The Mariners should have broken through by now.
It sure looked, when they ended their 20-season playoff drought in 2022, like a new Mariners era was upon us. They were young and exciting, with an ownership group seemingly eager to spend and famously one of the most loyal fanbases in the entire sport -- not to mention a general manager who never met a trade he didn’t like.
Which is why it was such a bummer to see the Mariners go backward the past couple of years. They finished third in the AL West in 2023 and second in 2024, and missed the postseason both times – albeit by just three games combined. There were moments when they looked ascendent; a streaky team like the Mariners often does. But in the end, they just couldn’t quite get there. Seattle is still without a division title since 2001 and remains the only Major League franchise without a World Series appearance.
But it sure looks like 2025 might be the year Mariners fans have waited so long to arrive. After winning two of three during a fiery series against the A’s in West Sacramento, the Mariners are now 22-14, three games up in the division and with the second-best record in the American League. After an offseason that was less active than you might have expected, the Mariners have come storming out of the gates.
Is this year’s team going to be different? Here are five reasons this just might be the year for Seattle.
1. This is their best offense in years.
For years, the book on the Mariners was that their perpetually splendid rotation would ultimately be undone by their offense. The Mariners were always trying to squeeze out anything they could from the lineup around Julio Rodríguez, hoping a young rookie or occasional mercenary veteran could get hot at the right time to give that rotation a chance.
But this year, the Mariners are actually hitting! They entered Thursday fifth in the Majors in both OPS (.755) and runs per game (5.14), despite playing their home games in a notoriously tough park for hitters. They’ve gotten contributions up and down their lineup, from a resurgent J.P. Crawford to a postseason-level Randy Arozarena to even, out of nowhere, a resurgent Jorge Polanco.
But the biggest story has been the continued rise of the Big Dumper, catcher Cal Raleigh, who is tied for the Major League lead in homers and looks not only like a legit MVP candidate but also the sort of true slugger the Mariners haven’t had since … Nelson Cruz? For the first time in what feels like ages, if the Mariners don’t get a dominant start on the mound, they can still beat you.
2. Rodríguez hasn’t even gotten going yet.
You should know that, heading into the season, Rodríguez was my AL MVP Award pick. That’s not looking great right now -- though it’s looking a lot better than my “the Orioles are making the World Series” pick -- which is not to say Rodríguez has been all that bad. His OPS is .732 -- almost exactly where it was last year -- and he has generally been a positive offensive force.
But he hasn’t been MVP Julio. Now, we’ve never seen MVP Julio over a full season, but we have seen it for month-long stretches, pretty much every year of his career. (He single-handedly got them close to the playoffs two years ago.) His career numbers show consistent upticks as the season goes along: a .907 lifetime OPS in July, .918 in August and .919 in September/October.
In other words, this is basically a normal year for him. Which means as the weather warms up … well, that’s when we see MVP Julio.
3. The pitching is about to get healthy.
Mariners pitchers have not been bad this year, even if they haven’t quite measured up to what the hitters are doing. They’re still in the top half of baseball in ERA, thanks largely to Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo, who had a rough start Wednesday but still looks like the pitcher the Mariners have long believed he can be.
But, right now, the back of the rotation has Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans, talented young pitchers who nonetheless have ERAs of 5.70 and 7.20, respectively, in seven combined starts. That may not be the case for long, however. George Kirby (right shoulder inflammation) made his first rehab start on Sunday and should return soon. Logan Gilbert (right elbow flexor strain) has restarted a throwing program, his first step back toward rejoining the rotation.
If the Mariners can get all of their arms in place, they will likely rise to the level that we have gotten used to seeing them for the last few seasons. This has been one of the best rotations, if not the best, in the game, finishing first in the Majors in ERA in 2024 and third in ’23. And this time, they’ve got a lineup that has their back.
4. No one else in the division is stepping up.
There was a brief moment Tuesday night when it looked like the A’s were going to win and end up in a virtual tie with the Mariners atop the AL West. A rally, and a pinch-hit appearance by Raleigh, took care of all that, and the Mariners’ wild win on Wednesday gave them a three-game lead heading into a big six-game homestand against the Blue Jays and Yankees that starts Friday.
And as much fun as the A’s are, can we be sure they’re a serious contender in this division? No one else in the AL West is feeling all that serious right now, either. The Rangers are in such turmoil that they’re demoting some guys, cutting others and bringing in Bret Boone to fix the lineup. The Astros look like a shadow of the team we’ve seen win this division for so many years. And the Angels are the Angels.
The Mariners don’t have to win 100 games to win this division. And they seem well positioned to win 90 -- which is all it will probably take.
5. We certainly know they’ll have no worries adding where they need help.
One of the more disorienting aspects of this offseason was how relatively quiet the Mariners were under general manager Jerry Dipoto. This is Tradin’ Jerry! Shaking up the roster is what he does for fun! But another opportunity could come along soon.
Considering how well positioned the Mariners are right now, this summer’s Trade Deadline may play exactly to Dipoto’s strengths. The Mariners could probably use some bullpen fortifications, and if they’re feeling frisky, perhaps a third baseman to give that lineup some more heft and veteran presence. (Could Nolan Arenado end up being available again and willing to go to Seattle? He’d be the perfect fit.)
Point is: Tradin’ Jerry is about to have his moment to shine. He’ll be doing so for quite possibly the best team he’s had since coming to town.