This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PHILADELPHIA -- Barring a significant swing in the National League standings over the next three weeks, the Mets will fly either to Los Angeles, San Diego or Chicago at the end of this month for a best-of-three Wild Card Series. It’s possible their starting pitchers in that series will exclusively be rookies.
Although much can change between now and the end of September, Mets officials have already been considering how their rotation might line up for a Wild Card Series. One legitimate possibility, according to a person with knowledge of the talks, would be throwing Nolan McLean (third-ranked prospect), Jonah Tong (fourth-ranked prospect) and Brandon Sproat (fifth-ranked prospect).
McLean, at this point, is all but a lock for any type of playoff rotation. Although he has not had his best stuff in either of his past two starts, McLean still allowed just three total runs in those outings.
While Tong and Sproat haven’t experienced quite the same level of success, Mets officials have been pleased with both pitchers. Manager Carlos Mendoza focused on the positive aspects of Tong’s second start despite the three homers he allowed. Team officials believe in the quality of Tong’s stuff and think he can improve rapidly given more experience. If Tong can more consistently jump ahead in counts, the theory goes, he is likely to find additional success.
Sproat, meanwhile, has made just one start to date, but the Mets were plenty happy with that one, too. Featuring a six-pitch mix, Sproat walked four batters, but he didn’t allow much hard contact.
“I thought he was solid,” Mendoza said. “He pitched.”
Of course, a rookie Wild Card rotation would leave no room for veterans David Peterson, Clay Holmes or Sean Manaea. Peterson, a National League All-Star and the Mets’ best pitcher in the first half of the season, owns a 5.09 ERA over his past 13 starts. Holmes has been more consistent but rarely spectacular, with a 4.58 ERA since the start of July. Manaea, the team’s de facto ace heading into Spring Training, has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his past six outings.
Certainly, there’s time for those veterans to improve, and a strong three-week run from any of them could theoretically vault them into the Wild Card rotation.
If not, all three feature prior bullpen experience and would have a chance to play crucial relief roles, much as Peterson did with aplomb last October. The Mets could also hold one of their veterans back to start Game 1 of a potential NL Division Series on the road.
The wild card in all this is Kodai Senga, who will start at Triple-A Syracuse this weekend in an effort to fix his own second-half troubles. But without rapid improvement, the Mets cannot count on Senga at this juncture. They do believe they can count on their rookies, assuming those pitchers continue to shine in September.
More serious discussions will occur over time. Until then ...
“We’ve got to get there first,” Mendoza said, when asked about a possible cutdown of his rotation. “Our goal is to have those conversations, but we’ve got to get there before we start making plans or anything like that.”