scouting director said.
Arnold and Arquette also received first-place votes. What do the overall standings look like? Using a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system, the top 10 looks like this:
Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (Okla.): 173
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (Calif.): 153
Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State: 147
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (Okla.): 144
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State: 139
Aiva Arquette, 2B, Oregon State: 139
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee: 97
Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma: 85
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (Calif.): 72
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest: 26
Respondents were allowed to put others in their top 10 and several did get votes, in order of point total: Parker, Hall, LaViolette, Ike Irish, Bremner, Pierce.
There are five college arms in the top 10 and it’s an area without a ton of consensus, so we also asked scouts their opinion on the best college arm in the class. Some of the responses came with “it’s close” or “tough call” additions, but the voting turned out like this (21 responses):
Anderson: 10
Arnold: 6
Doyle: 4
Witherspoon: 1
Finally, we asked the scouts to grade the Draft. While we’ve been hearing from scouts all spring that they are far from bullish on this class, two evaluators did give it a 60 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and two hung an above-average 55 on it. The average grade came out to 45.7, fringe-average overall.