The first month of the 2025 season is in the books, and while some teams are performing to expectations -- both good and bad -- others have gotten off to surprising starts.
Is there anything to learn from what we’ve seen to this point?
We polled 20 front-office executives to get their thoughts on the opening weeks of 2025, trying to gauge what the first month can tell us about the long marathon ahead.
Note: Executives were free to skip any questions they chose not to answer, while some also provided multiple answers to some questions.
Which team has been the biggest surprise?
Giants (8 votes)
Athletics (5 votes)
Cubs (3 votes)
Padres (3 votes)
Yankees (1 vote)
San Francisco has compiled a 19-13 record, leaving the Giants in the mix in the ultra-competitive National League West.
The Giants’ offense ranked in the middle of the National League (eighth) in runs scored through 32 games, while their team OPS of .684 ranked 13th out of 15 NL clubs. The pitching, on the other hand, was fourth in ERA (3.58) and placed fourth in strikeouts (279) thanks to a bullpen that ranked second with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP.
“They’re playing really well in a tough division,” an American League executive said. “The pitching has exceeded expectations, and Jung Hoo Lee has been a catalyst.”
“Lee has been a big boost, [Logan] Webb is pitching at a very high level and the back of their ‘pen is tough,” said an NL executive. “[Willy] Adames will be a difference-maker once he gets going.”
The Athletics made some noise this offseason with their signings of Luis Severino and José Lelerc, the trade for Jeffrey Springs and extensions for Brent Rooker (five years, $60 million) and Lawrence Butler (seven years, $65.5 million). Those moves have helped the A’s to a 16-15 start, leaving them jockeying with the Mariners, Astros and Rangers near the top of the AL West while earning them five votes from rival executives.
“I thought they would make progress this year, but their team is further along in the process than it initially seemed,” an NL executive said. “They have some legit young players who are going to be fun to watch for quite a while.”
First baseman Tyler Soderstrom (nine home runs, 24 RBIs and a .905 OPS in 32 games) has been a breakout star for the Athletics, while rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson has shown why he was the No. 6 pick in the 2023 Draft.
“Pretty daunting situation, and their young talent have all played up to expectations or better,” an AL exec said. “Soderstrom's breakout looks real and Wilson, Rooker, Butler and [Nick] Kurtz look primed for good seasons. The pitching staff might keep them from finishing off a playoff push, but a good development for an organization that had been struggling.”
The Cubs and Padres received three votes apiece. One exec that mentioned the Padres cited San Diego’s success in spite of “an aging position player group and non-dominant starting pitching,” while another noted the club’s “injuries and limited offseason moves.”
The Cubs sit atop the NL Central despite owning a 3.98 ERA, but the offense -- led by the outfield group of Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong -- is tied with the Dodgers for the NL's best OPS (.799) and ranks second in home runs (46), while leading MLB with 44 stolen bases.
“Where they’re at record-wise, given the schedule they’ve played -- and losing [Justin] Steele -- is impressive,” an NL executive said. “Especially the offense and aggression on the bases.”
Chicago’s offseason included the signings of Carson Kelly and Matthew Boyd and trades for Tucker and Ryan Pressly.
“I think they're being rewarded for pushing it and being aggressive this winter,” an AL exec said.
The only other team to receive a vote was the Yankees, who lead the AL East despite losing Juan Soto to free agency, Gerrit Cole to a season-ending elbow injury and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for the first half of the season with a lat injury.
“Given all the injuries and the departure of Soto, it’s really impressive the team they continue to put together,” an AL executive said.
Which team has been the biggest disappointment?
Orioles (12 votes)
Twins (3 votes)
Braves (3 votes)
Blue Jays (1 vote)
This one seemed like a relatively easy answer for most executives. Baltimore’s 12-18 record and last-place standing in the AL East has put the club in a hole only one month into the season.
“I thought the lineup would carry them, even if the rotation was just OK,” an NL executive said. “But injuries to the rotation and underperformance by most of the remaining starters have been too much to overcome, especially given that a number of their position players -- [Gunnar] Henderson, [Heston] Kjerstad, [Tyler] O’Neill and [Adley] Rutschman have struggled as well.”
“They are too talented to perform this poorly,” another NL executive said.
The pitching has been the biggest culprit for the Orioles, who rank last in the AL with a 5.47 ERA -- thanks to a 6.04 rotation ERA (also last in the league) -- and a 4.74 bullpen ERA (14th out of 15). Losing ace Corbin Burnes to free agency certainly hurt Baltimore, while the early-season struggles of Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich haven’t helped make up for the absence of the injured Grayson Rodriguez.
“They’re really struggling for pitching,” an AL exec said. “And there are very few reinforcements on the way.”
The Braves and Twins finished tied for a distant second place with three votes each.
Atlanta has yet to get an at-bat from 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., who is nearing a return from the torn left ACL he suffered last season. Spencer Strider did return from his own surgical procedure, but the right-hander landed back on the injured list after only one start with a right hamstring injury. Add the shoulder injury that will keep Reynaldo López out for a majority of the season, and the Braves -- who are fighting to get to .500 after opening the year 0-7 -- have been forced to deal with some serious adversity.
“The start they got off to was not indicative of how good they are,” an NL executive said. “I am confident they’ll find themselves in the mix come September, but they have dug a deep hole in the division that will be difficult to make up given how well the Mets have played.”
The Twins’ slow start, on the other hand, came mostly as a result of underperformance rather than injury issues.
“The other teams underperforming have pretty clear injuries to point to and should play a better brand of ball once healthy,” an AL executive said. “The Twins have a roster full of players they expected to win with, sans Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall, but their top guys just aren't performing well.”
Minnesota won six of seven games last week to show signs of life, and thanks to a bunched-up American League, the Twins have plenty of time to overcome their disappointing start.
