More than five weeks after Opening Day, all six divisions remain up for grabs. If there are going to be any runaway winners, they haven’t separated themselves just yet.
In fact, heading into Saturday’s action, each division's second place club is within four games of the division leader, and all but one is within three games.
In other words, nothing has been decided. But that doesn’t mean we can’t try to read the tea leaves. Therefore, we gathered 10 MLB.com writers and researchers and held a draft based on a simple (yet difficult) question: Pick the team that you feel the most confident will be crowned a division champ at the end of the season, taking into account what we’ve seen so far and how strong each race looks.
Here are the results:
1. Dodgers (NL West)
Currently: 1st place, 1.5 games ahead of SD
You know you’re a good team when you have MLB’s best record but have seemingly fallen short of expectations. That’s how some may view the Dodgers, who, after starting 8-0 and igniting so much chatter about whether they will challenge the AL/NL single-season wins record, are “only” 14-10 since.
No one can dispute that the Dodgers have the most talented roster in baseball. A chunk of that talent, especially on the pitching side, is currently on the injured list. But they dealt with a glut of injured pitchers last season, and all they did was win the NL West by five games en route to a World Series title. We shouldn’t expect a different outcome now.
Many of those arms will return to help the Dodgers this summer. Meanwhile, Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks like a bona fide Cy Young threat, the bullpen ranks second in the NL in strikeout-to-walk rate, and the lineup paces the Senior Circuit in home runs and ranks second in OPS. The Dodgers won’t win 116 games, but they should win their division for the 12th time in 13 seasons.
-- Brian Murphy
2. Cubs (NL Central)
Currently: 1st place, 2 games ahead of CIN
The Cubs aren’t just a good baseball team -- they’ve played an incredibly fun brand of baseball. Cubs hitters lead the Majors in runs (202) and stolen bases (44), which would make them the first team since the 2001 Mariners to lead in both categories if they're able to finish the season atop both lists. They’ve also slugged 49 home runs, the third-most in the Majors, with a half-dozen Cubs homering at least five times.
Kyle Tucker has been his usual excellent self (.956 OPS) in his first year on the north side, but there’s been plenty of other firepower in the red-hot Pete Crow-Armstrong (two more homers on Friday give him eight for the season), Seiya Suzuki (.966 OPS), Michael Busch (.894 OPS) and Carson Kelly (.364 BA, 7 HR in 18 games).
It’s not quite as rosy on the pitching side, with roughly an average ERA (3.86), no Justin Steele for the rest of the year and a volatile bullpen (4.53 ERA). Luckily, the Cubs are in a prime position to make an impact trade at this year's Trade Deadline and win an NL Central division that is open for the taking.
-- Brent Maguire
3. Yankees (AL East)
Currently: 1st place, 2 games ahead of BOS
Between the Blue Jays’ dramatic power outage and the Orioles’ rotation woes, the Red Sox and Yankees are both nicely positioned in the AL East, but the Yankees have an edge.
First, they lead baseball in home runs (54), OBP (.349) and SLG (.477), and rank second to the Cubs in batting average (.265) and runs per game (5.6). In his latest step towards becoming completely inevitable, Aaron Judge is doing everything he did last year and hitting .430. But Paul Goldschmidt (.361 BA), Trent Grisham (8 HR, .958 OPS) and Ben Rice (8 HR, .950 OPS) have also been great, and likely to contribute more at some point are Cody Bellinger and Austin Wells.
Pitching-wise, Devin Williams' poor introduction (12 R/10 ER in 11 IP) has grabbed attention, but the rest of the bullpen has a combined 2.24 ERA. Sure, Gerrit Cole is sidelined for the season, but new guy Max Fried is making a great impression (6-0, 1.01 ERA in seven starts) and Carlos Rodón (0.98 WHIP, 11.1 K/9) has shown hints of his 2021-22 form. Adding at least one really good starter won't be optional, but this is a loud and clear opening statement.
-- Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru
4. Astros (AL West)
Currently: 3rd place, 3 games behind SEA
Apologies to the Mariners, who hold a two-game lead in the AL West entering play Saturday. But the Astros have won the division four years running, and although they look a little different this year, there’s plenty of reason to expect them to extend that streak to five.
Yeah, they lost Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman this offseason. Sure, none of their qualified hitters has an OPS above .800. So why have more confidence in Houston than Seattle?
Well, history is one factor, and positive regression is another. Yordan Alvarez (.210 BA, .646 OPS) is bound to get it going eventually, and that’s a scary thought for AL West foes. Free-agent addition Christian Walker is likely to pick it up offensively as well, and the Astros should be getting more from catcher Yainer Diaz. The fact that they’re only three games behind a hot-hitting Mariners club despite all that? It sure bodes well for Houston going forward.
-- Theo DeRosa
5. Mets (NL East)
Currently: 1st place, 3.5 games ahead of PHI
The Mets were the first team to reach 20 wins this season. Their 2.69 ERA leads the Majors. Their 109 wRC+ entering Friday was fourth in the NL behind the Cubs, Dodgers and D-backs.
That’s a great start for any team, but especially impressive and encouraging with respect to winning the division given a few facts. Consider that Sean Manaea hasn’t even pitched for them yet this year. Neither has offseason acquisition Frankie Montas. And still, Mets starters have not had a game allowing more than four runs.
