Among teams expected to contend this year, there may be no fanbase more down on its team right now than the Baltimore Orioles fanbase. You can understand why.
As has been well documented, the Orioles underwent a major rebuild after hiring Mike Elias away from the Astros back in 2018 to run baseball operations. And similar to the Astros of the early 2010s, the O’s began an ascent toward contention. They emerged with a surprise above-.500 finish in 2022, and then, amazingly, a 101-win season in 2023. (They won 91 games last year.) They had great young hitters, a motivated front office and, most of all, that fanbase, which represented pure, unadulterated joy every time you turned on an Orioles game. Remember all the different names for the Homer Hose?
But all that promise, right now, isn’t paying off. The Orioles have been swept out of two straight postseason series. They lost Corbin Burnes to free agency this past winter and didn’t sign a notable replacement. Some of those young hitters are stalling. And now, they find themselves sitting at 15-24 and in last place in the American League East. Orioles fans have to be wondering … is this all there was?
Elias spoke to reporters last week to calm the roiling seas and said he was still “really optimistic” about this team. That was met with some skepticism, but … well … I actually think there might be something to what he’s saying. As someone who picked the Orioles to reach the World Series this year [tugs collar nervously], I have a vested interest in still believing in the Orioles. And I think there are real reasons to do that.
Orioles fans: Don’t give up yet! Here are five reasons why:
1. This isn’t who these hitters are
The Orioles rank 21st in OPS, 24th in runs scored and 26th in on-base percentage. Suffice it to say, when the list of worries about this year’s season were listed in Spring Training, “the hitters will be in the bottom-third of the Majors” wasn’t particularly high up there. It’s tough to find a hitter who isn’t underperforming right now.
Gunnar Henderson (who was a serious AL MVP candidate for much of last year), Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser (before an injury), Coby Mayo (seriously, yikes) and, perhaps most worrisomely, Adley Rutschman have hit far, far below any reasonable expectations. And while I suppose it’s possible that every single one of these hitters, all of whom were either very recently All-Stars or clearly showing signs that they’d be one soon, have all just had their talent evaporate Mon-stars style, the more likely explanation is that they are just slumping right now, and a surge is coming. (Henderson is already starting to show this.) The O’s team wOBA is .302, but their xwOBA is .320. That gap of -.018 is the eighth largest in MLB -- a suggestion that they are hitting into some bad luck.
Everybody counted on the Orioles hitting this year, and if they never figure it out, yeah, this team is doomed. But these are outstanding hitters. They’re going to figure it out. Speaking of which, another young star -- perhaps the one with the highest upside -- is starting to do just that …
2. Holliday appears to be finding his stride
It was probably unreasonable for us to all expect Jackson Holliday -- the top overall prospect in the sport a year ago -- to just show up and start destroying the baseball last year, and it thus shouldn’t have been surprising when he struggled. (And he struggled mightily.) But this remains, well, a guy who was the top prospect in baseball a year ago and one who, we should probably try to remember, is still only 21 years old.
Even with an 0-for-4 showing on Sunday, Holliday is still slashing .327/.411/.469 with two homers and seven runs scored over his past 16 games. Even more encouraging: His strikeout rate has dropped from 33.2% last year to 24.6% this year.
Holliday was considered the sort of five-tool prospect that would end up challenging Henderson as the top player on the roster. He is, slowly, starting to show it. And, again: He’s 21 years old! He is the very definition of growth potential.
3. The rotation is starting to get healthy
The most encouraging thing about the Orioles’ 7-2 win over the Angels on Sunday was not the win itself. It was the performance of Zach Eflin, who made his first start in more than a month after going down with a strained right lat. Eflin threw 83 pitches -- more than he’d been expected to throw -- and gave up two runs in five innings, earning the win. (He even walked two guys, rare for him, but worked around it.)
Eflin is one of the many, many Orioles starters who have gone down to injury this year, which -- combined with Charlie Morton, at last, pitching like the old man he is -- has led to the Orioles having one of the worst rotations in baseball. But Eflin, along with just-returned Kyle Gibson, is just the first of the reinforcements. Trevor Rogers is rehabbing with Triple-A Norfolk right now, as is reliever Andrew Kittredge. Grayson Rodriguez could be back at the beginning of June. This summer could see Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish return. Now, the Orioles still have to stay afloat between now and then. (It’s worth noting that Dean Kremer has been solid after a rocky April, and Tomoyuki Sugano has been solid all year.) The Orioles could still use some help, but it’s a little less barren around here than it was two weeks ago.
4. No one in this division, or in the AL Wild Card race, is pulling away
Remember when the AL East was the division of titans? (I guess that’s the AL Central now?) There are only two teams above .500 in the AL East right now, and one of them, the Red Sox, has all sorts of internal turmoil. The Rays, who are 11-17 at “home,” have struggled at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Blue Jays have just now crawled back to .500 and while Aaron Judge is justifiably getting every plaudit and headline, it should be noted that the Yankees are only six games over .500 themselves. (They’d be in fourth in the NL West.)
If the Orioles were in the NL West, you can see how they might already be buried. They’d be 11 games behind the Dodgers. But they went into Monday's off-day sitting 7 1/2 games behind the Yankees and only 5 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. It’s not even mid-May yet. The Orioles have plenty of time to figure this out.
5. The front office and ownership are feeling some real pressure, which is a good thing
That Elias felt obliged to come out and cool down some of the rhetoric swirling around this team is actually a positive sign for O’s fans. The miserable start, and the fans’ reaction to it, could not be ignored; certainly, the Orioles, who spent the winter arguing they had enough pitching, aren’t saying that now. It’s clear that the Orioles can’t ask their fans to be patient much longer, which means they may have to start making some of the riskier moves they’ve been averse to making up to this point.
The Orioles haven’t acted like a team that needs to win now for a while, but the early struggles, and the fan frustration, are big blinking warning signs that maybe they really do need to win now. This team isn’t as bad as it has looked so far. But it does need some help. Maybe this start will help it actually go get some. I’m not ready to give up my World Series pick just yet.