In three weeks, we will be previewing playoff games. We’re that close! It is telling how close all these races are, and how much playoff seeding there is left to be decided, that the standings differ so much from our power rankings: The Nos. 1 and 2 seeds seem to be head and shoulders ahead of the rest of baseball, but everyone else is tightly compressed. There’s so much left to be decided; three weeks is soon, and yet still very far away.
These rankings, as always, are compiled from MLB.com contributors whose names you can find at the bottom of this (and every) piece, but the words are mine. If you dislike the rankings, yell at all of us. But if you dislike the words, feel free to yell at me.
1. Brewers (previously: 1)
Their win on Sunday -- and their battering of uber-prospect Bubba Chandler -- got them to the high-water mark for the season at 34 games over .500. It’s not just the high-water mark for the season: It’s the high-water mark in franchise history. They merely need to go 11-7 to win 100 games for the first time.
2. Phillies (previously: 2)
Can we lock in the Phillies to the No. 2 spot in the NL? They’re 5 1/2 games behind the Brewers but four games ahead of the Dodgers, with 13 of their final 19 games at home. It’s not quite “just make sure your rotation is lined up” mode … but it’s close.
3. Blue Jays (previously: 5)
As the AL East race gets closer and closer -- in large part because of the Jays’ bullpen struggles -- Toronto’s rotation has had more and more pressure on it. It has definitely been embraced by a rotation mostly stacked with veterans. It’s a downright throwback attitude. “The reality is that we have to go 100 pitches, especially this last month,” Kevin Gausman said. “We’ve taxed our bullpen enough. Now, we just need to get to that 100-pitch mark consistently. With the guys that we have, we can do that. We feel pretty confident that we can give one, maybe two [relievers] the night off each night.”
4. Cubs (previously: 6)
Sammy Sosa and Derrek Lee were Cubs stars right before the Cubs finally won their World Series, so they perhaps don’t have the inner-circle adoration that members of that 2016 team did. But they were both very much deservingly inducted into the Cubs Hall of Fame on Sunday. It was particularly overdue for Sosa, who hasn’t always had the best relationship with the team since retiring, but to judge from the fans at Wrigley this weekend, that now all seems like water very much under the bridge.
5. Tigers (previously: 3)
Is it too early to start counting magic numbers? Yeah, probably. But if you’re into it anyway, the Tigers’ magic number to win the AL Central is now 11: That’s the lowest magic number for anyone to clinch a division, thanks to their 8 1/2-game lead.
6. Yankees (previously: 8)
Considering how terrible that series went back in July, when the Blue Jays took first place from the Yankees and never gave it back, the Yanks had to feel good about winning their series against the Jays in the Bronx this weekend. Toronto’s lead is now down to two games, but remember, because the Jays won the season series, that might as well be three games since they hold that tiebreaker.
7. Dodgers (previously: 4)
Leave it to a couple of likely future Hall of Famers to pull the Dodgers out of a very ugly skid. Sunday featured two homers from Shohei Ohtani -- he passed Steve Garvey on the all-time home run list, for what it’s worth -- and the 222nd career victory for Clayton Kershaw, who had a season-high eight strikeouts. He really may end up a playoff starter, you know.
8. Padres (previously: 7)
Manny Machado came into Sunday’s game in the midst of a 7-for-51 skid, with only one extra-base hit in his last 13 games. But you knew he was going to snap out of it, and soon, and his 2-for-4 day with a homer on Sunday sure had the look of a guy who’s about to start carrying his team down the stretch. We have certainly seen it before from him.
9. Red Sox (previously: 9)
If you are hoping for a race in the AL Wild Card race, you need to root against the Red Sox. The Sox did their part in Arizona this weekend to keep your hopes alive, and, until their comeback win Sunday, they had looked weirdly outmatched for the last week, being outscored 23-7 during their losing streak. Their lineup, without Roman Anthony (for the rest of the regular season), suddenly looks awfully thin.