On the offensive side, they’re doing all of this without even getting the full Juan Soto Experience yet, which they certainly will get soon if Thursday’s two-homer game is any indication.
Yes, the Phillies and Braves will continue to look better. But the Mets are in a great spot.
-- Sarah Langs
6. Tigers (AL Central)
Currently: 1st place, 2.5 games ahead of CLE
Remember “pitching chaos,” the all-hands-on-deck tactic that sparked the Tigers’ improbable postseason run last season? That’s a relic in Detroit these days. Instead, the Tigers are rolling out one of the best rotations in baseball -- their starters have posted a 3.25 ERA, the fourth-best mark in the Majors.
It’s not a surprise that Tarik Skubal (2.21 ERA) is still pitching like an ace. But former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize (2.12 ERA) is breaking out, Reese Olson (2.99 FIP) is healthy, and the reunion with Jack Flaherty (28.8% K rate) looks like a shrewd signing.
There’s plenty of reason for optimism in the lineup, too: Detroit’s team-wide .748 OPS is a significant improvement from last year’s .685 mark. A resurgent Spencer Torkelson (.530 SLG), Kerry Carpenter (.524 SLG), and 2024 All-Star Riley Greene form a formidable core. There’s enough talent here to support a pitching staff that gives the Tigers a chance to win every night, making them legit AL Central contenders.
-- Jared Greenspan
7. Padres (NL West)
Currently: 2nd place, 1.5 games behind Dodgers
With five of the six current division leaders already off the board, I’m going with the Padres, who own the third-best winning percentage (.645) in the game behind the rival Dodgers and the Mets. Of course, surpassing the defending World Series champions -- not to mention the Giants and D-backs -- in the NL West won’t be easy. But consider this a vote of confidence in a San Diego club that has shown it can hang with anyone.
True, the Padres’ offense has had trouble scoring at times in 2025, despite the best efforts of MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. But with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez back from the IL and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jackson Merrill set to be activated soon, there’s reason to believe things could pick up in that department. Meanwhile, the Friars boast the stingiest pitching staff in baseball, having allowed an MLB-low 3.0 runs per game. The strength of San Diego’s staff could prove to be a key separator between the Padres and Dodgers, whose much ballyhooed rotation is suddenly filled with question marks.
-- Thomas Harrigan
8. Brewers (NL Central)
Currently: 3rd place, 4 games behind Cubs
The Cubs are off to a hot start at the plate and in the standings, and they routed the Brewers on Friday night to continue their impressive early-season run. But Milwaukee faced an avalanche of injuries -- particularly in the starting rotation -- during the first month of the season, and there is hope on the horizon in that regard.
Several injured Brewers are on the mend and could return to action soon, the most prominent being two-time All-Star right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who could soon make his first appearance on a Major League mound since Sept. 2023.
Woodruff’s return should provide an immediate boost to the rotation and the offense just has too much talent to not break out. Last season, it was the Brewers’ bats that led the way to a division title, a departure from what had been a pitching-first club in recent years.
With young phenom Jackson Chourio in his second MLB season after an impressive rookie campaign, Brice Turang off to a great start (.315 BA, .370 OBP), Christian Yelich showing glimpses of his former self in recent seasons (.315/.406/.504 slash line in 73 games prior to back surgery last year) and William Contreras coming off a career year, it’s only a matter of time before the lineup gets hot again.
-- Manny Randhawa
9. Mariners (AL West)
Currently: 1st place, 2 games ahead of A’s
The Mariners haven’t won their division since Ichiro Suzuki was a superstar rookie … and he’s going into the Hall of Fame this summer. So yeah, it’s been a while. That history, including some disappointing close calls in recent seasons, makes this feel like a risky selection. Still, at pick No. 9, I’ll be happy getting a team that is currently in first place, with the best run differential in a division that lacks a clearly superior opponent.
While Seattle started 4-8, it’s an MLB-best 15-4 since April 9. The most encouraging aspect of that burst is that the Mariners rank second in the Majors in run scored (125) during that time, a refreshing development for an offense that struggled mightily for much of 2024. (Seattle’s March/April OPS was .754, up from .649 a year ago.) While Jorge Polanco (probably?) isn’t going to hit like Aaron Judge all season, Julio Rodríguez has a history of heating up as the season goes along. With Cal Raleigh looking like an MVP candidate, J.P. Crawford bouncing back and George Kirby due to return sometime in May, Seattle could be here to stay, despite some concerning injuries.
-- Andrew Simon
10. Rangers (AL West)
Currently: 4th place, 4 games behind Mariners
Sure, the Rangers are in fourth place. For now. This team has too much firepower to stay there. It would help if Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford can stay off the injured list the rest of the way, and if Marcus Semien, Adolis García and Joc Pederson can pick things up … but once this lineup starts clicking, it's going to be the best in the division.
The rotation is up there, too. Jacob deGrom is starting to look more like Jacob deGrom. Nathan Eovaldi is still more than solid, and Tyler Mahle's been surprisingly excellent. Now, Texas probably has some work to do in the bullpen, but that's what the Trade Deadline is for.
As far as the competition … the Mariners look good right now but they haven't been able to close out this division in almost 25 years. The Astros don't have quite as many stars as they used to. The A's are frisky but maybe not ready yet. Just wait -- this Rangers team is going to look like the 2023 World Series champion Rangers team by the end of the year.
-- David Adler