DENVER -- With the way this season’s gone, even the Blue Jays’ problems are good news.
When Shane Bieber makes his Toronto debut, which is tentatively penciled in for two rehab starts down the road, manager John Schneider will be starting at six legitimate starters, none of whom deserve to be bumped to the bullpen.
The sweep of Colorado didn’t make this any simpler, either, coming off Wednesday afternoon’s 20-1 win over the Rockies at Coors Field with local guy Kevin Gausman giving the Blue Jays seven innings of one-run ball. There’s no struggling starter here and no obvious way to handle this, but Schneider isn’t expecting this looming decision to disrupt what they’ve built here.
“They get it. They’re a veteran group and they all deserve to have their start day,” Schneider said. “Baseball works itself out. The first thing is, ‘Do not be looking over your shoulder.’ Those guys are here and they’re established Major League pitchers. In a couple of weeks, when you have to make a decision, you make that decision with all of the information that you have. They get it. You’re talking to adults. You’re not explaining this to kids.”
There are three ways this can play out. Either the Blue Jays have a very uncomfortable conversation with one of their starters, they pivot to a six-man rotation or ...
“Baseball has a way of working itself out,” Schneider said.
He’s probably right. These “good problems” tend to take care of themselves, but if the Blue Jays do end up on the doorstep of a decision in the middle of August, it’s not going to be easy.
Rotation breakdown:
Shane Bieber: The Blue Jays have dreams of Bieber starting an early game in the American League Division Series. There’s zero bullpen conversation being had here. Moving on.
Kevin Gausman: Gausman is still flashing the ability to be an ace on the right day, and if the postseason started today, Gausman is starting one of the first three days. Sure, his fastball and splitter might play up in a short stint, but this is Kevin Gausman.
Max Scherzer: It happened unintentionally and cost a few months of frustration, but it looks like Scherzer’s thumb injury has left him fresh for the stretch run. He’s flashed dominance lately. There’s legitimate upside here coming out of the bullpen for two to three innings in October, which he’s done with the Dodgers and Nationals in the past, but Scherzer might be earning an early start in a series.
Chris Bassitt: Everything about Bassitt is built for starting, not relieving. His game is keeping hitters off-balance with his mile-long list of pitches and eating innings. Again, this doesn’t feel like a profile that fits in the bullpen.
Jose Berrios: Much like Bassitt, Berríos is a true starter. Sure, his breaking ball might tick up a bit in shorter stints, but he has battled some velocity dips recently and is one of MLB’s most consistent, reliable starting pitchers. Check another name off the list that just doesn’t quite make sense.
Eric Lauer: The 30-year-old lefty might be the story of the season. If you really focus on the definition of “valuable”, there’s even a team MVP case to be made here. Lauer’s 2.59 ERA deserves only celebration, not a conversation about a role change.
Toronto’s rotation is full of true, stable starting pitchers. If one of these names owned a 4.75 ERA but had a 97-mph fastball and snapping slider, then we’d be having a much different conversation. But these veterans are built to be appreciated across six-plus innings, not in loud, unpredictable bursts. The coming 10 days could change everything, as Schneider alludes to, but it’s difficult to make much of an argument for anyone here.
What about a six-man rotation?
It’s an idea often raised but rarely used. We could finally be looking at a situation that begs for it, though, if the Blue Jays feel confident that it wouldn’t lead to “too much” rest down the stretch.
Scheduled off-days on Sept. 4 and 8 would create an awkward stretch of rest for a couple of pitchers involved, but otherwise, the Blue Jays could get by with just one extra day of rest added along the way. This will be easier, of course, once rosters expand in September and the team can add another reliever.
Unless this all takes care of itself, a six-man rotation is absolutely on the table. It’s an awkward decision with no “right” answer just yet, but these are the right kinds of problems to have.