“While they may not have been the clear favorite in the Central, no one had them starting off 7-15,” an AL exec said of Minnesota. “Perhaps the last week or so is the start of the turnaround.”
Which player has been the biggest surprise?
Jung Hoo Lee (9 votes)
Carson Kelly (3 votes)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (1 vote)
Rhys Hoskins (1 vote)
Gavin Lux (1 vote)
Geraldo Perdomo (1 vote)
Jorge Polanco (1 vote)
Eugenio Suárez (1 vote)
Spencer Torkelson (1 vote)
Given the results of our first question, it’s hardly a surprise that Lee received the most votes. The 26-year-old was limited to 37 uninspiring games during his rookie season in 2024, but he’s showing everyone why San Francisco gave him a six-year, $113 million free-agent deal to bring him to the Majors.
“His signing looked like an overpay a year ago, even before his injury,” an NL executive said. “Now he’s playing like an MVP candidate.”
Lee slashed .319/.375/.526 with three home runs, 18 RBIs and a league-high 11 doubles in his first 30 games this season, pacing the surprising Giants.
“Impressive and unexpected power production so far,” an AL executive said. “If he keeps this up, it will end up being a steal of a contract.”
Kelly has been an unexpected source of offense for the Cubs, with seven homers, 21 RBIs and an eye-popping 1.347 OPS while starting only 16 of Chicago’s first 32 games.
“A 1.400 OPS from a career backup catcher,” an AL exec said. “He’s arguably been one of the Cubs’ best hitters.”
Seven other players each received one vote. Here’s a sampling of thoughts from executives:
“It’s good to see Hoskins get his power stroke back after it looked like the knee injury had sapped his ability to rotate too much to produce at the levels he was used to. His bat speed appears back in 2025, and the production at the plate has returned.” -- AL executive on Hoskins
“This is more a commentary on what he’s accomplished in the past, both good and bad, and how consistent he’s been to start this season. Obviously a four-homer game helps quite a bit!” – NL executive on Suárez
“After a quieter 2024, he’s been a stabilizing force in Seattle’s lineup. His early production in a DH role has given Seattle the internal lift they needed.” -- AL executive on Polanco
Which player has been the biggest disappointment?
Willy Adames (4 votes)
Joc Peterson (3 votes)
Marcus Semien (3 votes)
Sandy Alcantara (1 vote)
Emmanuel Clase (1 vote)
Nestor Cortes (1 vote)
Zac Gallen (1 vote)
Luis Robert Jr. (1 vote)
Anthony Santander (1 vote)
Roki Sasaki (1 vote)
Perhaps the biggest surprise about the Giants’ success this season has been that they have gotten off to a strong start despite the play of Adames, who has a .604 OPS with only two home runs in his first 32 games.
Adames inked a seven-year, $182 million deal with San Francisco this winter, the second-biggest contract given to a position player in the offseason behind only Soto’s $765-million pact with the Mets.
“Early struggles on both sides have stood out more, given the expectations tied to being a key addition for the Giants this offseason,” an AL executive said.
“The Giants have to be worried already about how this signing will age,” added an NL exec.
A pair of Rangers -- Pederson and Semien -- were the only other players to receive multiple votes (three each), which is understandable given their starts to 2025. Pederson has a .108/.205/.176 slash line with no home runs and one RBI in 26 games, while Semien slashed .188/.273/.250 with two homers in his first 31 games.
“[Pederson] has been totally lost at the plate as a bat-only player just starting a large two-year, [$37 million] contract,” an NL executive said. “He’ll be better than this, but very disappointing so far.”
Seven other players each received one vote. Here’s a sampling of thoughts from executives:
“He was seemingly being lauded as the next [Paul] Skenes, and that has not been the case so far. The walks have been surprising.” -- AL executive on Sasaki
“He’s been unhittable in recent seasons, and to see him struggle to this level through the first month of the season is something I don’t think anyone could have predicted.” -- NL executive on Clase
“Baseball is more fun when guys with Cortes' quirks and intrigue are going well. That trade looked like an interesting win/win trade for the Brewers and Yankees, but so far neither team has really received what they were looking for.” -- AL executive on Cortes
Who has been the most impressive rookie?
Kristian Campbell (11 votes)
Jacob Wilson (5 votes)
Cam Smith (2 votes)
Jackson Jobe (1 vote)
The Red Sox showed great faith when they handed the 22-year-old Campbell the starting second-base job at the end of Spring Training, but the 2023 fourth-round pick has rewarded Boston with an impressive start to his career.
Campbell, who entered the season as Boston’s No. 2 prospect and No. 6 in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100, has a .301/.407/.495 slash line with four home runs in his first 29 games -- 24 of them at second base, four in center field and one in left field.
“It has been incredible to see him go from a fourth-rounder to stud big leaguer in less than two years,” said an NL executive. “All while playing both infield and outfield.”
“He looks like the real deal,” said another NL exec. “He can impact the game on both sides.”
Wilson, who was the Athletics’ selection with the No. 6 overall pick in that same 2023 Draft, posted a .629 OPS with no homers and three RBIs in his 28-game debut last season. But the 23-year-old has been impressive in his first full season, slashing .331/.347/.458 with three homers and 16 RBIs in his first 30 games of 2025.
“An elite contact bat has made noticeable strides from both sides of the plate compared to last year’s brief Major League stint,” an AL executive said. “He looks the part and should be an important part of the A’s core moving forward.”
The number that stands out to the executives that voted for him? Wilson has struck out only six times in his first 118 at-bats this season.
“His bat-to-ball skills are among the best I’ve ever seen,” an NL executive said. “Usually you see those skills diminish a bit when a player gets to the MLB level, but he has been able to maintain what is an elite trait.”