ST. LOUIS -- Max Scherzer is coming.
Well, at least that’s the plan. Scherzer is now scheduled to make his first rehab start Friday with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons, and if he only needs one more outing following that, it could put Scherzer on track to return before the end of June.
“If all goes well” is the key here, of course. We’ve learned along the way that Scherzer’s recurring thumb issue can be complicated and he’s long highlighted that 50-pitch plateau as the danger zone. Only when he really cranks it up for a few innings has the thumb issue found him -- not after shorter bullpen sessions -- so the coming rehab outings will be worth monitoring.
The good news? Scherzer threw 50 pitches Sunday against Blue Jays hitters at their complex in Dunedin, Fla., and came out of that feeling strong.
“For the first one, we’re shooting for 60 to 65 pitches,” John Schneider said Monday in St. Louis. “If all goes well on Friday, we’ll probably do at least one more after that and go from there. We’ll see how he’s responding if he gets up to 75 or 80 the next time, that may be enough. If it’s a little bit less, maybe one more. We’ll be in touch with him and see how he’s feeling.”
Scherzer’s timing couldn’t be better. The Blue Jays have handled his rotation spot fairly well, mixing in Eric Lauer, Paxton Schultz, Easton Lucas and others, but that can’t go on forever. The issue has been compounded by the struggling Bowden Francis, too. While John Schneider says that Francis is locked in to his rotation spot for now, Francis’ 6.12 ERA makes it obvious that things will need to change quickly. Scherzer’s return could give everyone a little room to breathe.
When Scherzer is back, he can still be effective, too. That’s almost been lost in this conversation, and understandably so given the long, challenging recovery from this recurring thumb issue. A healthy Scherzer can still be a good version of Scherzer, though. Between 2023 and ‘24, Scherzer posted a 3.81 ERA over 36 starts, finding ways to win without the high-end stuff that made him a three-time Cy Young Award winner.
For now, all eyes are on Friday. Scherzer has used the term “baby steps” a hundred different times throughout this process, but beginning Friday, the Blue Jays hope he’ll take some longer strides.
TURNBULL JOINS THE ‘PEN… OR ROTATION
Spencer Turnbull’s ramp-up in the Minor Leagues didn’t come with encouraging numbers -- a 7.13 ERA over 5 starts -- but he was working to get his velocity up in a Spring Training of his own. Now that he’s joined the Blue Jays, he’s likely to be part of the solution Wednesday along with Eric Lauer in some capacity.
“I threw a bullpen today, so I’m still on my five-day starter’s routine that I was working with,” Turnbull said. “I’ll be available Wednesday, but I don’t know if I’ll be starting or in bulk relief to start out. We’ll see what they want to do. Both are an option, but if I had to guess, I’d say a little bulk relief to get my feet wet, continue to build up and maybe mix in some starts.”
TURNBULL’S SWEEPER… THANK SHOHEI?
The sweeper is one of Turnbull’s best pitches and it’s a relatively new one for the 32-year-old. Turnbull admits that he likes to tinker, but this one has an interesting backstory.
“I feel like it added a whole other element to my swing-and-miss,” Turnbull said. “Before Tommy John, my slider was my out pitch. Coming back from TJ, it wasn’t as sharp and I was having a hard time finding it again. I didn’t have a lot of innings in ‘23 to figure it out. I heard about the sweeper and a lot of guys were talking about it. I saw a replay of Shohei [Ohtani] striking out Mike Trout at the World Baseball Classic a couple of years ago and I saw the sweeper spin. I was like, ‘How does he get the ball to move like that?’”
Turnbull tinkered with some grips and found his own version of the sweeper. When he took it into a game, he struck out the first batter he faced, so it’s stuck around, thanks to Shohei.