10. Astros (previously: 10)
The situation with Framber Valdez, who raised some eyebrows last week after he struck his catcher in the chest with a crossed-up pitch, seems to be mostly solved, or at least calmed down, just in time for Valdez to pitch much better against the Rangers on Sunday, albeit in a loss. He’s now fifth in innings in baseball, just 3 2/3 innings behind leader Tarik Skubal.
11. Mets (previously: 11)
We’re not exactly quite ready to call them the new Generation K just yet, but it should be said that it is kind of remarkable how the Mets rotation, right in the middle of a pennant chase, has been stabilized, even elevated, by rookies. Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong look like they’re going to be in this rotation not only for the long haul … but quite possibly October.
12. Mariners (previously: 11)
Cal Raleigh’s heroics -- he’s just one short of Mickey Mantle’s record of 54 homers by a switch-hitter -- has distracted from how great Julio Rodríguez has been. Since July 11, J-Rod has a .652 slugging percentage, 19 homers and 45 RBIs in 50 games, all three of which are among the top five in all of baseball in that time.
13. Royals (previously: 13)
Bobby Witt Jr. is expected to be back this week, probably early this week, after missing two games with back spasms. Suffice it to say, the Royals desperately need him back, even with recent upticks from Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, who’s second in the Majors in RBIs since July 1. But their series against Cleveland looms huge in the Wild Card race, and not having their MVP candidate could prove fatal at the worst possible time.
14. Rangers (previously: 14)
It is remarkable that the Rangers are still hanging around the playoff chase considering how many injuries they have, and how much those injuries have decimated their lineup. On Saturday and Sunday, in huge games against the Astros, they had only one player with an OPS over the league average (Wyatt Langford). They still split those games.
15. Giants (previously: 19)
The Giants had a rough weekend in St. Louis, putting their already relatively bleak playoff odds even further in doubt. But they’ve got to be happy with how Rafael Devers has come along. After his slow start, he has been homering like crazy; he now has more homers (16) than he had in Boston this year (15), in two fewer games. If he had been with the Giants all season, those 31 homers would be the most for the Giants since Barry Bonds hit 45 in 2004.
16. Diamondbacks (previously: 17)
Corbin Carroll leads the Majors in extra-base hits this year, and as hot as he has been, he may stay atop that leaderboard the rest of the season. Another milestone he has a chance for? He needs just six steals the rest of the way to notch the first 30-30 season in Diamondbacks history.
17. Rays (previously: 20)
The excitement of the Rays’ winning streak, which had gotten them back into the AL Wild Card race, imploded this weekend with three home losses at the hands of the Guardians, whom they’d beaten on Thursday and who just passed the Rays in the standings. The schedule is brutal the rest of the way too. The Rays only have seven more home games, but they’re against the Blue Jays and the Red Sox; the other 12 road games may well bury them.
18. Guardians (previously: 16)
The Guardians, thanks to their three wins in Tampa this weekend, have put themselves in a position to have their biggest series of the season against the Royals starting Monday. Considering how few games are left, the series could essentially be an elimination matchup in the Wild Card race.
19. Reds (previously: 15)
The Reds’ win over the Mets on Sunday was pivotal in many ways, not least of which because it got the Reds back over .500 after three losses in a row. But another potential key one: It secured the tiebreaker over the Mets. If they’re going to have any chance to catch up with them, the Reds are going to very much need that tiebreaker.
20. Cardinals (previously: 18)
There might have been no player in all of baseball who needed a walk-off hit more than Jordan Walker when he stepped to the plate in the ninth inning against the Giants on Saturday. He had been 0-for-his-previous-25 and had both manager Oliver Marmol and hitting coach Brant Brown actively criticizing his approach in the media that week. His two-run double ended up winning the game. “It was a pretty surreal feeling, because it has been a while since I had a hit,” Walker said. “So, to come through right there after the whole team had rallied there off a really good reliever, it was super sick, and it was some great team energy.” Quietly, by the way: The Cardinals are back to .500.
