Not much has gone well for the Pirates this season.
The offense has struggled, ranking last in the National League in a number of categories including runs, home runs and OPS. Aside from Oneil Cruz, the lineup has several hitters with OPS numbers beginning with fives and sixes.
When Paul Skenes threw the first complete game of his career last Sunday only to find himself on the wrong side of a 1-0 decision, it hardly came as a surprise.
Their 12-26 start resulted in the dismissal of manager Derek Shelton, and while MLB Pipeline ranked the Pirates’ farm system at No. 14 heading into the season, there don’t appear to be any impact bats headed to the big league team anytime soon.
That brings us back to Skenes, who is 3-5 in 10 starts this season despite a 2.44 ERA and an impressive 174 ERA+ over 62 2/3 innings. Pittsburgh is 3-7 in his starts, scoring a total of 14 runs in the seven losses.
Having an ace of Skenes’ caliber in his pre-arbitration years is among the most valuable things a team can possess, because he’s earning a fraction of what most frontline aces are making.
Skenes’ pre-arbitration years should be a time for the Pirates to invest in players, surrounding their young star with talent that might not be as feasible once his salary begins to rise. Instead, Pittsburgh signed a number of players to small one-year deals this offseason, none of whom have helped the Pirates move into the mix in a division many believed was up for grabs.
Pittsburgh hasn’t had a winning record since 2018. Drafting Skenes with the first overall pick in 2023 was supposed to be the start of a new era, and while he’s been as good as advertised -- maybe even better -- since arriving in the Majors last May, the Pirates’ fortunes appear no better than they were before they added him to the rotation.
All of this leads to a difficult question, one which seems impossible to even ask. Pirates fans, you might want to cover your eyes.
Should the Pirates consider trading Skenes?
“I think the bigger question is: what’s the plan, and do their actions match their words?” an NL executive said. “If their intent is to compete during these prime years of Skenes -- and Cruz, [Mitch] Keller, [Jared] Jones, [Bubba] Chandler, etc. -- then they should push more chips in and back it up.”
With four-plus years of club control, Skenes would instantly become the most sought-after trade target in recent memory. Remember the haul the Nationals got for Juan Soto in August 2022, when he was two-plus years from free agency? A package for Skenes at this point in his career would likely exceed that, giving the Pirates a chance to stock their organization with a number of players that could help them get over the hump in their rebuild.
“Their return would likely be as significant a trade return as we’ve ever seen,” an NL executive said. “Though I see little reason to do that before next Trade Deadline [in 2026].”
One AL executive who doesn’t think the Pirates should trade Skenes now believes the return wouldn’t be markedly different if they decide to move him in 2026 or '27, though he acknowledged the risk of injury and/or underperformance that could alter Skenes’ value down the road.
“If they looked to trade him now, I think something like 1.5 times the Soto deal would be a starting point,” the exec said. “The reality is that few teams have that many good players to trade. I guess the Red Sox could send [Triston] Casas, [Roman] Anthony, [Marcelo] Mayer, [Kristian] Campbell and [Tanner] Houck, assuming they won’t trade their extended guys. Writing that down makes me think, ‘Hmmm, maybe Pittsburgh should make a call.’”
That example seems excessive, but would it be? Players like Skenes don’t come around often, and the opportunity to acquire them four-plus years ahead of free agency are even rarer.
“He’s still a guy they can build around, and legit aces are so difficult to find, so it would be incredibly hard to trade him,” said an NL executive. “That said, if they chose to go that route, they could ask for the moon from a contending team and would probably get it. Adding him to a current first-division-type roster could swing the World Series -- and because of the years of control remaining, that team would probably feel pretty good about giving up a lot of their future. It would have to be a franchise-altering deal.”
“Even if you’re 100% rational about this, if you move him, aren’t you conceding that you’re not going to contend until 2030?” an AL exec said. “I’m sure you could get a haul, but is that haul going to help more than he would?”
The Royals traded 26-year-old Cy Young winner Zack Greinke prior to the 2011 season, receiving a four-player package from the Brewers that included Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jake Odorizzi.
Kansas City hadn’t had a winning season since 2003, including each of Greinke’s seven years with the club. Within two years, Cain and Escobar played integral roles in the Royals’ turnaround (each eventually winning ALCS MVP honors), while Odorizzi was used in a trade that brought Wade Davis and James Shields to Kansas City before the 2013 campaign. The Royals reached the World Series in 2014, then won a championship the following season.
A Skenes trade might cause Pittsburgh’s fan base to “revolt,” according to a pair of executives, a factor the club would certainly take into account in this situation.
“As a team, they should consider it; as a franchise, they shouldn’t,” an AL executive said. “As a team, your job is always to consider those kinds of things. But as a franchise, I don’t see how you send that message to your fans.”
The Pirates have been in a similar situation in the recent past, trading Gerrit Cole -- their No. 1 overall draft pick from 2011 -- prior to the 2018 season. Cole was only two years away from free agency, and the Pirates’ return from the Astros included infielder Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin, who were Houston’s No. 5 and 15 prospects, in addition to big league pitchers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz.
The return would likely have been even higher two years earlier, after Cole’s All-Star 2015 season that saw him go 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA, good for a fourth-place finish in the NL Cy Young vote. But the Pirates won 98 games and won a Wild Card spot that season, so trading their ace was never even a thought.
Cole’s arrival in 2013 helped the Pirates turn things around, earning three straight Wild Card berths between 2013-15. Could Skenes spark a similar improvement during the next year or two?
“Sometimes teams take leaps before you expect, so there’s a chance they could figure it out in the next two or three years,” an AL executive said. “I don’t know how much more they would get for him now than they would in two or three years; I think they would get more, but how much more is hard to say.”
One AL executive pointed to Tarik Skubal and the Tigers as the best example of how quickly things can turn around for a young, struggling club.
“Would anyone have picked the Tigers to be this good two years ago?” the executive said. “Detroit’s farm system was rated bottom-five going into 2023, and they also play in a weak division. I think [the Pirates] have a better chance of winning by holding [Skenes] for a few years and then cashing him in. That’s what Tampa Bay does.”
The Rays have taken that approach for a number of years, trading players such as David Price, James Shields, Matt Garza and Chris Archer as they approached their final seasons prior to free agency. Ironically, Tampa Bay dealt Archer to the Pirates at the 2018 Trade Deadline for Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz and Austin Meadows, a trio that could have helped Pittsburgh avoid this anemic run it has been on since 2019.
“You need to be decisive,” an AL executive said. “Skenes is a huge piece to their future, either with them or by using him to elevate their team moving forward.”