The Nationals still are evaluating 7-8 players for the No. 1 overall pick, a group that consists of most of the consensus upper-tier of talent: two high school shortstops (Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits), the best of the college arms (lefties Kade Anderson of Louisiana State, Jamie Arnold of Florida State and Liam Doyle of Tennessee; righty Kyson Witherspoon of Oklahoma), as well as the top prep pitcher (right-hander Seth Hernandez) and college position player (Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette).
Shortstop Billy Carlson, Hernandez's teammate at Corona (Calif.) HS, appears to be the lone top-shelf option that Washington isn't considering. That large pool of candidates gives Washington more leverage in negotiations with individual players, but it's not posturing -- it reflects that no one has truly separated himself in what's considered a shallower talent pool than usual.
The Draft begins July 13 during the All-Star Week festivities in Atlanta, so the Nationals still have a month to make up their mind. Until they narrow their field and settle on someone, the clubs picking behind them are uncertain who might be available with their choices.
The player with the most helium at the top of the Draft is Auburn outfielder/catcher Ike Irish, whom some teams consider the best all-around hitter in the college class. There's talk that he could fit somewhere in the first seven picks on a discount deal, perhaps as high as No. 2 to the Angels, and he also might not have to take a haircut to fit in the first 10 selections.
The Men's College World Series starts Friday and features four lock first-rounders in Anderson, Arquette, Arizona outfielder Brendan Summerhill and Arkansas shortstop Wehiwa Aloy. We've also included Coastal Carolina catcher Caden Bodine and Louisville right-hander Patrick Forbes in our projected first round below. The Razorbacks trio of left-hander Zach Root, right-hander Gage Wood and outfielder Charles Davalan, and LSU righty Anthony Eyanson, also will have the opportunity to try to push their way into the first or supplemental first round in Omaha.
This week, we're expanding our predictions to cover the entire supplemental first round. Detailed scouting reports, grades and video for all players mentioned below can be found with MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 200 list. We'll revamp our rankings and expand to a Top 250 after the Draft Combine next week.
More on the Draft Combine:
1. Nationals: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)
Holliday and Anderson look like the leading contenders to go No. 1 overall. Willits and Hernandez are perhaps the next in line.
2. Angels: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 3)
Anderson has established himself as the best college arm available, and that's the demographic that the Angels appear to be targeting. If the Nationals take Anderson, then Arnold may be Plan B after outpitching Doyle down the stretch. They've spent a lot of time on high school shortstops, so don't rule out Willits. The Angels also have done a lot of work on prep shortstops Jo Jo Parker and Daniel Pierce, who would be a stretch at No. 2 but have no chance of getting close to their next pick at No. 47, so other teams are unsure what to make of that.
3. Mariners: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
If Anderson is gone, the Mariners will look at the other two college left-handers in Arnold and Doyle, plus Hernandez and maybe Arquette. Neither Holliday nor Willits is a factor here, but there's chatter that Seattle could do a discount deal with Parker.
4. Rockies: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 2)
The biggest lock of the Draft is that Holliday will go to the club his father Matt starred for if the Rockies get the chance to take him. If not, they'd have to weigh the opportunity to get the most talented player in the Draft in Hernandez with the risk associated with high school right-handers. If they pass on Hernandez, they'll mull Arnold, Willits and Arquette.
5. Cardinals: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)
The Cardinals would like to get a crack at Holliday, Anderson or Arnold, which probably won't happen. If it doesn't, they could choose between Carlson and Willits.
6. Pirates: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)
Arquette is in the mix for each of the top four picks but doesn't appear to be on the front burner for any of those clubs. Any of the top tier of nine players available would get consideration here, which in this case would include Willits, Doyle and Witherspoon.
7. Marlins: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS, Fort Cobb, Okla. (No. 5)
The Marlins seem centered on shortstops and would take Willits over Arquette and Carlson. Parker could be a factor here too, as could non-shortstop Irish.
8. Blue Jays: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 9)
Though the Blue Jays have been linked with shortstops such as Carlson and Parker, they now appear to be pursuing pitching and should be able to land one of the best college arms. Doyle's stock has taken a slight hit after he surrendered 17 runs and 22 hits in his last three starts against SEC opponents (Arkansas twice, Texas).
9. Reds: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 8)
The Reds will wait and see which of the top nine prospects gets down to them, which seems most likely to be Doyle or Witherspoon. Hernandez may not have many landing spots ahead of here and this should be his floor. Outside the top nine, Irish, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Tyler Bremner, Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette and prep third baseman Gavin Fien could be possibilities.
10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 10)
Prep shortstops are the strongest part of this Draft, and the White Sox will tap into that. Unless Willits somehow gets to No. 10, they'll pounce on Parker, who might offer the best combination of hitting ability and power in that demographic. Whoever gets Parker may try to grab his twin brother Jacob, a slugging outfielder, with their next selection. Kayson Cunningham is another shortstop option if Parker goes higher, while Tennessee middle infielder Gavin Kilen might be the top college candidate.
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11. Athletics: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 21)
After the A's expedited 2023 and '24 first-round college bats Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz to the Majors, they could go that route again with Irish, Summerhill or Kilen. Bremner could wind up here after posting double-digit strikeouts in six of his last seven starts.
12. Rangers: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS, Temecula, Calif. (No. 26)
It's mostly prep shortstops for the Rangers. Parker (if he sneaks past the White Sox), Fien (who will move to third base as a pro), Cunningham, Daniel Pierce and Steele Hall all get mentioned here.
