With April coming to a close, we are a full month-plus into the 2025 season -- which means there is already a lot worth analyzing. Sure, it’s just one month into a six-month regular season, but plenty of trends have already begun to take shape.
Let’s take a look at current division leaders and try to project what the postseason field could look like come October. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first (or last) place
Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league after the ‘95 campaign was limited to 144 games due to the strike that began in 1994 -- 86 of 168 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering May 1. That’s 51 percent of division winners.
Take note, Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers fans -- those teams are our current division leaders heading into May.
Last season, three of the six division winners had a share of that lead on May 1. In the American League, the Guardians won their division, while the Orioles and Mariners, who led the AL East and West, respectively, entering May, did not. Baltimore made it as a Wild Card, but Seattle did not. In the NL, the Dodgers and Brewers won their divisions, but the Braves, who led the East entering May, did not, instead making the playoffs as a Wild Card.
Since 1996, 17 of the 28 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering May. The Dodgers did so in ‘24, as noted above.
This year, the defending champion Dodgers are in first place entering May. How rare is that? Rarer than you might think. Of each of the 28 teams to win the World Series since 1996 and play in April the next year, the Dodgers are just the 10th to find themselves in first place through April that subsequent year. The last reigning World Series winners to be in first entering May before this were the 2018 Astros.
What about the last-place teams? There’s plenty of season left, and it’s worth keeping up hope. Last year, the Astros became the first team to be in last place entering May and go on to win their division since the 2015 Blue Jays and Rangers. Overall since 1996, 13 teams have had at least a share of last place in a division, then gone on to make the playoffs that season. Of those, seven were division winners and six were Wild Cards.
This year’s leaders
Of this year’s current NL division leaders entering May, each has had at least a share of that lead entering May at least one other time since the start of 2018 -- the Dodgers as recently as last year, the Mets last in 2022 and Cubs in 2018. In the AL, the Mariners were in this spot last year, the Yankees in ‘22 and the Tigers in 2014.
The Yankees and Dodgers each won their divisions last season. Beyond that, it’s been a while. The Cubs last won the division in 2017, the Mets in 2015, the Tigers in 2014 and the Mariners in 2001.
What’s next
There’s plenty of baseball yet to be played, but fans of the six current division leaders can take some solace in the fact that historically, about half of those teams will go on to win those divisions. And for fans of non-leading teams? Well, just about 50/50 means there’s plenty of room for a different team to take these division crowns, too.