Time sure flies, doesn’t it?
We’re already a month into the 2025 season and, while it’s still early, plenty of important developments have taken place with the playoff picture. What’s made the early playoff outlook fascinating is the difference between the two leagues, with more clarity about who the good teams are in the National League, while there’s much more uncertainty with their American League counterparts.
With this in mind, here’s what the playoff matchups would look like if the season ended today.
(Here's a refresher on playoff tiebreakers, which were used to determine this postseason outlook)
American League
Byes: Tigers (1) and Yankees (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Red Sox (6) at Mariners (3)
Astros (5) at Guardians (4)
Just missed: Rangers (half a game out of WC spot)
The Tigers have built on their successful 2024 season, which saw them make the playoffs as a Wild Card team for the first time since 2014. Much like last season, pitching has been the name of Detroit’s game: Its 2.97 ERA trails only the Mets and Padres. But the Tigers have also seen massive offensive improvements, with their hitters going from a .685 OPS in 2024 (seventh-worst) to .720 this season (12th-best).
As it usually is, the AL East is tracking to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. The Yankees hold the advantage for now at 18-12, but they're only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Red Sox, who figure to battle with New York all season long for the AL East title.
It’s early, but this looks like a year where we could see double-digit American League teams competing for a playoff spot. Only the Orioles and White Sox are more than five games back of a playoff spot. The season is young enough, but with no obvious frontrunner in this league, there could be a hypercompetitive playoff race.
Division Series matchups
Astros (5) or Guardians (4) at Tigers (1)
Red Sox (6) or Mariners (3) at Yankees (2)
The Tigers haven’t won the AL Central since 2014 and it’s been even longer since they led the league in wins -- Detroit led the Majors with 98 wins in the 1987 season. With a slim lead over the Guardians (1 1/2 games) and plenty of time left in the season, Detroit has plenty of work to do, but the Tigers have been playing at a high rate for a while. Since Aug. 11 last year, Detroit's 49 wins only trail the Dodgers' 50 victories.
As mentioned earlier, the Tigers will likely have plenty of competition for the playoff race and top record in the league. Unlike their National League counterparts, the American League looks like it’s more wide open than it’s been in years. Again, we’re only a month into the season, but there hasn’t been an obvious team that has stood out to profile as a surefire playoff lock.
National League
Byes: Mets (1) and Dodgers (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Reds (6) at Cubs (3)
Padres (5) at Giants (4)
Just missed: Phillies (zero games out of WC spot -- Reds hold tiebreaker advantage), D-backs (1.0 game out)
In a competitive NL field, the Mets currently stand at the top at 21-9. After a run to last year’s NLCS and a busy offseason that saw New York sign Juan Soto, the Mets have risen to their lofty expectations in the early going. The Mets are excelling on both sides of the ball, but their pitching is leading the way with an MLB-leading 2.60 ERA and 6.1 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement.
The last time the Mets led the NL in wins? The 2006 season, when New York lost the NLCS in seven games to the Cardinals (sorry to bring that up, Mets fans).
There’s plenty of competition behind the Mets. The Dodgers, Giants and Padres all boast a winning percentage north of 60 percent, while the Cubs, Reds and Phillies are all within 4 1/2 games of the top NL spot. While there’s less certainty in the American League about which teams are truly good, it’s clear that the senior circuit has plenty of teams that could finish with the top record.
Division Series matchups
Padres (5) or Giants (4) at Mets (1)
Reds (6) or Cubs (3) at Dodgers (2)
What makes the NL field so interesting this year is the dynamics playing out in the NL West. Apart from the 4-25 Rockies, the remaining four NL West teams look like legitimate options to reach the playoffs. Of course, the Dodgers are all but given to make the postseason, but the Giants, Padres and D-backs are viable playoff options and could even threaten to win the division.
Apart from the Giants, the one surprise NL team so far looks to be the Reds, who own baseball’s fourth-best run differential (+43 runs). As great as the Cubs have looked at times, the Reds have built a solid foundation under new manager Terry Francona and could compete for a playoff spot.
Who’s out from last year?
Braves, Brewers, Orioles, Phillies, Royals
Perhaps no team has underperformed its expectations as much as the Orioles. After consecutive playoff appearances and 90-plus-win seasons, the Orioles find themselves at 11-18 with playoff odds below 20 percent.
The Braves have turned their season around after losing the first seven games. Since that point, Atlanta is 14-8 and has won eight of its last 10 games. The Braves’ poor start might have been enough to surmount a comeback to win the NL East, but they’re very much in play for a Wild Card spot right now.
Who’s new this year?
Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Red Sox, Reds
After finishing at .500 or below in seven of the last eight seasons, the Giants are a true surprise team and have seemingly turned a corner in their first year under president of baseball operations Buster Posey. Logan Webb is striking out more hitters than ever, the Giants' bullpen has been excellent, and the likes of Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman have helped the offense score runs at an above-average clip.
The Reds also qualify as a surprise team and could realistically compete for both a Wild Card spot and potentially the NL Central division title.