On April 11, 2024, Hunter Brown allowed a career-high nine runs while recording just two outs against the Royals.
Three starts later, Brown allowed six runs in 5 1/3 innings, moving his season ERA to 9.78 and career ERA to 5.20 through his first 44 big league outings. While the underlying numbers suggested better results would come, there were at least some reservations about the type of impact starter Brown could become.
Since the calendar flipped to May 2024, Brown has shifted his career trajectory and taken off as one of the best starters in the Majors. Among 126 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 innings since May 1, 2024, Brown’s 2.25 ERA ranks third, while only seven starters best his 4.8 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement.
Brown has been even better this year, posting a 1.22 ERA in his first six starts (37 innings) and 1.5 fWAR, tied with Logan Webb for the most among any starter. Brown just rattled off an MLB-best 28-inning scoreless streak that was snapped in his most recent outing. The right-hander will make his seventh start on Saturday against the White Sox in Chicago.
“I think just as your career goes on, you grow,” Brown told MLB.com’s Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart this spring. “I can date it back all the way when I was playing college ball, how I felt as a freshman coming in and when I left as an upperclassman. Even when I had two seasons in Triple-A, how I felt the first time I got there and now. Now here, I have a couple of seasons under my belt, so I definitely feel a lot better.”
What’s sparked Brown’s turnaround to becoming a bona fide ace? Well, there’s a whole lot. Let’s dive in.
Diversifying his approach
There was never a question about Brown’s stuff during his early struggles. Brown -- who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 Draft out of Division II Wayne State -- came to the Majors as a top prospect and a flamethrowing right-hander who was frequently compared to former teammate and no-doubt Hall of Famer Justin Verlander.
After his initial lumps in the Majors, though, we’ve seen Brown both diversify his approach and improve his already-great stuff.
Brown was basically a three-pitch pitcher for his first two seasons. His four-seamer, knuckle curveball and cutter accounted for 94 percent of his arsenal, with Brown mixing in the occasional sweeper and changeup.
Then the young right-hander began to tinker. On May 5, 2024, Brown threw his first sinker in the big leagues, which was the beginning of his rise to becoming an ace. That sinker became his second-most utilized pitch behind his four-seamer last season. Brown also came into the ‘24 season with a new sharp slider and ramped up the usage of his changeup. This season, Brown took those new pitches and created one of the most diverse collections and utilization of pitches you’ll find from any starter today.
Brown’s pitch usage closely mirrors a growing trend among big league starters: throw more sinkers and incorporate more pitches into your arsenal. Brown is one of many starters who moved away from a popular recent trend of simply throwing your best pitches as much as possible. The name of the game right now is to diversify your approach.
The stuff has gotten better, too
Brown hasn’t just created a more balanced approach to give hitters more to think about. The 26-year-old has also seen a huge uptick in his already-strong stuff.
Brown’s velocity on all three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker and cutter) is up 1.5 mph from 95.0 in 2024 to 96.5 mph this season, the fifth-largest jump of any starter with at least 20 innings. Brown has seen his four-seamer jump to 97.2 mph, sixth-fastest among starters, while his cutter is up to 93.3 mph, fourth-hardest among starting pitchers.
He’s seen a similar velocity bump on his breaking balls. His knuckle curveball up 1.3 mph to 84.2 mph and he didn’t sacrifice any drop in the process. As a result, Brown’s curveball is dropping 6.2 inches more than curveballs at a similar velocity, tied for sixth-best among starting pitchers. Brown’s slider is also up to 90.9 mph, making it the fastest slider by any starter.
Put that all together and Brown grades out extremely well by Stuff+, which looks at the physical characteristics of a pitch.
Best Stuff+ among SP, min. 20 IP
77 qualifying pitchers
1. Hunter Greene (CIN): 124
2. Tarik Skubal (DET): 118
3. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 115
4. Tylor Megill (NYM): 113
5-T. Jackson Jobe (DET): 112
5-T. Hunter Brown (HOU): 112
5-T. Garrett Crochet (BOS): 112
5-T. Drew Rasmussen (TB): 112
Brown still fared well last season, but his 105 Stuff+ was tied for 25th among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.
Now, Brown’s uptick in stuff has him in the company of some of the best pitchers in the sport.
Combining stuff and precision
For a pitcher slinging three high-velocity fastballs and a trio of great secondary pitches, you might assume Brown can operate by simply blowing stuff past hitters.
While his 29.9 percent strikeout rate is excellent (86th percentile), you might be surprised to see a 26.9 percent whiff rate that ranks in the 60th percentile. Brown might not be a whiff-inducing monster -- that’s partially due to his high fastball usage -- but he’s also made major strides in commanding the baseball.
After running an 8.4 percent walk rate through his first three seasons, that number is down to 5.2 percent this year. That drop in walk rate has less to do with improving his overall strike rate and more to do with generating more chases and throwing more pitches in the shadow zone, the area that is the width of two baseballs (one inside the zone, one outside) all around the edges of the strike zone.
Brown in 2022-24 vs. 2025
Chase rate: 27.5% vs. 32.9%
Shadow zone/edge rate: 42.0% vs. 48.4%
Among starters who’ve thrown at least 20 innings, Brown’s 5.6 percent improvement in chase rate from last season is only bested by three pitchers, while his 6.3 percent jump in edge rate is only topped by two pitchers.
Most pitchers living on the edge of the zone do so because they’re control-over-stuff guys who have to command the baseball to survive. That’s not the case for Brown, who is top 10 in edge rate but also has much better stuff than those around him.
Top edge rates + each pitcher’s avg. four-seamer/sinker velocity
133 qualifying starters
1. Aaron Nola (PHI): 50.9% // 90.7 mph fastball
2. Tyler Mahle (TEX): 49.7% // 92.0 mph fastball
3. Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 49.5% // 86.3 mph fastball
4. Chris Paddack (MIN): 49.3% // 93.7 mph fastball
5-T. Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ): 48.5% // 91.8 mph fastball
5-T. Zack Littell (TB): 48.5% // 91.7 mph fastball
7. Hunter Brown (HOU): 48.4% // 96.8 mph fastball
When you combine the stuff and command Brown is showing, few starters are rivaling him. By looking at Stuff+ and its counterpart Location+ -- essentially a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place -- Brown is in elite company.
Starting pitchers with at least a 110 Stuff+ and 105 Location+
Tarik Skubal (DET): 118 Stuff+, 110 Location+
Hunter Brown (HOU): 112 Stuff+, 108 Location+
Drew Rasmussen (TB): 112 Stuff+, 105 Location+
Zack Wheeler (PHI): 111 Stuff+, 105 Location+
Brown has accomplished the trifecta of boosting his stuff, diversifying his arsenal and commanding the ball better. As a result, Houston’s righty is looking like a potential ace to build around for years to come. That could especially ring true if impending free agent Framber Valdez -- long the ace of the Astros' staff -- departs this offseason.
Even amidst all the turnover in Houston, Brown could be the latest Astro who helps keep their competitive window alive for the foreseeable future.