SAN DIEGO -- Just before the Mariners enjoyed their final off-day on Thursday without a break until they return from their three-city, 10-game road trip, they also passed the one-quarter mark of the 2025 season.
There have been notable highs, including a nine-series win streak that was their longest since their historic 2001 season. There have also been pretty extreme lows, headlined by their three most valuable starting pitchers from last season, at least by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, being on the 15-day injured list for the first time in their respective careers.
With all that in mind, and with one of their longest road trips of the first half on tap, here’s a look at where things stand in Seattle -- and where things might be going.
The pace: 89-73
At 23-19, the Mariners have retained sole possession of first place in the American League West since April 27. But that lead is down to a half-game over the Rangers, 1 1/2 games over the Astros and two games over the A’s after Seattle’s 1-5 homestand. Despite the division’s shortcomings last season, it’s been far more competitive in 2025, with each of those four teams at .500 or above.
While the Astros don’t look as daunting, they’ve been the class of the field for a decade. The Rangers haven’t hit well, but their personnel suggests they could turn things around. The A’s, by all indications, appear to be here to stay.
The recent six-game stretch at T-Mobile Park looked mightily similar to the Mariners’ 3-7 start, when they struggled to hit, score and consistently suppress runs. But in between, they went an MLB-best 19-6.
For context, through 42 games last year, the Mariners were an identical 23-19 but wound up finishing 85-77 after their well-chronicled, midsummer spiral that led to significant personnel turnover.
The good: The offense
Even with their disappointing homestand, the Mariners still rank above average in most offensive categories -- seventh in wRC+ (114, where league average is 100), tied for seventh in homers (56), 12th in runs scored (201, or 4.8 per game), 12th in OPS (.726).
These all represent significant improvements from last year. A few causes:
Cal Raleigh has been playing like an MVP, with 13 homers (a 50-homer pace) and a .924 OPS (a healthy 176-point increase from last year).
Jorge Polanco (10 homers, .657 slugging percentage) might be MLB’s most unexpected All-Star, though there’s still two months until the Midsummer Classic in Atlanta for him to maintain this elite production.
The bottom of the order has done its part, with a .315 on-base percentage from the Nos. 7-9 spots that ranks 10th.
The not-so-good: The rotation
It might be a stretch to say that their struggles have been “surprising,” given that the group has been without George Kirby all season, without Logan Gilbert for three weeks and just lost Bryce Miller on Wednesday.
For the year, Mariners starters have collectively posted a 4.12 ERA that ranks 19th, compared to a 3.38 ERA last year that ranked first.
Bryan Woo (2.84 ERA) has been the outlier, as the Mariners have gone 6-2 in his starts, and the third-year righty could be on the cusp of a breakout season. But they’ve been 17-17 behind everyone else.
The promising outlook: Julio Rodríguez
He’s not reached the star-level peak that he’s shown in spurts, but he’s also not been off to that trademark slow start as seen in each of his first three seasons.
In fact, there are some underlying numbers that show the talented center fielder could be heating up. Rodríguez is slashing .286/.327/.490 (.817 OPS) in May, but perhaps most telling is that he’s cut his strikeout rate nearly in half, from 23.7% in March/April to 11.5%.
The troubling outlook: The recent homestand
On the heels of the best five-week stretch in the sport, it’s hardly time to sound the alarm. But some of those concerning trends that faced the offense at the season’s outset -- and for much of last year -- resurfaced during the pair of three-game series vs. the Blue Jays and Yankees.
In that stretch, the Mariners hit .190 with a .546 OPS and 66 strikeouts, all last or second-to-last in MLB during that window.
They’ve shown that they can hit on the road, and they’ll need to in order to keep the strong pace they’ve shown through the season’s first quarter.