HOUSTON -- Postseason’s greetings to all? Not quite -- but not far off, either.
The Mariners arrive at Daikin Park this weekend for maybe their most monumental regular-season series in recent memory, a showdown against the Astros that could decide the American League West.
These are the stakes you strive for, yeah?
“For sure -- let’s [expletive] go,” J.P. Crawford, Seattle’s longest-tenured player, told reporters after Thursday’s win in Kansas City.
Not only do the Mariners and Astros enter the weekend tied for first place, deadlocked at 84-69, they are also 5-5 against each other, meaning this three-gamer will also determine the tiebreaker that could have major implications over the season’s final week, when the Mariners host the Rockies and Dodgers.
“This is why we do what we do, and to be in this position and have exciting baseball this time of year,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “That’s why it’s there. Our guys are ready.”
Beyond the division race, both teams are tied for the second AL Wild Card spot -- just one game ahead of Boston and 1 1/2 games ahead of hard-charging Cleveland.
With just nine games to play, either the Mariners or Astros could conceivably wind up with a bye and home-field advantage in the ALDS -- they’re each now one game behind No. 2-seeded Detroit -- or miss the postseason altogether.
With all that in mind, here’s what to watch for in this colossal showdown:
Not letting history repeat itself
The Mariners were in a nearly identical position two years ago, entering their final three series of the season in a virtual three-way tie with the Astros and Rangers, just a half-game out of first place while clinging to a tie for the final AL Wild Card.
They also had the benefit of exclusively facing those teams to finish the season, with the chance to control their own destiny. But it wound up instead being their final downfall, as a 4-6 stretch sunk Seattle to being the first team on the outside looking in, while Texas and Houston wound up playing deep into October.
Wilson is also an embodiment of the seismic long-term ramifications those shortcomings carried, none bigger than when he replaced Scott Servais the following year, a season in which the Mariners again finished one game back of the final postseason spot.
Though Wilson wasn’t here in 2023, many of Seattle’s core players were and remember the sting.
“You don't go out there and put more on it than you have to,” Cal Raleigh told reporters. “You go out there and you play your game and you play loose. You play free. You play hard. And the results are a byproduct of the process.”
House of horrors no more
With a big weekend, the Mariners would position themselves for the chance to achieve what they’ve been chasing for the past decade -- supplanting the Astros in the AL West while continuing to conquer a ballpark that was once their house of horrors.
From 2019-22, Seattle went 7-32 at Daikin Park, including two back-breaking losses in the 2022 playoffs. But since then, the club is 11-6 in Houston, featuring a 4-0-1 series record.
“They're a really good team,” Raleigh said. “They've been a good team. They've had a really good past eight to 10 years. They've played well at that park. It's going to be up to us to go in there and pitch well and hit well and do our thing.”
Separately, the Mariners must continue to exorcise the road woes that have mostly plagued them in the second half, over which they’ve gone 10-18 away from T-Mobile Park but have won four of their past five.
The matchups
Both teams showed that they’re treating this series with playoff-like urgency by lining up their best arms. It could also hint at how both teams slot a postseason rotation.
- Friday: RHP Bryan Woo (3.02 ERA) vs. RHP Hunter Brown (2.27 ERA)
- Saturday: RHP George Kirby (4.46 ERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (3.59 ERA)
- Sunday: RHP Logan Gilbert (3.53 ERA) vs. RHP Jason Alexander (4.04 ERA)
The Astros haven’t been the juggernaut they were at Daikin Park in years past, as their .710 OPS at home ranks 18th, but it’s .653 since the All-Star break, which is 28th. And they’re now without Yordan Alvarez, who suffered an ankle sprain that will sideline him until the playoffs at the earliest.
It's been their rotation, despite a slew of injuries, that’s carried them -- and Alexander, whom the Mariners haven’t faced yet, has been an unsung catalyst, with a 2.76 ERA and 11-1 team record since being acquired from the A’s in May.
The Mariners, meanwhile, enter as arguably the sport’s hottest team, winners of 11 of their past 12 games, over which they have an .888 OPS and 23 homers (both best in MLB), while compiling a 2.45 ERA (second-best).