21. Orioles (previously: 25)
This year hasn’t gone the way the Orioles wanted, obviously, but they sure did have a beautiful night on Saturday. Jackson Holliday’s homer off Yoshinobu Yamamoto ended a no-hitter with two outs in the ninth and led to a walk-off win, and it all happened on a night when Cal Ripken Jr. was back and honored at a celebration of the 30th anniversary of his breaking of Lou Gehrig’s consecutive games record. His son Ryan, who was two years old when Cal broke the record, was there to throw out the first pitch. “I still can’t believe that’s 30 years ago. My dad hates me saying it. I go, ‘Hey, you’re 65,’” Ryan said. “It’s crazy to think. I’m 32. It’s in the blink of an eye. It’s crazy how fast life can move.”
22. A’s (previously: 22)
Nick Kurtz, it seems pretty clear now, is going to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, but here’s a question: Is he going to finish in the top five in MVP voting? In addition to everything else he’s doing, he is actually getting on base at a near-.500 clip since July 10, which is just absurd. How many guys, if you were starting a franchise from scratch, would you pick above him right now?
23. Braves (previously: 23)
Things have gotten bad enough with the Braves bullpen that infielder Vidal Bruján is getting more and more time on the mound. The guy who stopped Kyle Schwarber from hitting his fifth homer of the game a week-and-a-half ago got on the mound again on Sunday, giving up two runs in the brutal 18-2 loss to the Mariners. His career ERA is now 27.00; batters have a career .500 batting average against him.
24. Marlins (previously: 21)
That little Marlins playoff boomlet that briefly popped up post-All-Star break has long since popped, but this team is going to start looking more like itself this week: Three key players -- Kyle Stowers, Janson Junk and Ryan Weathers -- will be activated from the injured list this week.
25. Angels (previously: 24)
Mike Trout’s long, protracted path to finally getting his 400th homer -- which still hasn’t happened -- is putting a spotlight on what could end up being the longest homerless streak of his career. After not homering again on Sunday, he has gone 25 games without homering. A decade ago, in 2015, he went 27.
26. Twins (previously: 26)
It’s a little rough on the big league roster right now, so I understand why MLB.com’s Matthew Leach would profile Double-A outfielder Kala'i Rosario, who has had a magical year. He hit two homers in a game last week to get him to 25 homers and 25 steals in 119 games, in a season where he already has hit for the cycle. And unlike the big league club, his Double-A team is about to make the playoffs.
27. Pirates (previously: 27)
The excitement for Bubba Chandler, Pipeline’s No. 1 overall pitching prospect, had gone 2-0 with a save in his first three outings, all relief appearances. Thus, it made sense that the Pirates would give him his first start on Sunday. It, uh, did not go well: He gave up nine runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Brewers, none of which came off of homers, which is either good or bad, depending on your perspective. Chandler went from having a 2.25 ERA to a 7.36 ERA in one game, which is actually pretty difficult to do.
28. Nationals (previously: 28)
There’s nothing the Nationals would like to see more than young pitchers stepping up and securing their place in the rotation both present and future, which was why Brad Lord’s outing on Saturday was so satisfying. He was terrific against the Cubs, giving up just one run on two hits across 5 2/3 innings, after two very difficult starts since returning to the rotation. That’s what the Nats have been waiting for. “He was just attacking the strike zone,” interim manager Miguel Cairo said. “He mixed it up really good and threw strikes when he needed to throw strikes. He threw the breaking pitch when he needed to throw the breaking pitch. So he kept them out of balance. It was nice to see him come back and be himself.”
29. White Sox (previously: 29)
The White Sox’s five-game win streak this week, which ended this weekend, gave them a possibility to avoid losing 100 games for the third straight season, the first time that would have ever happened in franchise history. If they can only go 7-11 the rest of the way, they’ll end up with “just” 99 losses.
30. Rockies (previously: 30)
Fun factoid that got lost in the wake of that wild Orioles comeback against the Dodgers, not only ending Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s no-hitter but also winning the game: Fifteen minutes before Jackson Holliday’s homer in that game, his brother Ethan hit his second professional home run for the Fresno Grizzlies. One suspects that will not be the last time those two homer in close proximity to each other.
Voters: Nathalie Alonso, Jason Catania, Mark Feinsand, Daniel Feldman, Doug Gausepohl, Will Leitch, Travis Miller, Arturo Pardavila, Andrew Simon, David Venn.