CHICAGO -- Dylan Cease returned to the mound at Rate Field on Friday night for the first time since he was traded from the White Sox to the Padres 18 months ago. At the time, the move was a stunner. Not because the White Sox traded Cease -- but because San Diego came from seemingly out of nowhere to land him. (Just before the team was set to depart for its season-opening series in Korea, no less.)
In hindsight, of course, the trade made total sense. The Padres needed rotation stability, and Cease provided plenty of it. He was durable, and for the majority of the 2024 season, he was excellent, finishing fourth in voting for the National League Cy Young Award. On top of that, Cease wouldn’t reach free agency until after the 2025 season. He could, in theory, headline the Padres’ rotation for two seasons.
But the 2025 season has been a slog. Cease has struggled. And -- with October approaching -- could the Padres ever use a bit of rotation stability right now?
In his South Side return, Cease looked like he has for much of the season -- tantalizing stuff, inconsistent performance. He allowed four runs over six innings, while striking out six in the Padres’ 4-3 loss to the White Sox. He wasn’t particularly poor -- and was at times overpowering. But not consistently enough.
“I really don’t hate where I was at,” Cease said. “Just, I put too many guys on, and they capitalized.”
With the loss, the Padres’ earliest potential postseason clinch date is now Sunday -- and even that seems unlikely, given that it would require two Padres wins plus two losses apiece by the Reds and Diamondbacks.
Still, a clinch is almost certainly coming, and with it a road Wild Card Series -- perhaps back here in Chicago against the Cubs. When the time comes, the Padres will have serious questions to answer regarding their rotation for that best-of-three series.
Nick Pivetta seems to be destined for a Game 1 start, but beyond Pivetta, it’s murky. Cease remains a picture of durability, and his stuff is excellent. But his 4.64 ERA this season and his maddening inconsistency makes it unclear if he’ll even be part of the Padres’ Wild Card Series rotation plans.
Then again, the other options come with question marks as well. Michael King was roughed up by the Mets in his second start back from the injured list on Tuesday. Yu Darvish sports an ERA north of 5 this season. Randy Vásquez has been solid, but the Padres have rarely entrusted him with opportunities to work deep into games.
At this stage, Cease would seem to have as good a chance as anyone to start Game 2 or 3. This much is clearly true: The Padres believe Cease can still be the ace-caliber righty they traded for last March.
“Absolutely, it can happen,” said manager Mike Shildt. “It has happened. It happened tonight. It’s just the consistency of it happening. There are innings where he’s just in complete control. It’s just the consistency of it.”
Cease surrendered a two-run homer to Miguel Vargas in the first inning, then found his groove. He retired eight straight White Sox and overall had a somewhat out-of-character curveball-heavy mix. But, as soon as Cease found that dominance, he lost it.
In the fourth, he walked Vargas, then plunked Mike Tauchman and Edgar Quero consecutively. On both occasions, he was trying to come inside against a lefty. On both occasions, he yanked it way too far in.
The White Sox quickly capitalized with singles to plate a pair of runs. From there, the Padres’ offense couldn’t claw it back -- outhitting Chicago’s, but without enough slug (as has become a theme).
With that, Cease’s return to the South Side had been spoiled. Not that he was concerning himself much with the sentimentality of it all.
“[That’s] probably for the rest of the weekend,” Cease said. “I was really just focused on pitching today. Beyond that, I didn’t really have my mind on too much else.”
There’s still time for Cease to shape his legacy in San Diego. It’s possible some of the biggest starts of his Padres tenure are still to come. But he’ll need to be much better than he’s been for most of the season. Specifically, he’ll need to be much more consistent.
Cease is scheduled to make one more regular-season start on the Padres’ final homestand next week. Whether he’ll get the ball after that -- perhaps back in Chicago -- remains to be seen.