13. Giants: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest (No. 12)
This could come down to college position players (Irish, Houston, LaViolette, Summerhill) versus high school shortstops (Pierce, Cunningham), with Bremner also in consideration. This is probably the ceiling for Houston, the best college shortstop who's a lock to remain at the position.
14. Rays: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS, Hoschton, Ga. (No. 18)
The Rays tend to focus on high schoolers and/or up-the-middle players, which could make Pierce, Hall and Cunningham targets and perhaps third basemen Fien and Josh Hammond as well.
15. Red Sox: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 14)
Bremner would be a nice fit for the pitching-needy Red Sox, who also could pop college position players such as Irish, Houston and Summerhill. Fien could be more attractive than all of the college options but he's off the board in this scenario.
16. Twins: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona (No. 19)
Summerhill has some of the best all-around tools in the college crop, so he may not get to No. 16. Other college bat possibilities include Houston, Kilen, LaViolette, Arkansas shortstop Wehiwa Aloy and Coastal Carolina catcher Caden Bodine, while prep shortstops Pierce and Hall also could draw interest.
17. Cubs: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas (No. 22)
The Cubs are tied mostly to college position players such as Summerhill, Aloy and Kilen. Bremner and Pierce are alternatives from other demographics.
18. Diamondbacks: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina (No. 38)
As one of the best contact hitters and framers in the college class, Bodine has passed North Carolina's Luke Stevenson as the best bet to be the first catcher drafted. Houston and Bremner would be possibilities if they're still available, and prepsters such as Cunningham and outfielder Slater de Brun could be too.
19. Orioles: Kayson Cunningham, SS/2B, Johnson HS, San Antonio (No. 11)
Though Cunningham and Fien were the two best hitters on the high school showcase circuit last summer, the former appears to be slipping a bit because of the glut of shortstops. He'd be a nice get for the hitter-happy Orioles, who also could turn to LaViolette, Aloy, Kilen or slugging prep third baseman Xavier Neyens.
20. Brewers: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M (No. 15)
This might be the floor for LaViolette, who began the year as the consensus top college bat and No. 2 in MLB Pipeline's rankings before hitting .258 with a 25.2 percent strikeout rate. Other candidates include Houston, Aloy and Kilen.
21. Astros: Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee (No. 17)
The Astros have used their last four first-round choices on up-the-middle players with strong bats, and Aloy, LaViolette and Kilen all fit that profile. If they choose a different route, Neyens is intriguing.
22. Braves: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville (No. 36)
Forbes was working his way into the upper half of the first round before coming down with a flexor strain in mid-April, but he's rising again after helping Louisville reach the Men's College World Series. The Braves have spent their last six first-rounders on arms, and other mound candidates could include the best high school left-hander (Kruz Schoolcraft) and other second-tier college pitchers such as Alabama right-hander Riley Quick and Arkansas hurlers Zach Root (lefty) and Gage Wood (righty).
23. Royals: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS, Portland, Ore. (No. 16)
Scouting director Brian Bridges loves high school left-handers, so it's hard to imagine him passing up the best one in the entire Draft. High school position players such as Hall, Fien, Hammond, de Brun, second baseman/outfielder Sean Gamble and shortstop Tate Southisene could land here or at the Royals' next choice at No. 28.
24. Tigers: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS, Trussville, Ala. (No. 13)
The Tigers have an affinity for high-upside prep position players, a description that applies to Cunningham, Hall, de Brun, Neyens, Hammond and Gamble …
25. Padres: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS (No. 27)
... but no one covets them more than the Padres, who are pondering the same group of players. Schoolcraft fits their modus operandi but might be hard to squeeze into the third-lowest bonus pool ($6.6 million) among the 30 teams.
26. Phillies: Slater de Brun, OF, Summit HS, Bend, Ore. (No. 25)
The Phillies have used their previous five first-rounders on prepsters, a path that could lead them to de Brun, Neyens or pitchers Jack Bauer and Matthew Fisher. Quick and Wood are a couple of college pitching possibilities.
27. Guardians: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee (No. 29)
Barring someone surprising dropping in their lap, the Guardians may be mulling college bats such as Fischer and outfielders Ethan Conrad (Wake Forest), Devin Taylor (Indiana) and Cam Cannerella (Clemson). De Brun fits their style too.
Supplemental first-round picks
- Royals: Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C. (No. 30)
- Diamondbacks: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest (No. 28)
- Orioles: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina (No. 20)
- Orioles: Mason Neville, OF, Oregon (No. 32)
- Brewers: Sean Gamble, 2B/OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. (No. 23)
- Red Sox: Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana (No. 24)
- Tigers: Landon Harmon, RHP, East Union HS, Blue Springs, Miss. (No. 47)
- Mariners: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama (No. 35)
- Twins: Max Belyeu, OF, Texas (No. 31)
- Rays: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy, La Grange Park, Ill. (No. 56)
- Mets: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson (No. 39)
- Yankees: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas (No. 43)
- Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B/OF, Oaks Christian HS, Westlake Village, Calif. (No. 33)
- Dodgers: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Memorial HS, Evansville, Ind. (No. 44)
- Rays: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian Academy, Jacksonville, Fla. (No. 42)
- Marlins: Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln-Way East HS, Frankfort, Ill. (No. 37)